Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 05:45:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 11, 2024, 04:51:58 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 11, 2024, 11:45:07 AM

🤔
I have some questions.

Why is Bitcoin going through mini-crashes, then they're followed by mini-surges? Who's selling large amounts of coins below $60,000, and who buys them back/places price back over $60,000?

Will the market actually give everyone another opportunity to see Bitcoin go below its 200-Weekly SMA again? The last time proved to be a very good buying opportunity.

I had been proposing bets that the spot price would not go below 20% above the 200WMA until after 2025, yet surely we have been getting pretty close to those numbers in recent times. Even though I am willing to bet, I know that I could end up being wrong, so I would not be betting very much or even beyond 50/50 odds.. .. but yeah, when folks are proclaiming super low BTC price dips, they tend to back off of their assertions when you ask them to bet on their prognostication of such seemingly extreme dip numbers.

We know that there is an idea of cycles and what kind of a market we are in, too, but even the ideas of cycles could disappear, and we might not be in a bull market, even though it seems that we are, potentially until 2025-ish.. .

That's especially true currently now that the Bitcoin Spot ETF is open and available for institutions to enter/exit to and from Bitcoin positions. It may have changed the "cycles". Because if we were to base the current point of the cycle today from the last cycle, today would be a time during 2020 which were not testing the previous all time high.

Even though I am suggesting and maybe even proclaiming that cycles could disappear, I doubt that we are anywhere even close to having actual facts to support the actual disappearance of cycles, and likely we are not even going to know or realize that the cycles were no longer persuasive until much after such time that BTC's price performance no longer supports cycle theory... so in that regard, I think that it is way better to continue to presume that cycles are ongoing rather than prematurely proclaiming they had already disappeared based on current evidence (facts) in front of us... including that the mere fact that we reached an ATH prior to the halvening rather than after the halvening seems to amount to lame ass evidence to supposedly support the disappearance of the cycles.

In other words, we surely have BTC price moves that are up and they are down and the fractals seems to be within reasonable parameters to overlay the previous fractals, even if the magnitude of some of the price moves might be lesser or greater than they had been within earlier fractals.

Maybe no matter what, whether we get 4 year patterns, we still likely should be able to presume that the general pressures on BTC prices is going to continue in the upwards direction, even if we might have extended periods of suppression or maybe even price rises that fail to correct back down within what we had expected to be our cyclical time frame.

Another combating theory concerns power law theory versus stock to flow, and surely, I still like to assert that stock to flow is a great way of looking at bitcoin price performance, even if we might not be able to identify with any precision the multiples and/or the magnitudes of the price cycles, there are folks that argue that stock to flow just falls within a powerlaw curve and merely complicates the powerlaw dynamics by adding more largely irrelevant variables to the equation (suggesting that the 4-year cycle is mostly irrelevant).. In the end, I personally give few shits regarding whether powerlaw might be more true than stock to flow, I still consider the 4-year cycles to remain valuable in terms of looking at the BTC price moves, even if there remains a bit of fictional inabilities to really tie such 4-year cycles to actual real world BTC price dynamics..

Here are a couple of recent podcast interviews in which Giovanni Santostasi argues that power law supersedes and is more important and relevant than his claims of stock to flow's inferior adaptation of power law.

Simply Bitcoin -
https://overcast.fm/+AA1uZKBe3D8

Crypto Voices
https://overcast.fm/+AANK1lG6bqA

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 05:45:13 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 11, 2024, 04:51:58 PM

Furthermore, it seems pretty short-sighted to be selling at these prices or the sub $60ks that you mentioned, yet we know that prices move because people have differing opinions about fair market prices, and some people end up being wrong in their assessment, views and actions, yet in most cases, we don't know who was wrong until later down the road... all of us hope that we are on the correct side, especially if we have put money on our views, and failing to buy bitcoin might well also be one of those where folks have put money (even if they think that they haven't.. when the price goes up, those kinds of dollar worshipers frequently wished that they had some BTC, so they could sell it.. for higher than they paid for it... hahahahaha).

Surely all of us who are buying or holding onto our BTC hope that we are on the correct side of matters, yet there are no guarantees, even though historically the buyers and holders have been disproportionately more correct than those who had failed/refused to take a sufficient/adequate bitcoin position. Bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem any weaker, and there seem to be a lot of ways that its investment thesis is way stronger than it had been historically, even if the upside potential (in terms of percentage moves) is not as great as it had been in earlier times.

