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Topic
Board Trading Discussion
Re: Dollar cost averaging Bitcoin - can we do better?
by
tbct_mt2
on 27/09/2024, 01:33:08 UTC
I agree here. So basically your model is valid for the "growth phase" in adoption, and when we approach saturation we have simply to accept it breaks. I also agree that it is difficult to predict how high the percentage of global savings could be in the "full adoption" scenario.
Majority of Americans aren’t confident in the safety and reliability of cryptocurrency.
The research on Americans but globally Bitcoin also has big open space for further adoption.

I agree with you, that everything will come to a point of "saturation" and Bitcoin adoption growth will hit the "saturation point" in future but based on the research result, I believe that we are still far from that point and in near future like next 2 or 3 market cycles, Bitcoin will continue its good growth when adoption continues to soar sharply.

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And of course Bitcoin can fail.
Yes, Bitcoin can fail like others but risk of failure in 2024 is much smaller than in earlier years of Bitcoin history.

The bullish case for Bitcoin (Part 2).

Lindy effect works and Bitcoin is not excluded from Lindy effect.
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Furthermore, the Lindy effect suggests that the longer Bitcoin remains in existence the greater society’s confidence that it will continue to exist long into the future. In other words, the societal trust of a new monetary good is asymptotic in nature, as is illustrated in the graph below:
If Bitcoin exists for 20 years, there will be near-universal confidence that it will be available forever, much as people believe the Internet is a permanent feature of the modern world.