Quote from: franky1 on September 05, 2024, 03:27:14 AM

what you also have to account for is when the hashrate drops by x% due to home hobby miners switching to altcoin or switching off asics due to lack of profit below $50k-$75k. this causes them to see that its cheaper to buy coin rather then mine it, which helps the market price support the new higher price points (above $50k instead of above $25k)

What I don't understand from your theory: where does the money (fiat) come from enabling the hobby miners to buy coins instead of mining? They have invested their money in hardware and electricity.

Big miners usually have cash reserves, but from my understanding that is meant mainly for emergencies. It may be used for extreme dip fishing (flash crashes), but I doubt this is a relevant factor for price. And hobby miners?

Altcoin mining may get them some cash, but first, this would be probably exchanged on the altcoin/BTC market and not the BTC/USD market, so I don't really see how this "bottom" mechanism could work (from my interpretation it would move down the altcoin/BTC price without moving the BTC/USD price much), and second, I don't really see that many strong altcoins you can mine with SHA-256 ASICs. But that specific point may be just my ignorance ...

Selling hobby miners hardware (usually older than pro-miners' gears) after a halving with underwhelming price performance may not be a cash cow either.

Quote from: franky1 on September 05, 2024, 03:27:14 AM

also those mining farms that can afford to continue and have planned the halving, see that the competing hobby miners have gone which means the share of sats per block give more sats per block to those that remain, thus raises their profit. and an opportunity for those that remain to then add a few more asics to the pool to take up the hashpower that the hobby miners left. this then causes the hashpower to recover quickly and now the remaining miners have more sats per block thus even more profitable

I agree here, however this would for me be the explanation that the hashrate doesn't fall much, much lower (20%+). This is because I think not only hobby miners should be driven out of the market by a halving but also the most inefficient tier of the "industrial" miners.

Quote from: franky1 on September 05, 2024, 03:27:14 AM

those weak hand(who panic at temporary swings of market and mining) who then are not making a profit but do have residential electric bills due each month sell their coin they acquired earlier in year at $25k, to sell for ~$50k+. thus making a profit from old coins but unable to acquire new coin at old prices.. then helps the new buyer have a new acquisition cost of $50k+ which then sets and helps support the new 'bottom'

Here I also don't understand your logic. Why should weak hands help to create a bottom exactly at the point where the profitability limit for big mining farms lis located? Both price points seem independent for me.

Quote from: franky1 on September 05, 2024, 03:27:14 AM

what you will find is that when the next ATH happens next year which could go into the $200k+ premium, alot of hobby miners across the world may rejoin pools and mine again acquiring coin due to profitability.

Yes that may happen but I don't see how that could impact in the price mechanics, also I think hobby miners aren't really an important factor in general. Them having 10% of the hashrate would already be a surprise to me.