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Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 08, 2024, 03:15:12 PM

Quote from: DubemIfedigbo001 on October 08, 2024, 11:33:34 AM

Quote from: Just Say on October 07, 2024, 03:17:50 PM

[edited out]

Bitcoin investment might arguably not be the best investment in the world, but it is surely a good one, and its accumulation is held greatly in preference to some concerns which is mostly shitcoins investment, trading, government interference and hoarding fiat.

I am having trouble understanding which investments might be better than bitcoin, especially if we are talking longer term, such as 4-10 years or longer.

I have done some research in regards to this explanation, but I still find it difficult to understand or know the exact investment that is more profitable than bitcoin.
1) investing on stock or purchasing shears from bank does not give the profit that bitcoin gives in a year or 4 year timeframe.
2) staking coin to earn APY in a year will end up given %3 or 3.2 Roi in a year which can only be a profit made in 24hours of bitcoin movement
3) investment on bond and Mutua fund. this category are the set of people or union which contributes money and loan to an organisation withing a specific period, the profit amount in return will be ahead among the cooperative society. the interest will be shared according to the amount each an everyone has invested, which can't even match the profit bitcoin will hive.
4) real estate and exchange-traded fund (ETF) doesn't give the profit bitcoin can give.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 08, 2024, 03:15:12 PM

Quote from: DubemIfedigbo001 on October 08, 2024, 11:33:34 AM

Other people might have their conviction in investing in real Estates or even Agriculture which is still profitable too.

Some people might need to invest into something to help them to generate an income, so sometimes business men might need to roll over profits from their business into keeping building and expanding the business, which might be the best for their own situation in terms of being able to earn an income, since something like bitcoin requires a disposable income otherwise the advantages of investing 4-10 years or more could not be realized.

one thing for sure is that people might have different type of investment approach apart from bitcoin and Its not questionable. but the fact that it can be compeard to bitcoin is the fact I cant accept. you can not compare the profit of a farmer or a person that invested on real estate with $10 around 2009 and a bitcoin investor who invested $10 in late 2009 till date that iswhen bitcoin was $0.00099 each according to research. let's say if 1 bitcoin= 0.00099 ×10000= 9.9. that is to say $10 worth of bitcoin in 2008 was 10000 bitcoin. today 10k BTC= $630millon if bitcoin is currently $63k. now tell me which kind of investment is more profitable. so bitcoin still remain the best when patient is involved in a longer period of time.

I still have troubles suggesting to a business man to stop leveraging his skills and/or talents in building a business and invest into bitcoin. Perhaps that the best we can attempt to do is to try to get those folks to hedge their bets a bit and to put some of their cashflow into bitcoin.

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Quote from: Justbillywitt on October 08, 2024, 02:41:31 PM

Even if someone tells me today that bitcoin will get to $2m before the end of next year, I will believe it.

Even though we don't doubt that bitcoin will increase in due time, we should also be more realistic to know that bitcoin can not just grow to $2m dollar In the space of 1 year. That would be a massive push of %millions. even as though it was just a speculation but it may not possible anytime soon.

It is better if we prefer not to live in simulation, Bitcoin has the opportunity of conquering several prices but it is kind of an over exaggeration to completely ignore how the flow of Bitcoin prices move considering each phases of the market. Believing that Bitcoin can hit $2M by next year should be completely false, it is not possible even the price of $150K is still highly anticipated by then.

Over exaggeration has been a reason why investors are getting in balance (less or no profits) while investing, they invest too much of what they have in anticipation of making massive profits due to some rumored or questionable speculations that is likely not to happen and this tends to put them at risk.

I will agree that $2 million in this cycle (lets say by the end of 2025 or perhaps into 2026 is likely less than a 0.5% odds,. but it is not impossible as you proclaim.

In late 2021, I did a probability outline, and you can look at it if you like. I still stand by the strategy and the general numbers of that outline, even though maybe they might need to be tweaked a bit, and also anyone can make their own outline.

