Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:02:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 05, 2024, 06:54:04 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on September 05, 2024, 08:50:31 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on August 31, 2024, 05:17:53 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 31, 2024, 07:33:35 AM

Quote from: MainIbem on August 30, 2024, 11:42:57 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on August 30, 2024, 09:43:21 AM

If you ask me, it's more about use about 10% of monthly salary to DCA, then save the rest. Because if we are lucky, and a golden opportunity comes again - it might be a good time to be irresponsible and use up to 90% of your savings to buy the DIP.

Using 10% of monthly salary by salary earners is not a bad idea, I consider this one of the best approach when it comes to DCA, cause one would still have reserve funds as a leverage to take advantage of the market when their's a massive dip for instance about weeks ago when Bitcoin fell below $50k. This is the more reason why it's advised that people shouldn't loan money to go into Cryptocurrency, imagine if someone made entry with a loaned money at $60k plus and the market declined below $50k they'll end up being in a big mess cause I wonder how they'll pay off the debt, investing on Bitcoin especially when someone is using the DCA method is meant for those who got a stable income and not some jobless person trying to alleviate themselves with the little funds they got through Bitcoin.

This is merely my personal opinion, but that DIP was NOT the actual DIP. Follow and study the price and its relationship with the 200-Weekly Simple Moving Average. If you haven't made a lump sum purchase with your savings yet, then it's probably better to DCA 10% of your salary and continue saving the rest while waiting for a crash near the level of the 200-Weekly SMA.

You have not yet learned your lesson from your waiting to buy in October 2023 (around $27k) when you were waiting for lower $20ks that did not end up happening? Another thing is that historically, the 200-WMA is o.k. to use as a measurement when we finally get back into a bear market, yet we are still currently in a bull market, so you might be being a bit too greedy when you are holding back so much waiting to get close to the 200-WMA that may well not end up happening until much later... and yeah, I will concede that whether we are in a bear market or a bull market tends to be a lagging indicator, so sometimes, we can end up getting back into a bear market and perhaps the touching on the 200-WMA could be a sign that we are back in a bear market.

Ser, you're nit-picking. Why do you choose October 2023's price point when EVERYONE had a GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY to buy the actual DIP under the 200-Weekly SMA from June 2022 to March 2023. That's almost ONE YEAR of continued opportunity, THEN the price DIPPED under the line again during August 2023.

Sure we could use August 2023 or even a year ago,

Why with those random dates?

I said June 2022 to March 2023 - those days/weeks/months when Bitcoin was actually spending most of its time BELOW the 200-Weekly-SMA.

It seems that I was making a different point than you. I think that my initial question was whether you were regretting not buying in August/September/October 2023 during such time that you were stating that you were expecting more down (and BTC's spot price was below the 200-WMA for much of that time too... prior to the late October rise from $26k/$27k to its March 2024 ATH of $73,794.

I suppose that it bears repeating that I surely don't have any problem with the idea of potentially buying more when the BTC price is at near or below the 200-WMA, and those kinds of strategical buying could potentially play more for folks who had already been in BTC for a while, so they have presumptively accumulated decent amounts of BTC.

For the newbie investor, it may well not matter so much exactly where the BTC price is, at least for maybe a whole cycle or maybe even a cycle and a half or longer - depending on how much BTC s/he had been able to accumulate in light of his/her annual expenses and/or standard of living. Of course, when a newbie investor starts to build into a more regular investor and perhaps has build his/her BTC portfolio to such a size that it is more than a year's expenses, and maybe even 2-3 years of expenses, s/he is going to have more liberty (or perhaps justification) to change his/her BTC accumulation strategy to perhaps become more discerning in regards to the price and even perhaps consider whether to diversify out his/her investment portfolio into other assets (not necessarily referring to shitcoins, but maybe to equities, properties, businesses, commodities, bonds, cash/cash equivalents).

There is no exact correct path, even though there are probably some preferred practices, including that I think that newbies likely are going to be way better off to just be spending a lot of time just strictly accumulating BTC through DCA for 4-6 years or more rather than getting caught up in regards to trying to figure out BTC price moves and the extent to which dips are going to happen or going to dip further or not.

