Quote from: pawel7777 on October 12, 2024, 02:24:55 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 12, 2024, 01:20:16 AM

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It would be a long shot for bitcoin to shoot straight up to $2 million, yet it also is not beyond the realm of possibilties.

Shooting up to $2 million woudl be right around a 32x from here.
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This is a good example of how some metrics are not fit for all purposes. The multipliers, or percentage figures of changes in price in the past are not in any way an indicator of what could happen in the future.
In simple terms:
Increasing your net worth from $1 to $100 is not hard, even a homeless junkie could do that without much effort. But going from $1 billion to $100 billion, or even just to $2 billion, is a whole different story.

In setting up hopes for BTC's price, we need to consider how much new money would have to flow to the market rather than focusing on past ratios.

If you might potentially understand what bitcoin is, and if you might have potentially understood my post in regards to the 0.5%-ish odds of bitcoin reaching $2 million this cycle, then you might be able to understand how a 32x price increase is not out of reach, whether it might take 1-2 years or 2-3 more cycles or maybe even a bit longer than that.

Money flows might potentially be a good way to assess bitcoin as compared with some other assets, to the extent that bitcoin may well ONLY have so much of a liquid market and bitcoin's money flows can actually be seen onchain too as compared with some difficulties in seeing the movement of many other assets... yet there can sometimes be difficulties knowing whether bitcoin are real when they are moving around within the confines of 3rd party custodians, so in some sense there can be some questions in regards to whether various 3rd parties have the coins that they claim to have.. which makes it difficult to measure, and sometimes clear if there might be a blow up that could go either UP or DOWN if the third party does not have the coins they claim to have.

Another measure is market cap, and if we understand how bitcoin might be valued as compared with gold's market cap, then we might reasonably come to an assessment that bitcoin is about 1,000x more valuable than gold in terms of various aspects of moneyness, referring to scarcity, transportability, verifiability, costs of using it, programability, physicality and other attributes that might be pluses or minuses, and right now bitcoin is ONLY valued around 1/15th the value of gold in terms of market cap, so that means that bitcoin is potentially around 30,000x undervalued as compared with gold, so does gold have to come down, or bitcoin go up or is there some combination of those going on or do they both go up? And, you might not even believe in such an assessment that bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold... That's your choice.

Whether you believe or not, it could take a 50-100 years for bitcoin to reach its fair value as compared to gold in terms of the 1,000x assessment, yet none of the price appreciation or reevaluation is guaranteed to take place, and if we might attempt to get some sense of why bitcoin had been moving up in its price historically rather than presuming that bitcoin is a bubble or that bitcoin is a mature asset, and if we fail/refuse to recognize/appreciate that bitcoin is both in an exponential s-curve adoption phase and that its adoption level remains pretty damned low for a relatively new asset class, then we might be able to appreciate various upside potentials for bitcoin that go into its price rather than merely poo-pooing the various ways of valuating bitcoin.. including that I had ONLY mentioned the $2 million per coin in this cycle to have around 0.5% chances, so don't be trying to proclaim that my odds are unrealistic or that $2 million is unrealistic on terms that were not stated by me, since I had already given an assessment that shows $2million to have pretty low odds for this cycle, yet I am not going to proclaim that it is not possible to reach $2 million this cycle - even if you are a doubter... and you would prefer to stick with absolute ideas of zero odds rather than actually attempting to appreciate what I had said in my response in regards to $2million this cycle.

Frequently if you are amongst those who are misreading what I said and then exaggerating some past performance does not equal future performance trite, then you still seem to be missing the point, and hopefully you are not too busy failing/refusing to prepare for various up scenarios in regards to bitcoin, even it you might not need to prepare for $2 million in this cycle with its potentially only 0.5% odds.

Another thing that any of us should understand about bitcoin as an asymmetric upside bet is that we do not have to put a lot of money into bitcoin in order to prepare for various upside scenarios that might have low odds of happening, and that is one of the powers of compounding on the way up. When we have compounding on the way down, we can still ONLY lose up to 100% of what we put into bitcoin (as long as we don't leverage our position), yet the compounding on the way up remains powerful, even if there are folks who want to poo-poo upside scenarios as if they were zero percent odds when they aren't zero, but those upside scenarios still exist even if they might well be low odds, such as the $2 million this cycle with around less than 0.5% odds.

Quote from: pawel7777 on October 12, 2024, 03:35:36 PM

Quote from: Marvelockg on October 12, 2024, 03:02:35 PM

Quote from: pawel7777 on October 12, 2024, 02:24:55 PM

Increasing your net worth from $1 to $100 is not hard, even a homeless junkie could do that without much effort. But going from $1 billion to $100 billion, or even just to $2 billion, is a whole different story.

I wouldn't agree entirely that your analogy suits the Bitcoin context and even with the general economic sense of upscaling from a $1 point to $100, I Believe it's always more deficult at the starting point than it becomes when you've witnessed some level of growth and have gained a wide range of trust accross the globe like what has happened in the Bitcoin scenario.

You would be right if we were talking about growth in terms of the actual amounts of money flowing into the market, in such case - yes it's more difficult to attract big money at the start.
But I'm talking purely about ratios (e.g. x10, x32, x100 etc). There's almost zero difficulty in making high ratios at the start. You could literally create a shit coin this afternoon, start trading it at say $0.00001 and just buy it from yourself for $1. Congrats, it just made a x100,000 return, but good luck repeating that when there's a real market with big volume.

You are talking out of your ass pawel7777. Of course it takes more money to move bitcoin when the market cap is larger, yet at the same time have you been asleep?

In the beginning bitcoin had hardly any volume and hardly anyone knew about it, and perhaps we might say that bitcoin did not have a price until around early 2012 when it was $5 per coin, and even in early 2012, hardly anyone knew about bitcoin. The players in bitcoin have been getting bigger and BIGger and BIGGER with the passage of time, so even if we still ONLY have 1% of the world's population in bitcoin, there still have been more and more businesses getting into bitcoin, more governments getting involved, and more high wealth individuals getting involved adn hoarding 1,000s of bitcoin, so sure the demand on bitcoin has to increase for the BTC price to go up, and surely it seems that demand continues to go up and at the same time it seems that maybe you have been sleeping if you are presuming that bitcoin's demand has not been going up sufficiently to justify the BTC price to go up?

Even for example, the bitcoin spot ETFs in the US has opened bitcoin to a lot more new buyers, individuals, institutions and governments and those registered investment advisors are still expanding and becoming eligible to offer to their clients, and the various ETF providers continue to buy bitcoin, which puts additional demand on the bitcoin supply.. and you can ignore those kinds of dynamics all that you like.. and have fun staying poor too. with .. your failure / refusal to accept and/or recognize upside bitcoin price scenarios.