⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
...
Yep. time in the market tends to be much better than timing the market, and so whenever we are making our DCA buys while we are accumulating BTC, we buy BTC with the belief that it is good to get in and to get more BTC. Personally, I think that there can be some times in which it takes a while for the BTC price to work itself out, and so there could be extended periods of time in which our portfolio holdings are in the negative, yet I have my doubts that there are many folks who are in the negative after a few years of ongoing DCA. Yeah, sure the more problematic portfolios would have been the ones who made decently large BTC purchases towards the top of the BTC price range, and then his subsequent DCAs at lower prices were not enough to overcome the earlier lump sum buys at higher prices, so there surely can be some BTC portfolios that might take a while to get back into profits, even after several years of ongoing BTC buying.
Most of us also recognize and appreciate that there are no guarantees in BTC that it will end up being profitable, so we likely consider bitcoin as an asymmetric bet to the upside in which the most that we can lose is 100%, so in that regard, we should be choosing our BTC investment size in accordance with our weighing of these various considerations as well as considering our other 8-9 personal factors.
There has been a ton of true statements that you made in that post. I am not going to address them one by one as I am a little bit short on time, but one thing that people can't get into their heads is that it is still early days for BTC. More reasons will come why a decentralized currency (or reserve tool or whatever someone wants to use it for) will find its way into society in wide spread fashion. The only thing that gets me concerned at times is the pace of development. Frankly, I am not even up to date how that is going and what the pace is at which advancements happen.
I have said a while ago that technologies like the lightning network should in a best case scenario work more like a plug and play, like an app, someone presses connect and there you go. Similar to a VPN or even the TOR browser where someone can connect their wallet and then benefit from LN as the rest will be done automatically in the backend.
But apart from these issues, the number of people owning BTC is still small. It's actually tiny. People are too obsessed with the price instead of the network potential. Of course when someone sees that it was once pennies and now it's in the tens of thousands, it looks like they are late to the party. But price is probably one of the worst metrics to base their decision on.
Quote
so we likely consider bitcoin as an asymmetric bet to the upside in which the most that we can lose is 100%
That sounds reasonable to me, but I still think that BTC can barely be stopped from expanding unless there is some fatal flaw or threat that hits the network out of nowhere. I find the fact that governments are now paying close attention to BTC very interesting. Because now they all know that being late to the party could have geo strategical consequences in the long term. Some of them probably build at least a little reserve and hence remove more circulating supply.
The whole "waiting for the dip thing" is flawed. The only approach I would somewhat accept is if someone has a set in stone threshold and if that is hit, a lump sum is going to be used to build a substantial stash (relatively, depending on the individual). I think those who talk about waiting for the dip are also those who panic when their chosen threshold is reached, they buy and then BTC crashes further and they sell again because they panic. We have said this dozens of times, nobody knows where exactly a correction or crash makes the U-turn. If Wind_FURY believes that this is the way to go for him, then fine, but propagating that it is a golden formula is utter nonsense. Maybe he should start a dedicated thread and post his decisions in real time, so we can see whether he is making the right calls all the time or not. My modest guess is that he is 50% right and 50% wrong, so why not just flip a coin once a week, buy when tail shows up and don't buy when heads show up