By the way, in August, September, October 2023, the BTC price spent much of that time $25k-ish to $27k-ish.. which would have had been between 0% and 10% below the 200-WMA, since in the middle of September 2023, the 200-WMA was right around $27.7k. Instead of advocating buying, you were advocating buying the dip, and that is part of the point that I was attempting to make. BTC prices were already low and already below the 200-WMA, and you were suggesting people wait for more including suggesting that there were decently good odds that lower $20ks would be revisited, so in that sense you were not buying nor advocating for buying but were advocating for waiting... which you yourself said that you were doing during that time...

and the reason that you were doing it was because you were poor.. that was the dumb and inadequate reason that you gave about wanting to get more bang for the buck.. blah blah blah.. which results in greed that was not justified and did not play out well for anyone who did not have many coins or were low coiners at the time, and it may well did not even work well for you, even though you have had much longer time accumulating bitcoin, but still you like to employ waiting strategies rather than ongoing buying strategies, and I question whether your ongoing desires to employ waiting strategies has even served you as well as an ongoing buying strategy could have had served you better.

In the end, of course, you are free to do whatever you like, to advocate whatever you like, including advocating waiting and buying on dips, and others here may well not agree with such strategies, especially for newbies who are still in the earliest of stages of building their BTC stash, which may well even last more than a whole cycle to really build their BTC stash to a meaningful amount that might justify their modifying their BTC accumulation approach to some other less regular kinds of accumulation, such as buying on dips or other waiting rather than ongoing buying strategies.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on Today at 08:02:20 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 05, 2024, 06:54:04 PM

yet what is significant about October 2023 is that there were quite a few people (including you) who were expecting and cheering for down and saying that you could not buy BTC because you were waiting for more down.. Yet, in October 2023, the BTC market turned and the price pretty much shot up from $26k/$27k-ish and went all the way up to $73k in March 2024.. so yeah, a lot of the folk, probably including yourself got left out on that stepladder .. and we likely are not going back down anywhere close to those kind of prices.

It was probably significant for you, but what was actually significant for buy the DIP investors were the months from June 2022 to March 2023. Those months were obviously THE Golden Opportunity to buy the DIP, and HODL for the current cycle.

I consider the period between June 2022 and October 2023 to have had been mostly below the 200-WMA, even though sure there was a period between about April and July 2023 in which the BTC price went above the 200-WMA, but even then the BTC price still stayed pretty close to the 200-WMA for that whole period of time.

As for me, I am in a bit of a different position as compared to most other people, since we likely should be considering that way more guys here are way more in their earlier stages of BTC accumulation, as compared to where I am at (since I did most of my BTC accumulation in 2014.. but still continued accumulating in 2015 and 2016).

And, guys can ONLY be so aggressive when they are newbies anyhow. They can invest 100% of their discretionary income, as long as they don't make any mistakes with it and otherwise have other good cashflow management practices in place that includes maintaining back up funds... yet they could get themselves into trouble if they start to employ leverage merely based on their recognizing BTC prices to be in historically low price territories.

You seem to want to suggest that there would have had been some kind of waiting to get into bitcoin that might have had taken place, so that between June 2022 and October 2023 (you say March 2023), they would then deploy all of the fiat that they had been holding back in order to invest in BTC during that time, but then you were still suggesting to be waiting presumably for lower $20ks between August and October 2023.. which sure, maybe you had already backed the trucks up and loaded up between June 2022 and March 2023, which might work o.k. for someone who already accumulated BTC, but it was not really any kind of a good strategy for anyone just starting out in BTC during that time. Sure, anyone getting into bitcoin during June 2022 and October 2023 would have had been better off to have had started out BIG during that time, even though surely a decent amount of that time had a lot of negative ideas in the air about bitcoin.

My own personal system in 2022 involved buying on the way down from the mid $60ks until about $35k or so, and then when the BTC price dropped below $35k in early May 2023, i realized that we were no longer in a bull market, so I spent some time rearranging some of my buy orders between $30k and $20k to allow them to go lower than they had previously been set, and so then by the time we got to June 2022-ish, most of those buy orders had been filled, and so I was largely running out of money to buy more, especially below $20k, so I had to regroup again and even to start to figure out new sources to inject more cash and to start to employ a kind of DCA strategy during those sub $20k times, and I did not have a lot of money to work with.. so there surely can be a bit of difficulty to run out of money as the BTC prices drop and continue to drop, and you are going to suggest that guys go all in during those kinds of times, when no one has any money, but you are going to suggest that the correct strategy would have had been to make sure to hold back money to be able to buy below $20k, and really the 200-WMA was round $22k at that time, so many folks who had money had been spending (buying) on the way down, so there weren't very many folks who still had money to keep buying on the way down, but for some reason, you are smarter than everyone else and you have money to continue to buy when others don't?