Here it is for easy reference.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:54 AM

.....
Accordingly, I will currently (last revised December 16, 2021), in my opinion, I will place odds for UPside scenario within the below parameters:**

above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million - nearly most bullish of scenarios - about 2% odds

$650k to $800k - aggressively highly bullish - about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k - Optimistically highly bullish - about 7.75% odds

$220k to $450k - Moderately highly bullish - about 14.5% odds

$120k to $220k - moderately bullish - about 15.5% odds

$92k to $120k - not very bullish - about 5.5% odds

$62k to $92k - Not getting through deadman's zone.. (and therefore having a top somewhere in this range) - about 5% odds

$52k to $62k - Topping out in this pre-deadman's zone range, and not getting into deadman's zone - about 11.5% odds

DOWN from our current range of $45k to $52k as the top for this cycle - most bearish - but surely possible with decent odds - about 33.5% odds

**Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments.

As far as timeline: (last revised December 16, 2021)

Already peaked out in 2021 at $69k: 45%

Peaks out higher than $69k at some point in 2021: 2%

Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 24%

Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 17%

Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 8.5%

Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022 (such as 4th quarter but before 2nd quarter 2023): 3.5%

Peaks out after 2nd quarter 2023: 1%

........

In May 2022, I did downward scenarios too..

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:54 AM

Downside Scenarios (last revised May 19, 2022)

As I type this downside scenario, we seem to largely staying within a $27k to $32k range, so it seems that the $25,401 bottom from May 11/12 is not currently being tested in any immediate sense.

To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35k) and we have now been below the 100-weekMA for nearly two weeks.. we have transitioned from a bull market into a bear market... so the odds have become greater to break down than up... but still how far the BTC price breaks down is not exactly known in advance, either.

So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the peak of the bottom would end up being.. Based on ongoing downward momentum and even short-term bearish macro factors, at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds for the whole down range at about 51% right now.. even though I am somewhat just stabbing in the dark, really... But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down currently add up to 51%. Note also that if the BTC price breaks further down, the numbers are likely going to need to revise.. but then at some point it might not be clear if the market might convert back from bearish to bullish.

Anyhow, here's a possible assignment percentages for where the bottom might occur from our current range bottom of $27k as I type.**

bottom of current $27k already reached and will not be breached - most timid of bearish scenarios - about 10% odds

$25.4k to $27k - could happen bearish - about 12% odds

$22.5k to $25.4k - pretty severe bearish - about 13.5% odds

$20k to $22.5k - worser case bearish - about 8.5% odds

$17.5k to $20k - a bit of a stretch bearish - about 3.75% odds

$13k to $17.5k - overly bearish - about 2% odds

$10k to $13k - way overly bearish - about 0.75% odds

below $10k - not very likely but possible - less than 0.5% odds

I also did a revise range in which I put greater than $2.5 million at 0.5%.. but my $2 million number was within a range that I had given to be 2%. . so maybe I might need to revise that.. but it is still capturing my opinion that there is a way to account for that there are not non-zero chances for some of the outrageous ends of the price range.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 15, 2021, 02:10:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 11, 2023, 11:13:49 PM

Let's say that we presume that a new ATH comes on or before the end of 2025, then what would the amount of the ATH be and what would be the odds of reaching (but not exceeding during the time period) that price range, more or less?

Maybe something like this?

Bearish: $69,001 to $80k - 25%

Conservative: $80,001 to $150k - 35%

Middle: $150,001 to $500k - 30%

High: $500,001 to $1 million - 7.75%

Pie in the sky: $1,000,001 to $2.5 million- 2%

SuperCharged Pie in the sky: greater than $2.5 million- less than 0.5%

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 08, 2024, 03:15:12 PM

Quote from: DubemIfedigbo001 on October 08, 2024, 11:33:34 AM

When I have discussions with friends who have different investment mindsets, I simply ask them if they have money set aside for savings and they do not intend using anytime soon and does not affect their living activities. when they respond in affirmation, I introduce accumulating bitcoin another way to help them save their spare money for a longer period of time instead of just hoarding it in the banks and we are good. I don't convince them to stop their own investments, I only let them see bitcoin as a way of preserving their funds from devaluation, investing spare funds and in turn getting good profits in the long run.

