Quote from: asarfiar on Today at 12:48:55 PM

Quote from: LogitechMouse on March 07, 2024, 06:44:32 PM

Quote from: Dorkylickjj on March 06, 2024, 08:50:37 AM

Given the period we're in is it buy time or sell time?

Well, that just shows that the market is unpredictable.

You can't time the market because it's very unpredictable. You might see it's price going up for a few hours then suddenly, it will go down. Just look at Bitcoin's price a few days ago when the Coinbase anomaly happened. It went down from I think around $68,000 to nearly $59,000 in just a span of a few minutes.

We can assume that the best time to buy bitcoin is when it starts to dip after the bitcoin halving, usually after 3 months is the right time for bitcoin to dip. Bitcoin halvings occur every four years, where the rewards for Bitcoin miners are cut in half.

What you seem to be suggesting comes off as a bit ridiculous. You going to wait every 4 years to buy bitcoin? And a brand new investor may or may not be able to get the dip or even the dip of the dippest.

Anyone coming to bitcoin right now? What should they do? Should they start to buy or should they wait?

Another thing is that we cannot turn back the clock, so the difference between a brand new bitcoin investor and someone who is already in bitcoin is that the person who is already in has already built some bitcoin stash, so then the main question of the one who already has some bitcoin should be whether he has enough or not...

So then the person who already has some bitcoin should be asking what to do.. Should I wait or should I buy more? He cannot go back in time. He can ONLY go based on the information that he has right now. Does he buy or wait?

What are you suggesting that a guy does asarfiar?

From my perspective, the best time to buy bitcoin was yesterday, yet since we cannot go back to yesterday, then we ONLY have today, so the best time to buy bitcoin would be today rather than tomorrow, but hey, whatever.. you can do what you like. If you believe that waiting is a good strategy, then that is your choice.

If you are saying buy today because we are in a post halvening dip, then are you even planning on holding through the whole cycle? Or are you just getting in and out of bitcoin within less than a cycle? You are just playing this wave?

If you are just playing this wave, then you probably don't really understand bitcoin very well in order to figure out that bitcoin is likely better and much more powerful as a long term play rather than trying to fuck around with either trading within a cycle or merely trying to scalp off some dollar profits within this cycle.

Sure, you can be dollar profitable in terms of getting in and getting out, but you still likely are missing quite a bit of bitcoin's value proposition if you merely consider bitcoin as something that you trade or just try to scrape off some short term dollar profits. (short term = less than 4 years - so investment timelines for bitcoin should be 4-10 years or longer)

Quote from: asarfiar on Today at 12:48:55 PM

So, if we take a closer look at the matter, we can see that Bitcoin halving events in the past have been able to establish a long-term bullish driver for the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin halving events are associated with inflationary trends that help the BTC price rise even further and we have seen 2023 as a tangible proof of that. So I think now is the best time to buy Bitcoin.

I doubt that you need all of that analysis..but whatever, your conclusion about buying right away seems to be correct, yet it still seems questionable regarding why it really matters? If someone got into bitcoin in 2022 or even 2023, they would have had been better than today, and even there were times in 2021 that they would have had been better than today, especially if they continued to buy BTC for the whole time.

Even a guy who started buying BTC in the beginning of 2021 would have had bought through two BTC price peaks in 2021, and that guys would have had still been better off today based on his ongoing buying of BTC.

Look at a guy who started buying BTC at $100 per week starting in the beginning of 2021, by now he would have had invested nearly $20k and he would have had accumulated right around 0.5716 BTC (currently valued at about $35.5k), so right around 77% in profits. Sure, he is not yet making a killing, but he would be building a decent BTC stash, and so maybe within another cycle or two, he might be able to make even further progress in terms of his BTC stack size.

Your conclusion about trying to time when to buy seems to be flawed, since probably it is much better to just buy BTC and continue buying BTC rather than trying to be too smart for your own good about trying to figure out when to buy or not to buy.

Quote from: asarfiar on Today at 12:48:55 PM

We have certainly noticed that the Bitcoin market is unpredictable, the reason can be said to be its volatility at the beginning of the year which is the up-and-down Bitcoin market system in a few months. Most Bitcoin investors attribute these fluctuations to the prevailing global macroeconomic and economic conditions.

Are you wanting to trade the ups and downs? or why does it matter if there is a lot of volatility in the short-term? I think that the main point is that over the long terms, BTC's price trajectory tends towards upward. Yet, maybe you have some other assessments in regards to the importance of bitcoin's volatility, which has always been present..and figuring out the exact cause might not even be that important.

Quote from: asarfiar on Today at 12:48:55 PM

Based on the various overall circumstances in particular consideration, I think now is the right time to buy Bitcoin as it is not long before BTC reaches $100K.

You selling at $100k or are you just wanting to accumulate BTC at cheaper prices?

You don't even have 6 months on the forum. Have you been accumulating BTC the whole time? Did you start accumulating BTC prior to coming to the forum?

In my own situation, I had started accumulating BTC in late 2013 about 3 months prior to my forum registration date, so I had already had a bitcoin buying budget and a 6 month accumulation plan at the time that I came to the forum, and largely my participation on the forum was to continue with my BTC accumulation plan and to tweak it at various points along the way, yet I probably still spend a few years mostly accumulating BTC, even though by late 2014, I had assessed that I was under a bit less pressure in regards to my BTC accumulation, even though I continued to engage in such BTC accumulation.. so yeah, it can take a while to just accumulate enough BTC and to feel that you have enough, even in my case, I was attempting to front load my BTC investment, which might not have been as great of an idea as waiting, even though it seems to me that when we are in the moment, we cannot really know with any large confidence which way the BTC price is going to go.