Quote from: Justbillywitt on September 03, 2024, 06:05:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 03, 2024, 12:49:16 AM

Quote from: Justbillywitt on September 02, 2024, 11:32:54 PM

Quote from: Roseline492 on September 02, 2024, 09:26:37 AM

so actually I don't really see any risk on Bitcoin holding but most of the people are the ones that's bringing the risk to themselves.

Actually there is a risk in holding bitcoin, and it's called the risk of uncertainty. The fact that you are holding bitcoin doesn't mean that everything will only work out exactly as you are expecting, things could go south. There is no assurance that you are guaranteed of success in the end. There is every chance that things won't play out as expected. That's the risk in holding bitcoin. Since there is no form certainty of making profit from bitcoin in the end, that's why there is a risk of uncertainty in it.

Aren't we trying to set ourselves up in terms of some level of certainty in terms of as long as we do not leverage, then we should be able to be certain that the most that we could lose in our bitcoin investment is 100% of what we put in, so can't we consider our investment into bitcoin to be certain in that kind of a way?

In that regard I think we can consider our investment to be certain, because we already figured out what could happen to our investment in the worst case scenario. I think the only thing that should be considered as not being certain is the size of profit that we are expected to see from our investment on the long run. But it doesn't really matters since it is expected that our portfolio is going to be way better than it was at the beginning of our investment journey on the long run.

Well, we can monitor our investment as it goes, and try to determine if there might be some reason that we might want to change our approach to the investment, so I am not even saying that there are not a lot of uncertainties, since anything regarding the future has a lot of uncertainties in it.

At the same time, we can recognize bitcoin as a good investment when we start, and we invest according to what we know when we get started with our investment into bitcoin, yet I doubt that very many of us would spend years and years studying bitcoin or even knowing it very well prior to getting stared investing into it, so we may well start out with a tentative premise that bitcoin is a decently good place to put value as compared with other places that we might want to put our value, yet as we continue to invest into bitcoin then hopefully we continue to study it, and thereby try to figure out if anything material in regards to our investment thesis is becoming stronger or weaker or if we might need to change our BTC accumulation approach, presuming that it may well take a while to get through our accumulation stages.

Even with our not knowing the future, surely there are a lot of decently good upside scenarios for bitcoin, so surely some variation of the upside scenarios have good odds of playing out during our time investing into bitcoin, whether that be 4-10 year or longer or some other kind of a longer term plan to stay into bitcoin and to reassess at various points down the road.

Quote from: Justbillywitt on September 03, 2024, 06:05:10 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 03, 2024, 12:49:16 AM

We also invest with an expectation that BTC prices are more likely to go up rather than go down, so even if we know that BTC prices are not certain (or guaranteed) to go up, we could still have some built in certainties in regards to the maximum that we would end up losing if bitcoin were to go to zero.

We also know that there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, but those scenarios are not stabs in the dark, so each of us should attempt to figure out some reasonable probabilities for the various scenarios so that we would thereafter be able to figure out our BTC investment allocation size in light of our view of various scenarios, including that we likely would not even be investing into bitcoin at all if we did not tentatively believe that bitcoin's chances of going up are greater than going down, especially in a 4-10 year or longer timeline. So, we might not be overly concerned about Bitcoin's price performance in the short term, even though surely we may well need to at least monitor some aspect of bitcoin's price performance over the years as we are investing into it (presumably at least DCA, buying the dip and/or lump sum strategies).

Of course there are better chances of bitcoin making more of an upward movements than downward movements on the long run. I believe this is the more reason why you and I have been an advocate of long term hold, in order for us to stand a better chance of getting something reasonable from our investment. There is need for long term investors to have this conviction that they are better of with bitcoin than without bitcoin. I think it's important for investors to have this conviction and certain level of certainties inside them, because it is what's going to keep driving us to keep investing in bitcoin and holding it for as long.

Sure, each of us who wants to invest, should be making some kind of an assessment of our choice to invest in bitcoin as compared with other places that we might put our value. If we came to bitcoin and we already had various investments, then we can choose whether to sell any of our existing investments once we had chosen to invest into bitcoin, or if we might just add bitcoin on as an investment and to also keep our traditional investments.

If any of us might come to bitcoin without hardly any other investments besides perhaps a month or so of cash savings and maybe some other token investments, then we may well have to choose whether we want to just invest into bitcoin and buttressing our cash reserves or if we want to include other kinds of investments. Personally, I believe that that there is no need to start with more than just bitcoin and cash, yet I don't maintain the position that remaining in ONLY bitcoin and cash would be sufficiently comfortable, so guys surely have to figure out the extent to which they might add other kinds of investments into their investment portfolio besides just bitcoin and cash.. and if so when to do it and how to do it, and I am not claiming to know how to answer those kinds of questions for anyone else, even though some comfort can come to spread out to merely bitcoin and cash, especially once a bitcoin stash might start to grow to sizes of more than a year of expenses.. and I am not even sure of the exact threshold since some guys might want to diversify his investment after merely getting 50% of his annual expenses in bitcoin, and some guys might not mind keeping some relatively higher level of his total investment portfolio only in bitcoin and cash.

