The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only for a short term.