That is fair enough. There are some folks who might already be investing and/or saving, and for them, bitcoin can supplement what they are already doing to potentially complement what they are already doing, yet like you suggested, they need to have some level of discretionary income first, and I would suggest that they need a 4-10 year or longer timeline to invest into bitcoin if they want to come into bitcoin as an investment rather than merely attempting to trade it.

I think the problem is that, a lot people who go into Bitcoin investment often have a misguided mentality about Bitcoin investment, they often believe that Bitcoin investment is often one magical way to get rich overnight or some kind of a liquid asset that they can easily just buy at a low price, wait for a little while and then Boom, there's a sudden increase in the market price and then they sell off, making themselves some good profit. But in reality, it's quite the opposite.

People can jump into bitcoin and then sell it and achieve dollar profits.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

In reality, Bitcoin is actually a very volatile and high risk investment, However also a high reward investment too but to enjoy this promised reward, the investor must be willing to exercise a great deal of patience, discipline and must also be willing to ride out short term market fluctuations by considering the asset's long term trajectory.

I agree with you that it is better to play bitcoin for the long term, but that still does not mean that people cannot make dollar profits from their bitcoin ~~investment~~ trade in the short-term. They just might not do as well to trade bitcoin as compared with long term investing, especially if we might look at a couple cycles down the road..

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

The volatility of Bitcoin can indeed be frustrating for those who do not really understand the dynamics of the asset,

Volatility can be frustrating for long term HODLers too. We see quite a bit of it on this forum and sometimes they are shaken out of their position (part or all) and other times they HODL through it while complaining the whole time.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

but for those who understand the underlying value proposition as well as its potential for long-term benefits, they'll surely reap its benefits.

That is likely to be true. It has been true historically, and it has good chances to continue to be true, even though profits are not guaranteed.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

One major misconception people (especially newbies) often have about Bitcoin is viewing it as a suitable asset for short term trading. So this pushes them to attempt to profit from the Bitcoin's daily price movement, but due to the fact that it's impossible to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin in the short-term, this approach mostly ends in financial disaster and disappointment. In contrast, those who consider Bitcoin to be a great way to store wealth and HODL through unfavorable market conditions, often reap the benefits in the long-term.

I agree that the mindset of the trader is going to also be screwed up if he is fucking around with trading rather than just ongoingly buying and holding and maybe just figuring out how many BTC that he is going to need before he might start to price based or time based or needs based start to sell some off in a kind of sustainable way.

Hopefully we are not getting into bitcoin to just get a lambo or some kind of a short-term frill, even though there are some folks who think about (and practice) their bitcoin investment in that kind of a short-term profits way.

Quote from: Tungbulu on Today at 04:41:10 PM

Another Misconception, I believe people often have about Bitcoin is the possibility that Bitcoin would replace the traditional fiat system, or a way to quickly fix the economy's financial downturns, meanwhile in reality, Bitcoin is more of a complimentary asset that has the ability to diversify portfolios and a great way to provide a shield to investors against inflation, possible downturns in the market and currency devaluation, and the sooner we correct these misconceptions, the more we have a better view of Bitcoin and its potentials.

Even if bitcoin is not necessarily going to replace the traditional fiat system in the short term, bitcoin is still ongoingly experiencing the gravitation of value into it since bitcoin is the superior asset and the superior money... so sure it could take 50-100 years or longer for bitcoin to become dominant, yet the ongoing gravitation of value into bitcoin is still happening and that is part of the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis. I do agree that there is likely value to attempt to keep some fee in both areas, yet there are some people who are completely building in bitcoin and/or figuring out ways to minimize their ongong support of traditional investments. Jeff Booth talks about these kinds of matters a lot, which makes quite a bit of sense.