Quote from: Dailyscript on Today at 11:50:34 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:08:28 AM

Another thing with bitcoin is that there are so many times, that the BTC price unexpectedly moves to the upside without any major corrections, and some smart trader might sell in what he believes to be small batches on the way up, yet the BTC price keeps going up and still does not correct, and pretty soon he is left with all fiat and no bitcoin, and so then he doubles down by not buying back the bitcoin that he sold because he is still waiting for the BTC price to go down and he becomes a bitter no coiner who sold all of his coins as some way lower price than the current price.. and sure, he would have had been way better off to just continue to buy BTC until he has enough BTC, which could take 4-10 years or longer to build a decently sized BTC stash, but he stays focused on buying and he is continuously building rather than spending time waiting for dips that may or may not end up coming.

That is the problem, most traders dont know when to quit and realize that if they had been buying Bitcoin all the years they have been trading, they would have been in better profits than what they think they have now. To be honest, most traders can't boast of any better profit they have seen since they started trading. Yet, they keep putting in money from another source like business or other investments into trading hoping to cash out huge someday. People go into trading thinking they are going to turn 2k into 4k and then 8k in a few weeks or months. The market does not care what they want to earn it will go against them or in favor of them.

Just knowing when to take a break is a good thing. As an individual, the worst we can do is to push against ourselves and if we feel that it is time to try investing in the long term instead of trading then such traders should do it.

If we have a good system, then we should not have to take a break, or maybe we have parameters for our ongoing buying, yet it seems to me when you are suggesting that traders sometimes have to take a break, it likely has to do with their winning and/or losing streaks that do not seem to be sustainable.. even though a losing streak that depletes the capital that a person brought into trading (gambling) may well end up forcing them to quit until they generate more capital, and surely if the trader (gambler) goes on a winning streak, then it could be that some of them might decide to take a break and to enjoy some of their profits and/or to regroup in regards to figuring out how to manage their winnings.... yet still maybe a rare trader/gambler who might create and maintain a separate investment fund that he is able to keep separate without drawing into for the purposes of trading/gambling.

There are some traders who figure out profitable systems.... so there could be some guys who are able to learn how to trade in profitable ways. We know that bitcoin has historically been a great investment, and there is no real evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is weakening, so surely even for a trader, it would seem that there would be some value in keeping a certain amount of non-working capital in bitcoin for the long term and just to let it grow, so it can be quite difficult for a trader to allow his investment to sit over a long period of time, and they frequently get lured into moving their capital around or perhaps feeling that they need to put more of their capital in certain areas that they consider to be short-to-medium term winners.

Some folks cannot resist the temptation to want to trade, yet if they are not sure if they have good systems, then it likely would be prudent to limit themselves to no more than 10% of their bitcoin holdings while they are learning, and even 10% might be a bit much, but if they cannot resist the temptation, at least they have figured out a way to put some kind of a limit on how much they put into their trading account. I don't really believe in the idea of using dummy accounts to learn, but instead to figure how to limit amounts, yet surely there could be ways to use some of those dummy/demo kinds of accounts, even though using real money will likely contribute towards making the incentives more real... which some folks figure out systems in which they are hedged in either direction so that they likely make money either way that the market goes, and it can be complicated to set up such systems.

Quote from: Dailyscript on Today at 11:50:34 AM

Quote from: Wonder Work on September 29, 2024, 05:59:34 PM

Yes I noticed that. When the trading factory came, many of them became self-sufficient in the beginning, but it was seen that many could not be self-sufficient. Many have lost so much that they could not recover that loss. Again it can be seen that it is doing fairly well depending on the trading. In fact, there is a need to analyze the trading thing, Cheriya Aslam.

The trading stuff sounds great but there's a lot of grunt inside. Learning about chatting also requires a lot of analysis and knowing a lot about market prediction. Learning how to calculate well is all in all, trading is a very difficult thing. Although difficult but if you learn it well then it will not be a problem and even if it is a problem it will not do you much harm in the long run. If one comes to the chatting sector, first he must know well, read, understand and then think about it.

