Quote from: Sim_card on August 07, 2024, 09:01:07 PM

Quote from: MainIbem on August 07, 2024, 08:45:24 PM

Quote from: Ruttoshi on August 07, 2024, 07:52:45 PM

Quote from: Jegileman on August 07, 2024, 07:08:23 PM

One of the major thing an investor should know especially the newbies coming into cryptocurrency is to have a strong and prepared mindset that when bitcoin price dips, it should be an opportunity for us to buy more and not to panic into selling off my portfolios. A newbie that is able to conquer this in their mind, they will never have problems with the dip. 1BTC will always be 1BTC unless you take a portion of it and sells out that its value will reduce. A projected profit target should be reached before you sell off your bitcoin.Many dips have come and gone and bitcoin always bounce back. The enthusiasm in bitcoin has made it an asset that many people have believe in to always bounce back even when the future of it is not certain by anyone. Owning bitcoin for several years is not a guarantee that they can be able to withstand the market conditions, if their mind is not prepared for it, they’ll always feel bad and have a reason to sell some part of it off.

The only nest time to sell part of your bitcoin is when you have already have more than enough Bitcoin in your portfolio that you might no need to buy more but just to hodli. And that does not mean that you should sell all your bitcoin because you have gotten the profit that you need from your bitcoin portfolio but only sell little portion that will not affect the size of your bitcoin portfolio at all, so that you can continue hodli your bitcoin for more compounding profit in future.

Well, it depends on the individual or institutions choice, someone can have more than enough Bitcoin in their portfolio and decide to diversify to other good investment option, it's a nice idea and they won't really be affected by their choice since they've already accumulated enough Bitcoin and they could still buy back when an opportunity comes or when they make profit from the new investment. But if you noticed, most institutions have refused to sale even when they're holding enough and are accumulating more instead. For instance, according to JP Morgan, institutions accumulated more while retails sold aggressively, they sold about $1b while institutions accumulated up to $14b, you can see that even with the rate of the recent dip, top holders accumulated more while lots of small and medium scale holders panic sold, that's the more reason I think new Bitcoin investors are more prone to panic sale than old investors.

Diversifying is good when you have more than enough Bitcoin but it is not everyone that has the proper knowledge to diversify and do it correctly. Also, I don't think that it is good to sell part of your bitcoin for diversifying sake but rather the funds that you are putting in bitcoin should be put into another investment since you feel you already have enough Bitcoin. Selling bitcoin to invest in another business can lead to running down your bitcoin investment because you might sell too much just to grow the new investment.

It is difficult to know what any of you guys are talking about overaccumulation or even diversification without some kinds of examples, and some of the ideas of overaccumulation and/or when the ideas of diversification might trigger might not even make a lot of sense without showing some kind of example of how bitcoin might have had appreciated during a time in which it was accumulated and contributed to a guy having had reached an overaccumulation status.

Let's say for example, a guy hears about bitcoin during the 2017 price run, and maybe this guys is in his early 30s, and he had already been working and investing fairly aggressively around 15% of his income in various traditional assets over the previous 10 years, so maybe at that time in late 2017 and going into early 2018 his investment portfolio was close to $100k and his income was around $40k per year... So when he decides that he was going to get into bitcoin, he considers that he wants to try to reach a target of 15% of his investment portfolio invested into bitcoin, which he considers might be a target of getting his BTC size around $20k-ish, if he adds $20k to the $100k of his already existing investment portfolio instead of taking from the $100k, so then he figures that if he invests aggressively into bitcoin, he might be able to reach his investment target in about 14 months, but he would have to invest somewhere in the ballpark of $300 per week, which he considers to be achievable based on his income and based on his various resources, including that he already had strong cash management systems (and back up funds) in place. So based on his calculations he figures that if he starts investing $300 per week in January 2018, he will reach is goal of having have invested $20k in bitcoin and his original $100k in his traditional investment portfolio (and whatever that might appreciate during the year) by around April of 2019.. so he considers his investment portfolio should be in the ballpark of $120k by April 2019 and whatever other ups or downs that might happen in the market during that time.

