Quote from: bubilas on October 08, 2024, 07:59:58 PM

Quote from: Jewan420 on October 08, 2024, 03:17:32 PM

Quote from: DubemIfedigbo001 on October 08, 2024, 02:18:39 PM

These are the thoughts and words of a trader, not a bitcoin investor. It is appalling that some people that pose as investors still possess trader's mentality to a great extent. waiting for the price to dip before accumulating bitcoin is a trader's instincts, else how do we explain trading apart from waiting for the best opportunity to enter the market in the right price position and possibly exiting when short-term gains are achieved. You can see the correlation between such mindset and trading mindset. It is high time people give up on the trading mindset and pickup investor's mindset which is aimed at accumulating more stashes of bitcoin and targeting at accumulating a definite quantity of bitcoin instead of just focusing on the pricing as determinant factor for accumulation.

Dips are rare opportunities to accumulate more bitcoin at low prices when it presents itself. Waiting for it entirely is a bad investment practice and you can miss out on accumulating good stashes of bitcoin and increasing your portfolio regularly. One funny thing with hoarding fiat and waiting only for the dip is that you might end up spending the money on frivolities and not finally actually buying bitcoin with it.

A person vouching for Bitcoin price prediction is not wise. I can say nothing but idiot to anyone who waits for Bitcoin to fall and sets a certain time. The reason for this is very simple, it is impossible for an individual to predict the Bitcoin price. If anyone predicts for sure then he is a hypocrite, we can expect from Bitcoin but not the future.

If a person has the mindset of being an investor then he should not pay attention to price forecasts and prices. Because an investment goal should always be towards investing. They never look at the price. That's the mindset we get from a trader, a trader's job is always based on price. You cannot be a good trader if you do not understand price movements. You may say, because they understand the price movement, it is easy for them to predict, but you have to understand that an experienced trader also faces losses many times. That is, it is not possible to predict for them. So if you want to become an investor, you need to change your mind-set like a trader and focus more on investing. Always be interested in buying instead of waiting for the price to fall.

Absolutely right, and DCA investing solves the problem of trying to guess the bottom of the price.
Related story: recently a friend of mine started saying that gambling and trading are very similar, and he claimed that they are unpredictable. I just opened my mouth to object, and suddenly realized that the price of Bitcoin is really impossible to predict. It is easy to tie events after the price has moved, but no one knows the course of the price in advance. This is the difference between guessing (trading) and smart DCA investing.

Hopefully, none of us are claiming to know anything or trying to guess, especially short term BTC price movements, so if we generally have some ideas that bitcoin prices are likely to be higher 4-10 years or longer as compared to what they are today, and we also have a general expectation that the amount of the BTC price increases is likely to be at least better than the debasement of the dollar, then perhaps it would be better to have some allocation in bitcoin, including money that we don't mind tying up for 4-10 years or longer.

I doubt that we are really predicting, yet we can still try to figure out our position size in such a way that we realize that the most that we could lose is 100%, and so we just kind of hope it works out in our 4-10 year or longer investment timeline..and that we will be in better position for having had invested into bitcoin as compared to if we had not invested into bitcoin.

Quote from: ginsan on October 08, 2024, 09:59:16 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 08, 2024, 05:24:34 PM

Investing $50k into bitcoin over 8 years should totally be within reach of some one who currently might be able to invest around $71 per week with perhaps some anticipation that over the coming 8 years his disposable income will increase and he would be able to invest 10% more into bitcoin each year. It would look something like this.

Of course over an 8 year period of time, a person could have a regular DCA amount, but also there might be times in which cashflow is better and/or times when cashflow is worse.

We also cannot really be sure how many bitcoin that might be accumulated through such a strategy, and perhaps we could attempt to project that out too by adding columns in regards to the anticipated bitcoin price in order to get some ideas regarding how many BTC that we might be able to accumulate of the situation, yet we can ONLY approximate, and it might look something like this:

I understand that some folks might consider these numbers to be overly pessimistic (bearish), and so you can create your own chart and put your own estimated numbers in there. You can also attempt to be more granular about it too, if you like, yet from my own experience, there can be some value in regards to attempting to be somewhat general in future projections and then just tweak them from time to time as time passes (such as where the future becomes the past and then the numbers become known).

This is what I really like. because I find it difficult to organize in detail if our planning is for the next 10 years. In your explanation it is quite good especially when our cash flow improves we can increase the budget in the following year compared to the year we have gone through. It seems like this is a pretty good example with a budget that can be invested in bitcoin either $50k routinely with a target of 8 years or with a lower $25k with a target of 5 years.

Of course we have a couple of changing variables, namely the amount of your disposable income and the expected change in the BTC price, and so I consider that I put a somewhat base case, and of course the table could be more granular such as twice a year or quarterly or even monthly, and surely there can be value in each of the cases, and you can get some general ideas where you might be if your investment timeline might be 10 years but you can see if you are still on track after 2 years, 5 years, 8 years etc... .. so you have the amount that you put in and you have the uncertainties of how much BTC it is going to get you, too.

So if I put mmore of base case, then you could have scenarios that are worse or way worse in terms of the BTC price, or higher or way higher in terms of BTC price, and your results are going to be different under each of the scenarios, and so surely once you create one table, then future tables become easier, and you could also create tables in which you link back to another field so that you change one or two things and then the whole table result change based on your one or two changes.

Quote from: ginsan on October 08, 2024, 09:59:16 PM

I also agree that sometimes a person's income can increase every year and cash flow can also be bad. But if cash flow is bad or we lose our permanent job because we are fired from our company, what is the right step to take at that time.

Sure your results are going to change if your disposable income gets worse, and so you want to try to be somewhat realistic in your projections, and if you really value building your BTC holdings, you may well may try to figure out how to have back up plans if you lose your main sources of income. Of course, folks tend to want to make as much money as they can for as little effort as they can, but sometimes, opportunities are not very available in some areas or for some people.. so you should be attempting to be realistic in your projection, and if you have no ability to really expect to be able to increase your amount of contributions in accordance with the expectations of the table then you either need to make the table more conservative or to increase your employabiity and/or cashflow and/or decrease your expenses.

Some things are more feasible than other things, and if you are making an unrealistic table, then you are likely going to end up not meeting the expectations of the table, so probably you have to figure out what you are going to put, and of course with the passage of time, the projection of the table can get further and further out, and you can adjust it both in terms of what has already happened but also if your expectations might change based on either positive or negative developments, and if you create tables with overly rosey scenarios without also considering conservative scenarios, then you are likely merely fooling yourself and so there is value in regards to not getting your expectations up too much about things that might be outside of your control or your abilities to affect...and even if you have good abilities, you can sometimes still end up with some bad luck, too...so there is value in trying to account for those kinds of matters when you are projecting out scenarios, and perhaps starting with a base case projection and then perhaps creating alternative tables with better case scenarios and worse case scenarios.

Quote from: ginsan on October 08, 2024, 09:59:16 PM

Regarding pricing, it might be different because we also cannot predict the price of bitcoin for the next 8 years. It could possibly go up to $500k because supply is limited.

My table gives the average for a whole year, so in some sense my table is not very representative of a lot of the ups and downs that might take place within any of the years, and so the more scenarios or the more granular that you try to be in your projections, then the more variations of tables that you might need to create in order to see how they might play out in relation to your own personal circumstances...while considering that some table projections will be more realistic than others, and also that there could well be periods that the BTC price shoots up 5x to 10x and then comes back down to close to where it was prior to shooting up, so the average for the whole year ends up being way less than 50% of the top prices for that period of time.