Part of balance of any investment, including bitcoin is that if the investment ends up having a real great outcome (meaning upwards price appreciation) we do not need to invest high portion of our wealth into it in order to be able to end up still being able to profit stupendously from it. That is part of the greatness of having such an asymmetric bet, since some folks invested aggressively and some folks invested whimpily, and as long as they mostly remained invested, through the years they ended up profiting stupendously... so we have similar choices from the present and no guarantees of future performance while at the same time realizing that each of us are able to choose our own level of aggressiveness or whimpiness in regards to our bitcoin and the future will play out however it might and we might see down the road the degree to which our bitcoin allocation decisions ended up profiting for us.. perhaps at least as good as other places we could have had invested, or perhaps outperforming our other possible investment choices.

Quote from: Hatchy on September 03, 2024, 07:34:52 AM

Quote from: Mayor of ogba on September 03, 2024, 01:16:05 AM

Quote from: knowngunman on September 02, 2024, 10:39:11 AM

Leave reserve funds for people who are financially buoyant.

You are wrong, and your statement will mislead newbies or new investors who want to start investing their money in bitcoin to mess up their bitcoin accumulation journey. As long as bitcoin investment is concerned, no matter how shitty your income source could be, you should always keep emergency funds, reserve funds, and floats, which would allow you to accumulate bitcoin without depending on your bitcoin investment to solve your unforeseen problems.

Again reverse funds is something we keep talking about. Some investors just keeps making things complicated for them selfs.. If you don't have a steady source of income, why put all yojr funds in BTC? You should be able to think outside the box. There's no guarantee that your BTC investment would make you rich in the next couple of years. Again what will your BTC be to you when you are not healthy considerate or probably kicked the bucket? When there are so many things to solve personal with your money, first set your accumulation plans aside, there will always be a chance to invest or buy BTC.

Of course, there are always going to be opportunities to invest into bitcoin, yet it seems better to be buying bitcoin sooner rather than later, yet sure, each person has to make those kinds of choices for themselves, including but not limited to making trade-offs in regards to their spending to day versus investing versus spending in the future, and surely folks have differing timelines for which they need to account.

Delaying investing bitcoin or accumulating bitcoin has consequences, and each person can make those choices, and part of the reason that we ONLY have less than 1% of the world's population investing into bitcoin should help for guys to understand that we are still early to bitcoin, even though some people consider that as a sign that they can wait to accumulate, to be there seems to be some value in getting started sooner rather than later in terms of BTC accumulation, even if you might ONLY be able to currently start investing with $10 per week rather than $100 per week, and surely some times normal peeps have competing obligations for their money, including their own training, skills and money earning and building experiences.

Quote from: ginsan on September 03, 2024, 10:05:48 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 01, 2024, 11:43:49 PM

[edited out]

That's right sir, I continue to hold old investments and also continue to accumulate new investments in Bitcoin. Yes, the multiple profits may be seen when I reach target in investing in bitcoin. But with other people I certainly have no opinion if they want to switch their old investments to bitcoin because that's quite difficult to say. If they do that, it could be an amazing thing, right?

I doubt that we can really say what others should do, since sometimes there can additional costs to sell out of one investment and then to put that into bitcoin, yet someone who has a fairly decent already existing portfolio may well be in a better place to invest more aggressively into bitcoin, since they already have their whole traditional investments, whether they had been investing 10-20 years or some other amount, some person who already has other investments is in a way better place to come out somewhat aggressively in terms of their bitcoin allocation strategy - even though they still might not want to incur the costs of lump summing into bitcoin (if they have to sell some of their other assets), so it still might take them a whole year or two just to get their BTC allocation from zero and up to 10-15% of their total investment portfolio.

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I already had an investment portfolio that I had considered to be sufficiently strong enough to be able to support me if my other various investments and income had dried up. .so I considered it to be more or less at entry-level fuck you status, even though I was not really living off of it.... so at the same time, when I started buying bitcoin in late 2013 and through 2014, I thought that I was being somewhat aggressive in my BTC accumulation, yet in the beginning 6 months and then extension of another 6 months of my plan, I allocated to bitcoin based on a budget that I had given myself for the 6 months and divided it by 26 (for the amount that I could buy each week), and then extended another 6 months, so yeah, I was not sure exactly what my target was except for spending the budget that I had allocated for myself for each fo the 6 months periods, yet by the time we were getting close to the end of 2014 (so that would have had been a full year), I had somehow figured out that I had reached around 10% of my overall investment portfolio had been invested into bitcoin, so in that sense, I had concluded that I had largely accumulated enough.. and furthermore, I remember batting around some ideas about whether I might want to transfer some value from my 401k into buying bitcoin (which even though tempting, I ended up deciding against it based on my assessment that I largely had enough investment into BTC, and it took me a year to get there (which was 10%)).. .

Yet part of my problem was that I continued to invest into bitccoin through 2015 and 2016, and I ended up over accumulating (which largely ended up being around 13.5%-ish in late 2015).. which ended up NOT being a bad thing for me personally.. .but still a little bit of a decision to continue to buy bitcoin through 2015 and into 2016 even though in late 2014, I had largely assessed that I had already gotten enough.