He kind of needs to see how everything goes over his initial allocation and investment period, and maybe after the whole initial investment period he can consider and/or reassess where he is at (and historically we could se that $300 per week during that period would have gotten him to about 3.36 BTC by April 1, 2019.)

Maybe at that point in April 2019, he might want to reduce some of his investment levels in BTC back down to more of a maintenance level, so he might consider how much he is going to continue to invest into bitcoin as compared to his other investment.. so if he ends up no longer wanting to invest into his traditional assets that might be one thing, but if for example his employer has matching funds on a 401k retirement fund, he might still want to invest into his traditional investments based on the matching that his employer is doing... .. so maybe after April 2019, de decides to reduce his investments to $150 per week, and half goes to bitcoin and half goes to his 401k retirement funds. So that would be $75 per week into each. We can look back historically, and we can see that investing $75 per week into bitcoin from April 1, 2019 to present would have had caused the guy to invest around $21k into bitcoin and he would have had accumulated a total of 1.2 BTC.

So maybe by now the guy has around $150k or maybe close to $200k in his traditional investments, and he has around $41k invested into bitcoin which had accumulated a total of about 4.56 BTC (3.36 BTC + 1.2 BTC). Had the guy overaccumulated enough in order to start to sell or what does he do? 4.56 BTC is worth about 172k in regards to its 200-WMA and $252k spot price, and maybe it is around 50% of the overall investment portfolio, even though the guy's initial target was to reach around a 15% allocation into bitcoin, so surely he is overallocated, but is he so overallocated to justify selling BTC or perhaps just continuing to invest in BTC or to divert into traditional investments. The answer seems somewhat individual specific, even with a guy who spent 14 months investing into bitcoin pretty aggressively and where he did not stop investing into bitcoin over the years and perhaps according to his own budget, he is thinking that he needs to continue to invest into bitcoin (and maybe he might or might not want to continue to invest into his traditional investments), but he might not consider himself to be at or near fuck you status until the 200-WMA value of his BTC has reached somewhere between $800k and $1million, so either the BTC price has to go up by another 5x and/or he has to continue to accumulate BTC, yet it still can be a bit unclear if such guy even reached an overaccumulation status that would allow him to feel that it is o.k. to start to sell BTC at any time of his own choosing.

Maybe some other example can be given in regards to when such overaccumulation status might have had been considered to have been achieved that gives some perceived liberties in the selling of BTC department whether it might be considered as price based sales or time based sales.

I think that when we might be considering overaccumulation status, we might need to consider targets of the individual, budgets of the individual and also there are likely not too many scenarios in which DCAing into bitcoin is going to get anyone to an over accumulation status unless there might be some ways that the guy is able to front-load his BTC investment whether through DCA and/or through lump sum investing or perhaps if there might have had ended up playing out some great amount of BTC price appreciation that ends up causing the BTC portion of the holdings to become way disproportionate to other assets in the investment portfolio.

I would not mind seeing some numbers that might help to justify what a guy might conclude to be an overaccumulation status.. and maybe even some ideas in regards to how a guy gets to such status and how much time it might take to get there.

Quote from: ginsan on August 07, 2024, 09:08:03 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 06, 2024, 11:08:58 PM

Quote from: ginsan on August 06, 2024, 09:24:44 PM

In situations like this, it is worth mentioning that we need a strong mentality when facing sudden market changes. Therefore, I always say to prepare yourself as best as possible before starting to invest in Bitcoin. This means that you have to be able to survive all the fud, drastic declines and also be able to fight the worries that surround your mind.

I like to say. Get the fuck started investing in bitcoin, and prepare as you go, including that the ONLY preparation that you need prior to investing into bitcoin is to figure out that you have a disposable income, and if you do, then you can get started. Now the devil is in the details regarding how much to invest, and how messed up your cashflow management (and psychology) might be, yet if you have a disposable income, then you have the prerequisites for getting started investing in bitcoin and you should be able to figure out the various other details along the way... hopefully you are not a dummy. I am not going to presume normal people to be dummies who are not able to figure out the extent to which they have a disposable income or not. If they cannot figure out if they have a disposable income or not or they make mistakes in terms of figuring out that part, then that's on them, and seems to be part of basic knowledge that I am going to presume that an overwhelming majority of normies already have.. even if there are a lot of dummies in the world, that's on them to figure out basics of whether they can start out with investing $10 per week into bitcoin, $100 per week or some other amount that is reasonable for their individual situation.

