so actually I don't really see any risk on Bitcoin holding but most of the people are the ones that's bringing the risk to themselves.
Actually there is a risk in holding bitcoin, and it's called the risk of uncertainty. The fact that you are holding bitcoin doesn't mean that everything will only work out exactly as you are expecting, things could go south. There is no assurance that you are guaranteed of success in the end. There is every chance that things won't play out as expected. That's the risk in holding bitcoin. Since there is no form certainty of making profit from bitcoin in the end, that's why there is a risk of uncertainty in it.
Aren't we trying to set ourselves up in terms of some level of certainty in terms of as long as we do not leverage, then we should be able to be certain that the most that we could lose in our bitcoin investment is 100% of what we put in, so can't we consider our investment into bitcoin to be certain in that kind of a way?
In that regard I think we can consider our investment to be certain, because we already figured out what could happen to our investment in the worst case scenario. I think the only thing that should be considered as not being certain is the size of profit that we are expected to see from our investment on the long run. But it doesn't really matters since it is expected that our portfolio is going to be way better than it was at the beginning of our investment journey on the long run.
We also invest with an expectation that BTC prices are more likely to go up rather than go down, so even if we know that BTC prices are not certain (or guaranteed) to go up, we could still have some built in certainties in regards to the maximum that we would end up losing if bitcoin were to go to zero.
We also know that there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, but those scenarios are not stabs in the dark, so each of us should attempt to figure out some reasonable probabilities for the various scenarios so that we would thereafter be able to figure out our BTC investment allocation size in light of our view of various scenarios, including that we likely would not even be investing into bitcoin at all if we did not tentatively believe that bitcoin's chances of going up are greater than going down, especially in a 4-10 year or longer timeline. So, we might not be overly concerned about Bitcoin's price performance in the short term, even though surely we may well need to at least monitor some aspect of bitcoin's price performance over the years as we are investing into it (presumably at least DCA, buying the dip and/or lump sum strategies).
Of course there are better chances of bitcoin making more of an upward movements than downward movements on the long run. I believe this is the more reason why you and I have been an advocate of long term hold, in order for us to stand a better chance of getting something reasonable from our investment. There is need for long term investors to have this conviction that they are better of with bitcoin than without bitcoin. I think it's important for investors to have this conviction and certain level of certainties inside them, because it is what's going to keep driving us to keep investing in bitcoin and holding it for as long.