Quote from: d5000 on September 27, 2024, 11:42:57 PM

From my (limited) knowledge about Elliott waves, I guess a significant break out of the 49-73 area to the upside would invalidate the assumption about a "corrective" wave. AFAIK a corrective wave cannot not get significantly higher or lower than the last high or low (at the trend change).

However, we're still not there. 66.5k, the last high, is even still perfectly inside of the slightly bearish corridor which started in March. Its slope is so flat that we would only break out near 70k. And the final invalidation of the current short-term bear market would only occur if we surpassed the 73.5k significantly.

My own (non-TA) assumption is that the probability of >73.5 k is now slightly higher than a dump <49k. There are a lot of external factors just aligned which point to a more positive development, mainly the interest rate decreases by the Fed and the ECB, but also some emotional-psychologic factors: we can cite the assumption that October and November are bullish months for Bitcoin's price, for example, but also the relief that for example the MtGox dump was far lighter than some expected, or didn't exist at all) in this case would "overrule" any TA-based prediction.

Another factor pointing to the assumption that 49k was a local bottom is that altcoins have stabilized and are beginning to outperform Bitcoin in some cases. Altcoins are an indicator for retail investments.

Corrective waves which develop new highs or new lows beyond a five wave impulse, are known as Irregular B-waves.
Markets can remain in an Irregular B-wave for quite some time, with considerable measure.

For example, here is the DJIA30 index, which has been in an Irregular B-wave since 17-APR-2024 to present, at all-time highs...