Quote from: mjdamgaard on Today at 11:37:01 AM

You seem to assume here again, at least during these few paragraphs, that the attackers try to steal a larger share of the newly minted coins (as miners). This is not their objective. Their objective is to steal a lot more than that via trades that they then rewrite afterwards, keeping only their ingoing transactions. (And their ultimate objective is actually to cause a crash of the cryptocurrency, assuming that this is what will happen.)

if they keep only their own tx. they cant do double spends..
remember they can only double spend their own value they control so if they are not reversing their own transactions then they cant double spend
also by reversing other peoples transactions they cant then take control of other peoples. because the malicious side does not have the key to sign the fund of other people. so in no way can a malicious side steal funds by reversing other peoples transactions.
emphasis a double spend is only able to happen by the malicious side reversing its own transaction and then re-spending their own value

to which i explained to achieve that the people in the attack need to convert their btc to goods/services/other currency. receive those goods/services/other currency in a settled final manner.. and THEN they can undo the blocks containing the transactions they want to reverse knowing they already have the value settled in another form(goods/fiat/altcoin). to then know when the btc transaction is reversed they can then respend the btc again to a different recipient.. to double spend that same btc

Quote from: mjdamgaard on August 06, 2024, 12:50:55 PM

Quote from: franky1 on August 06, 2024, 10:07:21 AM

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but you would only be able to do this effectively if you when spending first, received goods or services or another currency to keep that value. to then reverse the transaction to then spend the transaction amount again to double your value.

When analyzing a 51% attack, is it normally assumed that attackers need to trade the stolen bitcoin for other goods/services/currency due to the fact that the value of BTC might crash as a consequence. Is this why you say that they would need to trade to other goods/services/currency?

its not about "crashing" its about the method to double spend btc successfully via block re-orgs

you keep avoiding one point by presenting another point to attempt to evade running scenarios to find out your first point falls flat. you have done this many times now.. evaded one scenario by trying to play dumb and try to raise another scenario to then evade that scenario by taking it in context of another scenario

so lets make it clear

if your only scenario result you want is a market crash attempt, lets fully delve into that scenario
firstly when adding another 50% of network hashrate. it means the honest network has double the competition. AND EMPHASIS: half as much reward and double the cost of mining due to higher difficulty due to the competition..
this pushes up the basic value:premium window which then causes all those assessing the acquisition methods of btc to then have a higher speculative price expectation which means all those wanting btc would be more willing to buy higher and the sellers wont sell for less but instead only willing to sell for more.. this would cause the market to go UP

as for you saying about re-orging blocks to then mess with the market to crash it.
to be successful with that when the malicious pools deposits coin into an exchange. it has to wait for the exchange to deem the funds are settled with them (6 confirms for any significant amount deposited) the malicious users would then have to waste their deposit balance on orders to force a crash. and then remove the other currency to then re-org the blockchain to undo the deposit. so they can then do it again
however exchanges will notice these tactics and just block/ban users abusing their balance database and market orders

you really need to learn the difference between the blockchain transactions which are not the market price orders vs the CEX balance and market order databases which are not the blockchain
then run scenarios on whats actually involved in doing an attack and how things operate

dont just side step things simply because it doesnt appease you hopes that people simply dont say ethereum is king
instead learn the mitigating factors of reality

like i said if you are attempting to re-org the blockchain in a 51% attack to double spend funds to continually crash the market. you need to learn how the delay of the confirms. the length of "catch up" time and also th mitigating factors a CEX can put inplace in regards to its balance and market order database and services decisions all are factors

aswell as if those now highly invested in bitcoin hardware wont want to lose their investment. they would soon realise that being malicious harms themselves more
...

Quote from: mjdamgaard on Today at 11:00:31 AM

Suppose that I am a car factory that produces 1000 cars at a cost of $50,000 apiece, and suppose then that it turns out that there is, say, a security flaw (faulty steering or whatever) that almost kills the demand for the car, and that people do not want to buy the cars for more than, say, $20,000. Then I can't just wait for the demand to magically increase to allow me to sell them for >$50,000 at some point. Instead I will be forced to sell them at $20,000.

heres where you go wrong
if there is a real world physical limit of material cost across the globe that the cheapest new car on the planet can be built for is $50k
it doesnt matter that people prefer to want a new car for $20k.. they wont get it. car dealerships wont sell a car at $30k less than material cost.. thats just bad business
what you find is that there is across the globe a different material cost of manufacturing cars of $50k-$300k and so if there is a low demand for new cars or where people want to pay the least possible.. the MARKET price will be around the $60k-$75k for most of the period and occassionall try to test the bottom of $50k
when demand rises then the price can go premium upto $300k