Quote from: d5000 on October 01, 2024, 11:51:53 PM

Thanks for the explanation. I have looked a bit into Elliott waves again and it seems you're correct, the "invalidation" of corrective waves doesn't occur in the same way than in the case of impulse waves.

The volume of the wave since the August low seems to be indeed lower than the last part of the previous bullish wave (late 2023 to March 2024), so that would fit for the rules for corrective waves, and also lower than the downtrend from March to August which could be described as a wave A like you proposed in your chart.

An alternative assumption could be however:

- Wave A: March to late April (73k - 56.5k)
- Wave B: late April to late May or early June (56.5k up to 72.5k)
- Wave C: early June to early August (56.5k down to 49k).

On a whole I think your subdivision follows Elliott wave rules more convincingly. So let's see if we indeed see a deeper dip still. From fundamentals' point of view I doubt it, despite of today's dump.

So it would be interesting what would, for you, be the event invalidating the "irregular B wave" theory, i.e. what josegines already asked. I think if we see prices close to 100k with as much or more volume as in March this should be the case, or not?

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

At this point, the wave still appear corrective, and so still expecting a decline to either 37K to 44K, current guesswork as follows...