That's true, but Bitcoin may still have more upside than most investments you could find in legacy markets. Cool

I am not even suggesting that there is any better place to put your money apart from bitcoin, even though I also would argue that anyone is going to be foolish if they are not attempting to maintain some kind of balance in regards to having assets in cash and/or cash related traditional investments in order to attempt to account for needs to be able to live in the real world with real world expenses that are likely mostly reflected in dollars and having a decent amount of practicality to have cashflows and/or capital that is held in dollars and/or dollar-related assets - even when we know that the dollar is being debased anywhere between 3% and 20% per year depending on how such debasement is measured.

Quote from: SatoPrincess on Today at 01:27:09 PM

Quote from: Roseline492 on Today at 01:06:29 PM

The extent at which most people talk about always buying at dip can be somehow discouraging to most people in terms of changing there focus from regular accumulation to buy only at dip because they always sounds very convincing as if buying at dip is what guarantee there increment of there investment portfolio, sometimes I feel that most of those who always talk about buying only the dip has little understanding about investment if not they would have only seen that dip is just a temporary opportunity brought through the Bitcoin price drops, so at that moment those who have extra funds will increase there investment or buy at once and move on there DCA instead of just depending on the dip.

It is important to buy the dip if you want to be profitable. Just because you’re using DCA strategy doesn’t mean you should ignore basics of trading and buy bitcoin at ATH. Because if you buy bitcoin at the top, you will be losing money when the market corrects itself. For example you buy bitcoin at 70k, how long do you think you can hodl the bitcoins before the price breaks 70k zone? DCA strategy is good for newbies who are just starting out but for those who have the knowledge of trading, they apply DCA in a more efficient manner.

Perhaps your punchline that newbies should just employ DCA regularly without considering the dip is correct, yet you seem to presume that some people might be smarter than other people and including yourself into such smarter than other people group.

In other words, you still seem to be presuming that there is some kind of ability to know what is a dip and what is not a dip in BTC and to be able to predict BTC's price directions with any kind of level of meaningful accuracy, which seems a bit presumptuous and even lacking in persuasiveness that there might be some point that someone (whether you or anyone else) who becomes smarter than others about being able to see whether there might be a dip in the works or not and/or to fuck around with changing his/her BTC buy orders based on such supposed knowledge of where the BTC price might be going.

In the end, you can do what you like including if you believe that you are really effectively able to employ BTC buys (or refrain from doing such) based on your supposedly having some kind of meaningful and material insight into upcoming BTC price movements beyond guessing in a kind of 50/50 manner (or maybe 53/47 when you might happen to have a lot of confidence and/or supposed insight).

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on Today at 03:07:57 PM

Quote from: Tungbulu on August 11, 2024, 05:43:51 PM

[edited out]

Stop referring to bitcoin as cryptocurrency so that newbies or new investors in bitcoin will not see cryptocurrency as bitcoin. When you are talking about bitcoin investment, you need to be specific so that newbies or new investors in bitcoin will not be misled into investing in altcoins, thinking they are investing in bitcoin. There are so many threads in this forum that you can easily talk about cryptocurrency or altcoins, but as far as this thread is concerned, you should always refer to bitcoin as bitcoin so that we will not be distracted. We are all in this thread to share our ideas and experience in the bitcoin accumulation process and also learn from those who are more knowledgeable than us when it comes to bitcoin investment.

Of course, I agree with your overall point Mayor of ogba - which seems to be both that the term cryptocurrency is ambiguous and likely to be misleading, and also that talking about cryptocurrencies and/or shitcoins is more appropriately carried out in other threads.

On the other hand, any of us should feel free to present matters that we consider to be potentially relevant to this thread, and surely as long as we are not vague in our reference and we are not pumping shitcoins, there might be some cases in which references to shitcoins might be relevant to some reasonable point that a member might want to make, so in that regard, it surely would be best to try to clearly state how some shitcoins or some general reference to shitcoins might be relevant to a point that the member is wanting to make in connection to this thread and our attempts to mostly stay within the bounds of this thread that is focusing on bitcoin and bitcoin accumulation, and surely we have frequently seen that reference's to shitcoins might also get us off topic, since shitcoins tend to be traded rather than invested into so there tend to be several ways that too much discussion of shitcoins or even attempting to bring it up devolves into irrelevant off-topicness, especially in a thread like this one.