The things you have mentioned seem logical, so what do you mean by "don't apply logic"? Trusting my gut feeling? Relying on fortune tellers to predict the BTC price? Do you really think that the crypto markets are not logical? I know that human traders act mostly emotional, but every action on the markets can be explained logically.
1.The next Bitcoin halving will be in 2028 so there's no point waiting for it. Maybe you are talking about the 2024 halving and a potential 2025 bull run. I agree with this.
2.I don't remember the 2016 or 2020 US elections pumping the price. There's no guarantee that the US presidential election will be bullish.
3.FED quantitative easing and interest rate cuts can be bullish, but only in the short term.
Yeah, I guess he is talking about that one, and we are going to peak without a doubt, it is going to be 12 months, as in spring of 2025 should be all time high for a long time, at least for this bull run. There isn't really any questionable situation about this, we are moving at the right direction, both rates are cutting down and also we are seeing halving coming together so the price should be growing very high.
I believe that 200k isn't really impossible and should be a price point we can reach. Doesn't mean that we are going to see it, we could fail to reach there because 200k is such a high price but we "may" and the whole point of investing is speculation so if you believe that it "may" reach that then even if price doesn't get there, we are going to see it grow. So, if it fails to go to 200k but reaches 150k that means you still profit a lot when you buy right now, that is the most important part and we need to consider that as the reason why we should buy right now.