Quote from: Miles2006 on Today at 04:56:52 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 04, 2024, 04:30:36 AM

There is no such thing as short term investing. You are using the term short term investor to describe trading. ... So when it comes to bitcoin anything less than 4 years is not investing.. it is trading. .you are wanting to play some kind of a price wave. Yeah you might fool yourself into believing that you are investing because you have 1 or 2 or even 3 years, but you are just playing the trade.. Most likely to really consider bitcoin as an investment you need to think in terms of 10 years or more... otherwise, it seems that you are mixing up trading and investing, since it sounds like you are just trying to get in and then out of it with some short term fiat profits and you are not really considering holding it long term.

Even if some folks try to deceive others and create different type of thought because they accumulated with huge amount it’s still not yet time to sell, what makes bitcoin investment grow is the consistency and time we put to make sure we make better profit but, aside profit a long term mindset is absolutely the best. Traders can’t hold their bitcoin for long without withdrawing profit and the surprising part is they don’t care if the investment will fall probably anyone making such move Should be ready to face lose, the idea 4years is just an example and if getting to 4 years anyone can still accumulate if they feel they’ve not gotten enough although the idea of a satisfied portfolio can’t be determined.

I tend to use 4 years as a minimum timeline in order to attempt to account for either the lump summer old guy who might invest and then think about how much time that he is going to need to be in bitcoin at minimum in order to not be trading rather than investing, and perhaps he is in his late 60s or maybe he has some health issues, and so he can project out his cashflows and if he is already retired for example, he can keep investing, but some of his cashflows are either drying up or they are being eaten away by the debasement of fiat. So such a guy who currently has around $6k income per month from his various non-bitcoin investments and/or maybe from his social security and pension.. those are all fixed income amounts, and the $6k that he receives might account for something like 2% to 6% annual debasement, but it really does not account for the reality debasement that seems to be part of our current times in which the debasement seems to be even higher than 6% per year... so such a guy might put 5-25% of his investment into bitcoin as a lump sum and then have a minimum of a 4 year time-line for such investment to ride before he would start to draw from it (as a supplement to his other investments).

Now if the guy is DCAing for several years, then his earliest years of investment are going to reach the 4 year minimum faster than his later BTC DCA purchases, and frequently guys in the various DCA/investment threads here seem to speculate that they might be able to DCA for 4 years or more and then start to draw upon their investment in 4 years, which from my point of view would also be a bit of a trader mentality if they are just getting in and out of bitcoin rather than considering their investment on a longer time line, and so for example, anyone who might be wanting to get their bitcoin investment up to an amount in which they can start to draw $6k per month from it, they may well need to spend a considerable amount of time investing into it in order to accumulate bitcoin to get to such level that they would be able to start to draw upon it after reaching such level.

For example, right now from my point of view, it would take about 20.2 BTC to be able to start to pretty much be able to rely on withdrawing $6,666 per month on a fairly reliable and consistent basis and in perpetuity. I think that with 20.2 BTC, $6,666 per month could be withdrawn, yet I have formulas of reduction of the withdrawal amount based on how low the BTC spot price gets as compared with the 200-WMA, and those reductions start when the BTC spot price gets to less than 25% above the 200-WMA. See this withdrawal strategy tool for the 20.2 BTC formula and also the below guidelines:

>>>>>"When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,

A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget."<<<<<<<

Right now, 200-WMA is $39,660, so the BTC price of $62,103 is nearly 57% above the 200-WMA. In order to go into withdrawal reduction mode, the BTC price would have to drop below $49,575, so sometimes there could be some value to withdraw some extra BTC when BTC prices are higher if there might be times in which the withdrawal rate is considerably reduced.. such as if the BTC spot price goes more than 35% below the 200-WMA, then the authorized withdrawal rate goes to zero.. and there would be a need to wait out the price getting back up into withdrawal territory, so in that sense there could be need to have money in other things than BTC in order to continue with a life style that allows for $6k per month spending.

Sure, I may be quibbling a bit in regards to how much of a commitment a person needs to have in order to be considered as an investor rather than a trader, and with bitcoin I have difficulties considering anyone with less than a 4-year timeline as an investor.

Sure it is true that anyone could come into an investment with an intention of having more than a 4-year timeline, yet that minimum 4-year timeline could end up getting cut short based on some real life happenings (like an unanticipated emergency), such as injury, disease or death of the investor or of someone of whom the investor is responsible or even some natural disaster calamity that destroys property and/or revenue/income sources and/or causes expenses.

Of course, I might be a bit exaggerated with my $6k per month income requirement (which is kind of in line with a basic western lifestyle entry-level income requirement), and surely there are guys who would be able to feel that they reached their required level with even 1/10th the amount that I suggested (which would be $600 per month) so surely such guys could still use the numbers that I gave and reduce them all by 1/10, and my point of view with BTC instead of needing 20.1 BTC, they would merely need 2.01 BTC in order to reach their $600 per month income requirement.

Quote from: avp2306 on Today at 12:07:59 PM

Quote from: Miles2006 on Today at 04:56:52 AM

[edited out]

I guess they are not confusing people so that they can accumulate large number of bitcoin since for sure their money to use cannot do anything if you mean to manipulate the market even if they fool a lot of people. What usually happen is they mislead people maybe just to have fun with them. They misguide them towards wrong decision making that's why this should be corrected so that the person fooled by those people will learn on how to do good approach towards right investment with bitcoin.

its important to correct those wrong thoughts of people so they can get clear insights and good to have veterans like JJG since they provably know what is the right time span when they talk about long term investment and they will not get confused about the length on when they decide to sell. 4 years minimum should be done by lots of people since I think that year length to see good result with our investment.

Hopefully, you realize that if you are DCA investing, then you are going to have some invested DCA amounts that reach 4 years sooner than others, and if you lump sum invest into bitcoin, then surely those lump sums should have at least 4 years to mature, and hopefully no one is thinking about just getting in and out of BTC with 4 year minimum timeline, absent some compelling reason, and most likely they are going to be better off to start some kind of price based and/or time based withdrawal system with their BTC rather than just getting in and out.. absent some reasonable basis.. So if there might be ideas to draw income from an investment, yet other times, there are reasons to complete draw the principle rather than merely drawing income from the investment.