Trading has never sound great to me and many other investors in this board. Jay and a few others can attest that. Just like i have said before, the decision on what we do to our Bitcoin depends on our individuals goals, risk tolerance and level of finance. I cant suggest for an individual to choose trading over investing long term or vice versa because at the end of the day we would take responsibility for any actions we take now.

But in my own opinions ill choose investing in Bitcoin for long term any day, ay time. Why would i prefer to risk my asset on a daily basis under the volatile market conditions with buy and sell decisions. Even if it is in our choice to choose we should make sure we win at the end. What is the point of investing in Bitcoin if we dont get to be successful as it is the end goals. Trading can be more emotional and only for short profits, While investing in long term with a strategy can be relatively straightforward, making them easy to comprehend and achieving our goals. With trading we may likely stay longer in completing our goals.

Ultimately, the key is to understand your own goals and risk tolerance before making a decision.

Guys have to figure out for themselves, including if they might place some kind of a limit on the amount that they trade versus how much they invest, and even investing has its limitations in terms of how much discretionary income that a guy has, and a guy does not have to completely go down one path versus the other, even though many of us likely realize that trading can have a way of incentivizing sucking more and more value into it, so guys have to figure out how many kinds of assets they are going to be into at any given time, so traders could be focused on single assets such as bitcoin, yet it becomes complicated to hedge when only focusing on bitcoin and cash - even if various financial instruments are used, so the traders may also get sucked into shitcoins too.... which also will bring us back to the question of figuring out how to save value, so even there are some guys who will roll their "profits," to the extent that they have any back into bitcoin, while at the same time, traders will likely end up being too smart for their own good in regards to wanting to tap back into their bitcoin, even if they might have had it set aside as a place to put profits, but they may well not achieve enough discipline to just leave their bitcoin account grow and to continue to add to it like an investment rather than as a trade.

It even becomes difficult to measure if they would have had been better off to just stay in bitcoin the whole time rather than trading, when the traders are so frequently moving around value, and if we might show the trader some kind of DCA timeline, they surely might not have had been able to beat such a DCA timeline especially if it is a long one, such as two whole cycles.

So for example an investor who put $100 per week into bitcoin for the past 8 years would have had invested right around $42k and would have accumulated right around 7.22 BTC (currently valued at right around $450k spot price or $286k 200-WMA valuation), so surely a 7x to 11x level of profits depending on the valuation, and if there had been some front-loading of the investment amount, then there could have had been higher levels of profits, so we may well have to look at the budgetary situation of the person in order to make some of these kinds of comparisons of how a trader might want to attempt to compare how he is doing or how he did do, as compared with an investor who had ended up pretty well off by strictly engaging in buying rather than fucking around with selling that may or may not end up helping out his overall portfolio performance.

Quote from: Justbillywitt on Today at 02:07:23 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 30, 2024, 06:58:09 PM

Quote from: Justbillywitt on September 30, 2024, 06:11:29 PM

Quote from: sotelorene on September 30, 2024, 12:40:48 PM

Dude you are sounding like trading is a crime which is very wrong and again the way you are emphasizing on it can make someone who's into trading look stupid.

It hasn't been said that trading is a crime, I think you are just the person making that up. I think that the message he was trying to pass across to you is that a valuable asset like bitcoin shouldn't be subjected to gambling in the name of trading. It should be something that if you manage to accumulate it, you should hold it for a long time.

Quote

after all I have seen someone who's trading and at same time doing investment and trust me everything is going smoothly for him and I keep asking myself how is that possible and then realized that everything is about mindset and having the ability to make it work. not that he doesn't make loss off cause he do make loss.

Someone who is an addicted trader can hardly keep his or her bitcoin for long term. Because the moment he sees a little profit from the one he said he is holding for long, that trading mindset of quick profit will set in and make him sell it off, with the hope of replacing it later. As a trader you will find it difficult hold bitcoin for long the way a long term investor will hold it. There is no in-between it's either you are a trader or an investor. So let's stop deceiving ourselves. When we say long term we ain't just talking about one or two years here, we are looking at somewhere between 10 -20 years and above. Someone who already has the trading blood in him will struggle to hold bitcoin that long. No matter how you try to refine it, a trader is a trader.

