Quote from: pawel7777 on September 08, 2024, 10:06:16 PM

Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on September 08, 2024, 09:16:30 AM

There is no other method, actually. Unless you're a successful macro-investor with high win-rate, there is no other more empirically successful method for buying Bitcoin. Acknowledge that you can't time the market, and try to buy on the most average price for the last few months, which can only be approximated by DCA-ing.

Of course there are other ways.
"Buying the dip" and selling at the peak is one of the most popular strategy and one that tends to be more profitable that DCA.

As a generally applicable technique trading would not have had been more profitable than bitcoin as compared with a DCA strategy, and so the longer that you go out, the more likely that DCA would have had beaten trading. You are misleading to suggest trading as being more profitable as a general principle, even though there are likely examples that can be found where traders had in fact beaten a DCA technique, especially if you go back historically and look at BTC's price performance retroactively, yet if you try to apply a trading technique as a general principle, more likely you are not going to beat DCA because it is quite likely that you would have sold too much too soon or engaged in other techniques that end up causing you to not retain as many coins as would have had happened in a DCA technique.

Remember strict DCA has nothing to do with selling and/or trading.

We can take your own forum registration date as an example, which likely a strict DCA strategy would have had gotten you right around 44x profits. Have you beaten that with trading?

I wrote about this recently in another one of my posts.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 07, 2024, 04:19:29 AM

Quote from: sirazimuth on September 07, 2024, 02:02:20 AM

[edited out]

......
I might not be as humble as I need to be either. I am not sure, since I do look up my own numbers from time to time based on the time that I got into bitcoin, which was late November 2013, so surely we could adjust our BTC accumulation numbers and the amount that we had invested into BTC to show whether or not we have beaten a strict BTC accumulation strategy, yet I am proclaiming that whatever I did ended up beating a strict DCA approach. We can look at the DCA charts and see that if a person had invested $100 per week into BTC since December 1, 20013 until present, he would have had invested just over $56k, and he would have had accumulated 46.31 BTC (valued currently at right about $2.5 million), and so that would be right around 44.6x in profits, even though I am claiming to currently be at right around 54x profits.

I think that part of the reason that my own BTC holdings beat a strict DCA approach is because I largely front-loaded my investment into BTC in the earliest days of my BTC investment (and not everyone is able to do that), and I did not selling BTC as a means to attempt to accumulate more BTC. In other words, I did not sell any BTC until I concluded that I had reached a status of overaccumulation (which largely I reached that status in 2015), and so I didn't ever really get out of my status of having had overaccumulated BTC, which remains my current status today.

It is true that if we calculate someone who early accumulated BTC from December 2013 until December 2016, and who had invested the same $56k, such a person would have had accumulated right around 144 BTC (which would have had been right around $7.77 million), which would be nearly 139x profits. So surely there are ways that I could have had reported even better profits than the 54x amounts that I am currently reporting for myself, so I am not even suggesting that my performance is the best or that I could have done better, even though surely I could have done worse, too, and members here might want to report that the greatly outperformed DCA, and there is nothing wrong with variance existing within the performances of the portfolios of members, and surely sometimes we do try to learn from our mistakes or even to suggest that our method did better than another method...so I am not even concerned if a member who is a bit of a bragger ended up outperforming my own BTC holdings.

Yet, maybe I become a bit more resentful about guys proclaiming that selling BTC in order to accumulate more of it is any kind of a sound BTC accumulation strategy, since we are not ONLY talking to bitcoin veterans in this thread, but we are also talking to newbies who are still in relatively early stages of building their BTC holdings, so strategies that I tend to suggest are meant for everyone yet also somewhat sensitive to the plight of the bitcoin newbie or the bitcoin BTC accumulator/investor who is in his first cycle of BTC accumulation, and so I still consider that the same rules apply whether we are in our first cycle or it might even take longer than a whole cycle for any bitcoin investor to get to a status of either having had accumulated enough or to have had overaccumulated, which I believe is what is needed before even considering selling any BTC (beyond sell and replace), yet members like OgNasty, and even other members promoting BTC trading, are suggesting that BTC trading is a reasonable method to accumulate more BTC, and surely I don't agree with that kind of an assessment or approach to bitcoin accumulation.

From my perspective, it becomes even worse when guys become arrogant about using BTC trading as a method to supposedly accumulate more BTC, which from my point of view is more likely to result in members losing bitcoin (and/or losing value) rather than gaining bitcoin (gaining value), even if some members proclaim that they have become BTC trading experts. Trading takes more skills rather than either predicting the BTC price or following someone who supposedly knows everything.

Quote from: pawel7777 on September 08, 2024, 10:06:16 PM

You don't have to time the market perfectly, you're not doing day-trading here, all is required is to correctly identify where in the long-term trend we are. i.e. if we are down 70-80% from the ATH, then it's fair to say we're around the bottom and it would make sense to but more then instead of when the price brakes the new ATH and all the metrics show the market is overheated.

O.k. Sure if you are trading, you might not need to identify the exact top nor the exact bottom. You can just get someone in the ballpark of identifying a large enough price rise to know to sell, and then you also have to figure out when to buy back without screwing it up too much, especially since you are likely going to be nervous to have had sold your bitcoin while you are still in your accumulation phases.

I know that you can look back on a historical chart and you can see when you should have had sold and when you should have had bought, but how the hell is a normie going to figure that out without stressing himself out. .and to me it seeems way better for a normie just to be buying ongongly, regularly, persistently and consistently for at least for a whole cycle, maybe even two cycles, before even trying to fuck around with trading, and even if he tries to trade, it is probably not good to be doing such a thing with large portions of his BTC holdings.. but hey whatever, you can spout out all that you like about trading being better than DCA, accumulating and/or holding, but I really doubt that you have any kind of a great system that would be practical for someone who really has a goal to accumulate as many bitcoin as he can without overly putting his accumulation at risk, and it seems one of the greatest ways to put your BTC holdings at risk is to sell too muc too soon, especially when we are dealing with what seems to be amoungst the best, if not the best, long term investment currently available to normies... so why be fucking around trying to trade such an asset that is already good on its own, merely because you are wanting to get greedy and/or to rush your getting rich process.

By trading, have you personally (pawel7777) been able to beat a DCA strategy in your nearly 11 years in bitcoin (going from your forum registration date)?

Quote from: pawel7777 link=topic=5469800.msg64511081#msg6y4511081 date=1725833176

Or you could add some DCA elements to it, e.g. set regular purchases in the "consolidation period" only etc.

How are you going to know if a consolidation period is happening? especially as a newbie?

I bet it is much better to focus on DCAing and accumulating bitcoin for a while before fucking around with the various attempts to time the market that you are suggesting.

I certainly have no problem with trying to time dips or to supplement DCA strategies with lump sum and/or buying dips, yet I find it quite problematic, or even worse to believe that selling BTC, especially for newbies would be a good and/or solid practice for anyone considering themselves to be either in their early BTC accumulation stages or to be still in need to sufficiently/adequately prepare for up. Surely there can be situations where guys have concluded that they are already sufficiently/adequately prepared for up, so then they might be in a bit of a luxury position to wait for a further dip before buying more BTC, yet surely some of those guys are gong to end up waiting for dips that don't end up happening.. so waiting can sometimes screw up and/or interfere with an otherwise good and solid and even aggressive ongoing accumulation strategy that might mostly focus on DCAing.