Quote from: billyjoeallen on April 28, 2014, 11:59:04 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 28, 2014, 07:07:18 AM

Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 10:14:30 AM

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition breaching 435
- someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me PM
- much better than 1:1 odds for me

Windjc's proposal:

Quote from: windjc on April 26, 2014, 03:30:48 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 26, 2014, 03:25:51 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 03:20:44 PM

Quote from: windjc on April 26, 2014, 02:51:59 PM

Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2014, 01:41:28 PM

In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.

In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.

What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.

I think you will offer an unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.

But let me know.

Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.

Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?

Since you are too chicken s*** Wink

to make a bet, here's one for you.

Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days

If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.

Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition breaching 435 and breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed for me only, with insult
- public
- 1:1 odds, with charity clause

* *

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.

The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply? Roll Eyes

).

In the meanwhile nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

I don't care about the bet.

If everybody took that much space just to state that a particular topic does not interest him, this thread would be 6465 pages long.. oh wait

Quote

What have you learned from it?

That scenario thinking and probabilities are very hard to understand for many people, even in threads dedicated to it. Further education is necessary, but any serious and accountable predictions by anyone should be taken here, with a consistent and uniform methodology, and cash prizes (all entry fees go to the pot + my 1,000mBTC bounty and perhaps windjc's also..)