Quote from: yhiaali3 on September 29, 2024, 07:15:38 PM

For my part, I cannot use logic in the cryptocurrency market because the matter is much more complicated than that. It is not accurate to think about the crypto market as if things are going according to a specific logic. This is not true because there are many variables and incidents that can happen suddenly and change the course of the entire market.

Yes, the factors that you mentioned, such as halving, the US elections, and QE BY FED, all play a major role in determining the direction of the market, but you cannot predict what will happen as if it is an infallible scenario. This is wrong. You build your analyses according to the data you have in hand and then wait for the results, and often the results come out contrary to expectations.

Of course we need other factors that can be seen or as additional factors, decisions on interest rate cuts, elections, Having to have a review of the state of global geo-politics, the global economy and others, so that you can see the possibility of the market going in which direction, sudden events often occur that give negative sentiment towards bitcoin that's right, these agendas can be used as catalysts but need to see the whole situation.

Quote from: davis196 on Today at 10:59:00 AM

Quote from: Helex on September 19, 2024, 12:53:55 PM

YOU ARE IN CRYPTO MARKET.
SO DON'T APPLY LOGIC.

JUST REMEMBER
BULL MARKET = HALVING + 18 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = US ELECTION + 12 MONTHS
BULL MARKET = QE BY FED, INCREASE IN M2 SUPPLY

The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only in the short term.

Some things can rely on hunches to judge, but it should also be understood that we can analyze, these factors are very logical if we see positive sentiment towards the market and the flow of money that will be poured in by investors because they have confidence when the economy is going very well, then politics will be very influential especially if the narrative that is built on political contestation brings bitcoin as a form of attitude that will be brought by one of the candidates as is now happening in the US, finally regarding your third point, the length or shortness of the influence but can verify that the logic of the market is correct.