Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 07:51:03 PM

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 10:01:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 10, 2024, 06:02:17 PM

Each of us still has to figure out how to balance where we keep our value. Sure one of the problems with new cars is that they are expensive from the start, but they also tend to depreciate quite a bit in the first few years, so anyone in their earlier stages of building wealth should not be buying new cars anyhow.. they are not very good financial investments, even if they might be practical and status symbols, and sure there could be cases that you prefer to buy new cars and then just hold onto them for 10-15 years before buying another new car, and so new cars bought with long time horizons might not be poor investments even if they depreciate a lot the first few years of ownership.

My father bought a new 1300 cc Car in 2008 and I inherited that car. For last 5 or 7 years I am trying to get a new one because that car is now getting old and requires frequent maintenance. It's better to buy new car since it doesn't require frequent maintenance for initial 10 years. The idea is to get new car for next 15 years at least.

Sometimes it can pay for itself to upgrade your car, yet there are a lot of trade offs, so you don't necessarily need to go from the current car that you have and into a new car, yet surely the market for used cars is going to vary in terms of what kind of quality car you might be able to get in terms of how much the price difference might be between new and used... but yeah, if you have a decently long timeline, such as 15 years or more, then it may well be worth it to start out with a new car and then you already know what you are starting with.. presuming that you sufficiently understand that some brand of cars might have better quality than other brands.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 10:01:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 10, 2024, 06:02:17 PM

There could be some danger if you believe that all of your cash needs to be working all of the time, and one of the aspects of an emergency fund is that it is in a kind of liquid form that can be used right away, if you lose your job (so you suffer from cashflow income issues) or some kind of additional expenses suddenly come up. You have to figure out some kind of a balance in regards to where you keep your various forms of cash that might be back up funds for short-falls or if some of your saved funds might have some kind of a target for something that you plan to purchase, with perhaps some kind of a tentative date regarding when you would need that cash or if you might have it working for you up until that date, also can be problematic to put your some of your extra cash into a some kind of a working fund if the fund has potential volatility in terms of the timeline that you expect to need such cash.

If you want your cash to be readily available to you then best is to store it in Banks like National Saving Scheme, this readiness comes at cost of depreciation in value. But if you don't want depreciation in value then you have to invest it in sectors like stock, real estate or Bitcoin, all these sectors have some kind of volatility attached with them. So it's up to you where you want your cash to be.
Whether we like it or not we still are dependent on Banks for managing our cash.

In some sense, you seem to be glossing over the concept of cash, including that if you have emergency funds or various kinds of cash, they need to be held in the actual currency of the expenses, and yeah, I know that some folks are leery about holding their own national currency, so they might keep some of their cash in dollars. Whether you hold physical cash or you hold your cash in a bank, that is up to you. There is no one correct way of holding cash as you seem to suggest that you have to keep your cash in a bank. Surely, you might need to consider how easy it might be to get at your cash in terms if you were to have to make payments or if you lost your job or the ways that you usually deal with your cash.. if you tend to get paid in cash or if you receive bank deposits, so you have systems set up for how you deal with your cash.

I was not suggesting that any of your cash - including emergency funds be held in other ways, though of course, when I listed out the various reasons that you might need extra cash (listed below) or that you might have various categories of cash that have different priorities and timelines, that might contribute to your holding those funds within an investment rather than as cash.. so you might run risks depending on how you hold those funds other than holding them in cash considering whether there might be any kind of a lock up period or if there might be costs to move the money in and out of the various ways of holding the value or investing it.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 10:01:38 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 10, 2024, 06:02:17 PM

