Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2024/2025
by
KTChampions
on 27/09/2024, 22:38:48 UTC
Unfortunately, I am not given the ability to see the future  Cheesy
But I'm only interested in one question: are the bookmakers offering good odds? At the moment, the odds for this game are as follows:

5.30 - 4.30 - 1.60

+60% for an away game against a good team? Definitely not.
I think it should be 1.7-1.8 minimum. I don't really want to bet on Newcastle either, but if I'm right, they are seriously undervalued.


The odds of City must be more than 1.9 or 2.0. And i will consider it fair. This is because they get fewer advantages compared to Newcastle. They lost their best CAM and DM. They also play away at St. James' Park. Their schedule is busier than their opponent's. Their players are probably exhausted.

And as you said that, 1.6 is too small for City. But there may be a reason why bookies gave City smaller odds than our expectation. It's probably due to the awful performance of their opponent (conceded 6 and scored 7 goals).

All in all, 1.6 is still worthy enough to bet, considering they have a greater chance of winning with a narrow score.

Newcastle's goal difference is really bad, but they have great consistency in attack: they have scored at least one goal in every game. If you look at City, they have 5 goals conceded, which is worse than Liverpool (1) and Arsenal (3), Brighton and Forest (4). With such input data, I begin to believe that the game will definitely end with BTTS Yes. And yet I consider the bet on City to be unfounded.