Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on October 02, 2024, 12:47:14 AM

A set of five impulsive waves, in an uptrend, would be the first starting point to consider whether the downtrend is over; no need to wait for new all-time highs for such a consideration.

Thanks! I see that in your model you consider the "W" at the 53k dump before the 49k dump.

We can of course for now speculate that the development of the price after the 49k dump (your "a" bottom) may be the start of five impulsive waves:

- 1: wave up to 65k after the dump.
- 2: corrective wave down to 52.5k.
- 3: wave up to 67k, possibly extending higher if the 60k dump was only an intermediate correction. That's where we would be now.

So for the 5-wave pattern to form from this base, imo the following conditions would be needed:

- the wave 3 must go a bit higher without falling lower than 52.5k,
- the bottom of wave 4 must be above 65k (because an Elliott Wave 4 should not fall into wave 1 territory).
- and possibly: volume must pick up.

This would be however possibly a quite bearish outlook - it would be a wave 5 but it would not be sure if we can surpass the 100k in this cycle. It would be thus more mid-term bullish if your prediction was correct

Alternatively we could be still in wave 1, the important thing would be then to not see the sub-49k area again, but then it would take some time for this pattern to be confirmed.

Quote from: josegines on October 02, 2024, 12:19:37 AM

I'm not an expert on Elliot, but the rise since 6/Sep ($52.5k) looks like an impulse,
and what it's doing since 27/Sep ($66.5k) could be its correction.

Indeed, the 52.5 to 66k movement looks like a structure with five lower-degree waves. Much more than the movement from 49k to 65k which is comprised only from three lower-degree waves.

But how would the 49.5k to 65k movement fit into that picture? An "overshoot" inside the short-term bearish wave 2 (or 4)?