By the way, I understand that cars might not be the only thing that you might be saving for that might have a relatively short time horizon, yet I personally consider that you are not actually investing into bitcoin unless you have a 4-10 year or longer timeline on any money that you put into bitcoin, so if you choose to put some of the money that you are saving into bitcoin for less than a 4 year time horizon, then you are gambling/trading rather than investing, and sure it may well end up working out for you... and so if it is something that you are willing to do with some of that money that you are saving for a car or for whatever else, then that's your choice, but if you get sucked into some kind of a trap that you are frequently putting your short term money into bitcoin, you might get stuck with BTC price moves against you regarding some or all of that extra money that you might be putting into bitcoin that you might need in the shorter term... and yeah, you could have all kinds of categories of extra money that you are stocking up for 1) car, 2) vacation 3) being able to take your spouse out for dinner, 4) furniture, 5) computer/phone 6) house maintenance 7) braces for your child, 8.) Bicycle for your kid, 9) etc.. and yeah those various goods/services have different timelines and so perhaps differing levels of priorities or urgency too in terms of reaching some of them.. and surely some of those categories of savings you might consider that for sure you need to keep that in cash.. and others you might be able to be a bit more loosey goosey about when you are going to make such purchase(s).. so if your timeline is less urgent, you could take the chances with some of that to put into bitcoin or into some other investment that might be more volatile than cash and also might end up causing you to not be able to sell if the price of the investment that was supposed to be your savings moves against you after you put your extra (purportedly earmarked) money into it.

When I was single I didn't cared much about savings or cash in hand but once I got married and had family I frequently need cash to counter things you mentioned in above 9 points (may be others too feel same). With Bitcoin we already had consent that investing in it will be beneficial if we have a strategy that is spread over a longer period of time. So yes anyone who want to invest or save need to find a balance between both.

The more things that we have going on in our lives, then potentially the more complicated our finances become, which likely contributes to the need to hold more and more kinds of reserve funds, whether you are referring to having family obligations, owning a business, various investments that you have, various ways that you might use debt and/or other ways that your finances might become more complicated and require that you hold more reserve funds and even more variety of kinds of reserve funds - unless you want to end up not being able to meet your financial obligations and/or other ways of potentially getting reckt...so also with keeping track of various expenses that you have, if your finances are more complicated you might have to project out your cashflows for longer than 1-3 months and you might have to project out 12-18 months or longer, and of course, the closer in time your cashflow projections, the more accurate they have to be and the further out cashflow projections can be more general, yet they should be in the ballpark of being correct or otherwise, you will potentially end up with shortfalls in your income meeting expenses, and at the same time, if you were going to have an error in one direction or another, you should hopefully prefer to have the error being on the side of having extra cash available rather than not enough cash available and end up getting reckt because you errored in the wrong direction or you were living in a fantasy in terms of "everything working itself out."

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 10:23:52 AM

BTC spot ETFs have obviously brought a change to the market, but it should be remembered that they are used by people who only want profit and who are not interested in Bitcoin in any other context.

Are you just making things up? Surely there are going to be some of the earlier entrants to the BTC spot ETFs that might have gotten in ahead of everyone else in order to potentially front run the investment into BTC, yet there are more and more Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) and related kinds of accounts that are spreading out the availability of the BTC spot ETFs, which truly would be across a vast swath of investor types who might have had otherwise gotten into BTC - but then since BTC comes up as an option for their pension funds, institutions and governments, or within 401k plans (or other packaged index funds), those kinds of investors are likely a lot more stickier than typical retail buyers of BTC or even some of BTCs demand being taken up by some folks trading direct spot BTC or even using various leverage/margin tools to get in and out of their bitcoin positions.

You can speculate how you like in terms of who the bitcoin spot ETF purchasers might be, yet it seems to me that they are not as much the in and out types as you are making them out to be.

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 10:23:52 AM

Therefore, we see that every time when spot ETFs record an inflow, the price of BTC rises, and when they record an outflow, the price drops. Considering everything that is happening in the world in the context of economics and politics and war conflicts, I am quite satisfied with the price of BTC at the moment.

Sure we have some indication of inflows and outflows of ETFs, yet you seem to be reading way too much into whatever supposed outflows that you are supposedly seeing. Overall the amount of inflows into BTC spot ETFs remains quite considerable and likely going to continue to increase, even if there are some outflows from time to time and even if there is some reflections that some of the ins and outs of the ETF flows also goes along with ups and downs in the BTC prices in the market. To me, it seems that you are committing one of the greatest fallacies of correlation equalling causation.

