Let's not forget that the money inflow needed to lift our number by 7x is not the same as it was: it depends on the price when the liftoff starts. I'm not saying that 7x in a few months is out of the realm of what's possible, but only that it's not the most likely course. I wouldn't mind a short term (2025) 3x-4x to be honest, which appears to have higher chances, based on sophisticated SOMA models.
Gosh your "most-likely case" seems quite bearish
like you need a slap.. .. .hhahahahaha.... to snap you out of it since you seem to recognize (and poo poo) that the 7x expectations from here are considerations of the ending point of this particular cycle.. .which could be through 2025 and it is possible that it could linger into 2026 (though not seemingly likely.. but who knows?).
Don't get me wrong. I am not opposed to conservative scenarios, but labelling conservative scenarios as "the most likely" seems a wee bit presumptuous.
I actually said it's _not_ the most likely.
Can you provide an example of a different scenario (event) that you would characterize as MOAR likely than pulling a 7x within, say, 2025 or "until the top", whenever we might stipulate this bull's done? The simple complementary event "anything but 7x" doesn't qualify as particularly fair. On the other hand, asking for both a number and a time interval begs for soothsaying, which is not your forte
or even something you seem to condone too much.Thoughts? Anything workable comes to mind?
I would shake hands and be delighted if we even do 50% of that kind of move.
Half as much (3.5x) seems more doable to me (event with higher probability). Not signing in blood ink for that myself, though.
Under 3.5x? Over 7x + 3.5x = 10x? Over 7x * 2?
Other than that, can you see any conservative scenarios (more likely if at all possible) in the room with us?
Bat slap accepted
Shaking hands, this is delight
Bear apologies
#haiku