Quote from: laijsica on Today at 08:34:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 15, 2024, 04:49:30 PM

You seem to be talking about trading rather than sustainable withdrawal.. So I was suggesting that once a large enough stash is established then 10% per year could be withdrawn in perpetuity as long as the BTC spot price is staying at least 25% above the 200-WMA and the 200-WMA is being used as the valuation of the BTC stash based on bottom prices rather than based on top prices. Perhaps my discussion of this is too complicated for my to be stating it and members seem to be misinterpreting what I am saying.

I never like to think positively about short term bitcoin trading because it's pretty clear to me that the real profits are hidden in the long term accumulation of bitcoins. I may have spent some time to be able to understand what you mean.It is certainly logical that Bitcoin can be withdrawn if the spot price is above 25% if an investor has a decent sized holding. As per your advice I think it must be a sustained withdrawal trend as well as regular bitcoin accumulation so a logical suggestion to fill that void is to continue buying the DCA method uninterrupted.

If you are a long term bitcoin investor, then think about that first, and think about how much BTC you need to accumulate in terms of your various goals in life and considering your 9 individual factors. For many folks it takes 30-40 years to really build up an investment, and sure it could be possible that if you are already investing, then you are going to build up your bitcoin holdings faster, and so maybe you might want to try to get several years worth of your expenses into BTC before you might start to feel comfortable about the size of your bitcoin holdings.

If you have an income of between $1.8k and $3.2k per month with an average of $2,500, and your expenses are between $1,500 and $2,200 with an average of $1,800, then on average you have $700 left over that you can invest into bitcoin, so even if you were investing the whole $700 into bitcoin, it is going to take you nearly 3 years to invest an amount that would cover 1 year of your expenses, and surely most people down even have that high of a percentage of disposable income, and I would not even recommend investing all of your disposable income, since you might need some of your disposable income to cover your miscalculation in your expenses, or to cover or build up your various reserve funds, and so there are reasons to not invest all of your discretionary income into bitcoin, even though surely it is within the range of anyone. When I mentioned the ability to withdraw up to 10% of your bitcoin holdings and to still have it profitable as long as it is 25% above the 200-WMA, I am not talking about you being 25% in profits, and I presume that you are way more in profits, yet whatever you can do what you like if you think that being 25% in profits is any kind of meaningful thing.. when it seems like peanuts. There are guys who are 20x or 30x or more in profits, and they are not really thinking about their level of their profits when they get to a stage of considering withdrawing their BTC.. and another thing is that maybe we are getting way too far off of the topic of this thread, since this thread is more about accumulating BTC rather than talking about maintenance and/or withdraw...and you seem way the fuck too early in your BTC accumulation journey to be considering withdraw or trading or whatever you seem to be considering to be selling with 25% profits, when that is just retardedly low levels of profits.

When I refer to the 200 WMA, that is referring to BTC bottom prices and potential ways to assess the value of your BTC holdings, even though surely people are selling BTC at spot price, yet they can valuate their BTC holdings by considering bottom prices, which is what the 200-WMA represents, and right now BTC spot prices is about 50% higher than the 200-WMA The reason that I suggest that you can employ your sustainable withdrawal when the BTC price is at least 25% above the 200-WMA, then at least you are not at or near bottom BTC prices, so I would think it would be better to modify any of your selling to be less if the BTC price is less than 25% above the 200-WMA... and you should not even be thinking about selling any BTC anyhow unless you have spent at least a whole cycle accumulating or if you had front loaded your BTC investment, and again which gets us back to establishing a sizeable bitcoin holdings first prior to employing something like sustainable withdrawal... in traditional investments, usually the withdrawal rate is 4% annualized, which means that you need to have 20 to 30 years of your income/expenses in your investment portfolio to start to withdraw in a sustainable way and presuming that your investment portfolio is invested in ways that you are able to earn more than 4% on average and to be able to withdraw from it... so with bitcoin, I am presuming that once you reach your accumulation targets of around 10 years or more, then you should be able to withdraw 10% per year in a sustainable way to produce the same income as you would be able to in a traditional investment, but you still likely would have to monitor your withdrawal rates if you are potentially dipping into your principle which also becomes dangerous if you are withdrawing at full rates and the BTC price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA.

Quote from: laijsica on Today at 08:34:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 15, 2024, 04:49:30 PM

Quote from: laijsica on September 15, 2024, 09:59:54 AM

But I think if he has the stamina to do it for a longer period of time from regular DCA deposits, he should continue to deposit for a cycle or two or more without withdrawal.

I surely am suggesting to attempt to reach a state of over-accumulation before beginning a time-based sustainable withdraw approach.

Of course! An investor should build a rational holding in his long term Bitcoin journey where he will simultaneously accumulate Bitcoins in the DCA strategy and take advantage of a maximum 25% withdrawal from excess savings if the spot price is higher than the average purchase price.

You seem to be quite mixed up in your expression of your ideas here. DCA strategy is a way to build up your BTC holdings that is within reach of a lot of people who might not be able to lump sum invest, and it also allows ongoing investment into bitcoin rather than waiting for BTC price dips. We surely have to get through our BTC accumulation stages prior to talking about withdrawal, and so I think that it becomes overly confusing to be talking about withdrawal strategies prior to making sure that we have reach sufficient and/or overaccumulation first, and many times, folks might go through a bit of transition phase when they are no longer really accumulating more BTC prior to getting into any kind of a withdrawal stage, since it does not make a lot of sense to spend years building up a bitcoin holdings and then to feel some kind of need to go straight into selling it.. and including that if you had been investing DCA, then your earlier DCA purchases would potentially be reaching their 4-10 year or longer timeline sooner than any of your last BTC purchases, so if you are long term investing into bitcoin rather than trading, then you should not be anxious to sell any BTC that you might have had just bought and so in that regard, your last DCA purchases might still have to wait 4-10 years or longer to start to consider whether or not to start to withdraw them.. which is also assuming that your withdraw starts once you reach a kind of overaccumulation goal, which of course, you create your own goals, even if you end up doing dumb things, no one is going to save you if you devolve into trading ideas and practices rather than an investment approach to your BTC.