Look at the inflows and the outflows since January 11.. . .and you are claiming that there is some kind of a causation pattern?

https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 10:23:52 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 10, 2024, 08:52:38 PM

I’m going to stay positive and expect that in the new few months we leave this range behind and blast through the $70,000 zone into price discovery hitting multiple all time highs before the year is out. I know that 2025 is likely to be the peak of this cycle (and probably the second half of the year) but I expect us to start moving up soon. We should be past the $60,000’s now.

There is no reason not to be positive, we have good reasons to believe that history will repeat itself and that at some point a big bull run will follow. Honestly, the only thing that worries me is the situation surrounding the presidential elections in the US, because if Trump does not win, we all know that he and his voters will not accept it calmly, and every crisis in the US is reflected in the whole world.

You sound overly worried about one particular thing and you also seem to have a pretty narrow framing of the issue of various kinds of turmoils that exist in the world apart from USA presidential election concerns, (and I am not even proclaiming that there might not be some shenanigans going on), but hey, there is no reason for me to try to dissuade you from being worried this one thing that supposedly affect the world and/or the cornz (the topic of this thread).

Quote from: El duderino_ on Today at 10:40:32 AM

August tides could change…
Face melting pumps could appear.
Just out of nowhere

I am not discounting such claims, but I am also not holding my breath (since I don't wannabe die).

Quote from: vapourminer on Today at 01:41:48 PM

not enough melting
i will augment with acid
then melt down bigly

Goes with your namesake to just melt away.

Almost like a "poof," or a more graduated poof.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 06:35:22 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on August 10, 2024, 08:52:38 PM

Feels like we’ve been treading water since late February. Well we have been, haven’t we. Really hoping for some bullish momentum soon and a significant period of uppity. $61,000 seems very cheap, we’re still below the 2021 high, which is a bit pathetic really considering we now have Spot ETFs and institutional buying.

I’m going to stay positive and expect that in the new few months we leave this range behind and blast through the $70,000 zone into price discovery hitting multiple all time highs before the year is out. I know that 2025 is likely to be the peak of this cycle (and probably the second half of the year) but I expect us to start moving up soon. We should be past the $60,000’s now.

Check this out ...Jack Mallers (@strike) on Aug 9.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5K68hmUQtZql3y4n6taERa

TL;DR In his opinion 100-125K by the EOY and 500-700K peak THIS cycle. Would be nice, right? Grin

My comment: many people call for very lofty prices, but here we are, "fighting" in 55-74K "trenches" since March.
Maybe due to still high interest rates?
I see that EVERY time stock market needs liquidity, funds are selling bitcoin to give support to their stonks.

That said, we are roughly 43.5% year to date.
I run some quick math: in the last 5 years exactly, we are up from 10358 to 60300, roughly, which is 42.22% a year.
As you can see, the numbers are virtually identical: 5 year average and year-to-date, suggesting that we might not have much appreciation in the rest of 2024..

Of course, this could be a coincidence as numbers would shift as we proceed and we should have much better comparison when 5 year period would land on a march 2020 dip.
If, for example, we would be at 100k in march of 2025, then it would be 92.2% yearly since march of 2019 and almost exactly the same per year basis since Jan 2024.

Pick whatever scenario you like more, but both could happen-60-70K range until EOY and 100K in March of 2025 Cheesy

.

I must say.

You are all over the place with your scenarios and your logic (or lack thereof).

Sure spot price is all over the place, and so in some sense, we cannot exactly pinpoint where our peaks might end up.

If you tried the same math and science shenanigans with the 200-WMA, you surely would end up in a range of boring.. but surely UPpity.. which seems to be the main thing that many of us longer term coiners should be considering.. but hey whatever, peeps love to focus their lil selfies on tops.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 07:06:23 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:57:56 PM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 04:17:12 PM

[edited out]

yes i can weigh the air and hold a flame of fire 🔥

1 cu ft of air weights a surprising 36.53g
1 cu meter of air weights 1.28-1.29 kg
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-weight-of-a-cubic-metre-of-air-at-sea-level-and-normal-temperature
in "other" units Wink

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/BGP/PAT/Fuel_and_Air2_ans.htm

Technically speaking... What a bunch of party poops.

Fuck them if they can't take a joke. Grin

No offense meant.