Exactly... long term and investing is likely 10-20 years or more, yet frequently we refer to 4-10 years and above in order to include the possibility and consideration that there might be some people who might have shorter time-frames due to their age or their health or perhaps some other kind of life event that might cause them to have to sell in a shorter timeline.. So young people who are saving up bitcoin in order to take short-to-medium profits, are not thinking long term, and sure there are likely some intermediary ways to consider your bitcoin holdings, such as wanting to buy a house in 6 years or some kind of consumption good like that - even though many of us have probably realized that it is not good to sell all of your bitcoin, even if you might end up cashing out large portions of it based on some personal living goals..

Now I understand more better why 4 years is considered as long term for holding bitcoin investment. I had never considered age and health as a factor that could influence how long some investors could hold their bitcoin. And you are absolutely right, because an old investor who is already 80-90 years old wouldn't want to hold his investment for as long as 20 years, because at that age such investor could die at any time due to his age. So in essence people that fall into this category tends to hold bitcoin on a shorter duration.

To me, it would not make any sense for a 80 to 90 year old to be buying BTC, especially if he were to ONLY be thinking of his own timeline, yet of course, there could be ways that an 80-90 year olds might be planning on passing on their estate, so they have possibilties of just hedging other aspects of their investment portfolio with expectations that the BTC would still be held for greater than 4 years.
If they are considering less than 4 year timelines in which they need the money then they would be trading/gambling rather than investing, and surely people can choose to trade/gamble with portions of their investment portfolio.

Quote from: Justbillywitt on Today at 02:07:23 PM

So you people who are fit and still have a reasonable number of years ahead of them should be the ones holding bitcoin from 10 years and above to actually see more profit from their investment.

I think that so many times were are attempting to address a newbie investor who is largely not really used to investing very much of his discretionary income, so traditionally newbie investors are going to end up investing 30-40 years or longer in regards to traditional investments, and sure there are likely some guys who are further along their investment journey when they come to bitcoin, yet at the same time, I doubt that it is very useful to presume that newbies to bitcoin have a lot of investment experience, since a whole hell of a lot of a large segment of the world's population do not have a lot of investments, so it seems to be a fairly safe assumption that a decent number of folks coming into bitcoin do not have a lot of investments (even if some of them do and they can adapt their strategies in accordance to their already existing investment portfolio and perhaps adapt some of their investment practices based on adding bitcoin into their investment portfolio mix).

Part of the hope with bitcoin is that the guy that would usually have a 30-40 years or longer investment timeline might be able to reduce their investment timeline by half by getting into bitcoin. Yeah, sure it is not guaranteed, and sure they might fuck it up, yet we still might need to be considering that relatively brand new investors might still end up with a 15-20 year investment timeline and if they are coming to bitcoin with more capital and already existing investments, then perhaps they might have had been able to reduce some of that expected remaining timeline to be shorter than the newbie who might retain some optimism in regards to hoping to have a 15 to 20 year investment timeline in bitcoin rather than a 30-40 year timeline with traditional assets.

And, if you notice, we still are not necessarily considering that a person is going to be getting rich within one or two cycles, even though there could be possibilities for guys to accelerate some of their bitcoin growth process if they have ways that they are able to front-load their BTC investment without overly gambling, without taking too many risks and/or without recking themselves along the way. One of the main things in bitcoin investing is to staying the game rather than engaging in such risky practices to force yourself into some kind of situation where you end up having to sell some or all of your BTC at a time that is not completely of your own choosing.. and truly the guy who is investing into bitcoin for the long term would not be necessarily considering selling all of his bitcoin but getting to a point that he might be living off his bitcoin or maybe supplementing his living standard with the bitcoin that he ends up accumulating throughout the years.