Really like the ideas you give and I always remember to invest with money that we never use for living needs. That way, our investment will run smoothly without burdening our daily finances. If this is properly implemented, an investor will have a strong mentality in any condition. I remember when you mentioned the reserve money or emergency cash that we set up in the bitcoin investment strategy and of course now might be a good time to do that or take the money that we set aside to buy aggressively. But it is also very true as you said that the aggressive level is timeless or we can do it if we want to execute it and basically our income stream increases at that time.

But yes, it's difficult for me to put it together correctly but I like your very directed explanation. Of course we remain Hold in whatever conditions we will face during the investment journey and of course we get a lot of good input from you.

Even with your timeline registered on the forum, we can likely give examples of guys who might have had been modestly aggressive through the past 8-ish years and made a lot of progress in bitcoin accumulation based on merely a modest level of consistent aggressiveness in their bitcoin accumulation. Yet surely there are also guys who have been registered during your timeline yet might not have had made a lot of progress in their in their bitcoin accumulation in their earlier years of being registered on the forum, so at some point, they might have had come to realize to become more aggressive and more consistently aggressive based on their own cashflow management implementations rather than trying to figure out BTC price moves that might or might not end up happening but instead trying to figure out how much of their budget they are able to target towards ongoing bitcoin accumulation.. and sure within such a potentially systematic approach they can classify their money as DCA, lump sum or buy dips with the realization that the buying on the dips method does require holding some money back which may or may not be a good idea for the brand new investor, but a person who had been accumulating for a while might be in a better financial position to be holding some back for either buying on dips or other ways that he might allocate his various reserve funds related to living his life and having money for things that he wants or needs.

For example, maybe a guy had been saving up to buy a motorcycle and he has around $1k in the fund, and the dip comes, he might decide to use half of that money to buy bitcoin rather than keeping it to buy the motorcycle, so after he uses half of the money to buy bitcoin, he realizes that he is going to need another few months to get his motorcycle fund back up to its previous level after he had take half of the money away from it to buy bitcoin on the dip.

Quote from: Publictalk792 on Today at 01:56:10 AM

Quote from: adultcrypto on August 07, 2024, 11:59:15 PM

The bitcoin market have been generous to investor this year both those using the DCA method and those buying the dips, none have been left behind and all of them have had the opportunity to buy as much bitcoin as the desire. As of this moment, I don't this moment I don't think there is anyone that will feel left behind yet unless those still sitting in the fence or those weak hands that panicked and sold when the market started correcting. Those are the true losers that might end of regretting when the market is fully recovered. I will continue to maintain my DCA method to take full advantage of this golden opportunity the market offered us again to buy bitcoin around $50k, a price I thought we had passed and was not coming back to. The market behavior also made me realized that the mistake people make trying to predict the market is really a terrible and unnecessary one. The focus should always be to buy and HODL and allow the market develop accordingly

Yes I also think bitcoin market has been good to investors this year. Both people who invest little at a time and those who buy when price is low have been able to get bitcoin. But people who sold when price went down or are still waiting might be sorry later. I think it is best to keep investing little at a time and holding onto bitcoin instead of trying to guess what market will do. This way we can benefit from long term growth of bitcoin. Right now the price is around $57k which is a good time to buy.

It seems to me that there are frequently so many opportunties to buy, and each cycle seems to provide a lot of those kinds of opportunties to buy in, even though so many folks fail/refuse to take such opportunities to continue to accumulate or to start to accumulate in the event that they have not already gotten some BTC to help to prepare themselves for UP...so frequently it can take a bit of time for the UP to end up playing out, which yeah, should be considered as opportunities or ongoing opportunities... though we can never know how long such opportunities will last and/or if the opportunities may or may not get even better, so perhaps part of the problem continues to be the failure to take advantage of opportunities out of hope that they will get better, which may or may not end up happening.