Since the price is currently $440 this represents a 22.72 x return over 3 years or approx. 283% per annum.
This tells me the market thinks there is a very very small chance of this event occurring - if it was probable the price would be a lot higher already.
I think not.
Next rise is just around the corner, and it will hit 5k or more.
I'm thinking it will be around this too. I have a hard time thinking that if it goes up again (in a similar fashion to all of the other violent increases before) it's going to blow past the old ATH, and $2,000 on it's way to somewhere in that $3k-5k range. Lots more eyes on BTC this year than there were last year.
There are around 400M $ already announced entering this year in the Bitcoin space.
There are a lot more, IMO, not announced yet entering the space.
More business accept or use them, more people have incentives to use, hold and buy bitcoins.
The only problem, for now, it is the current inflation rate of bitcoin: it is just 5% higher than the inflation rate of the $US.
This problem will solve itself around July 2016.