This is actually once again translating into time in the market > timing the market. I mean sure somebody will always get lucky and then argue that waiting was the superior choice, but then false conclusions could be drawn because that person might think it was smart to wait. Instead it was lucky that it turned out to be successful. As your example describes, those hoping to go down from 26k to maybe 15k only to then see BTC go to 73k probably learned their lesson.
Another question is if someone has a weekly budget (DCA), but instead decides to wait for some mysterious reason that BTC could go down further, will that person be disciplined and put the budget aside to accumulate a potential lump sum for a later entry point? Will the weekly budget during the waiting period be consumed for other, irrelevant stuff?
That's why time in the market could outcompete timing the market even at seemingly unfavorable prices. If someone says they invest $100 per week only if BTC goes below 40k and they don't invest for 10 weeks because it took until then for BTC to go below 40k, then the question is whether the money is still there that was supposed to be invested into BTC via a DCA method. If instead that person bought $100 BTC all the time and it went sideways, but now goes to 65k, it is still a gain of a little less than 20%.
I am a strong believer of the "time in the market" approach. And this perfectly goes hand in hand with DCA. The only question someone has to answer for themselves is whether they believe in the technology and its long term potential or not. All the number crunching as to how much the return would be if instead of 55k someone enters at 40k is a waste of time. Again, the August 2023 - March 2024 example is only one of many.
So far, time in the market + DCA held true. Of course you could always zoom in on a time window and see that it did not work out, but that's kind of manipulative to your own detriment. Truth is that BTC with its up and downs performed extraordinarily well. And after all, even if BTC does not go to the moon within a year or two and someone is accumulating all the time, there is is still valuable BTC in the wallet.
Waiting is a backup option assuming it will happen in the next few days. For example, if you set a strategy with several divisions of your cash flow such as reserve funds or regular funds.
Reserve funds can be used to wait for the opportunity to buy at a falling price.
While regular funds are used every week with routine accumulation that is done.
Yes, the conclusion is buying regularly with DCA + with waiting purchases with reserve funds, this strategy should have been planned by someone before they started investing. Buying dips or waiting is one of the best ways to increase btc ownership by going hand in hand with DCA every week.
I think the criteria for collecting a weekly budget in order to be able to wait for the price to drop far is an unwise decision. Yes, that's just my opinion because instead of waiting longer, of course they can be assumed as someone who continues to postpone purchases.