Quote from: Strongkored on October 14, 2024, 11:41:09 PM

Quote from: piebeyb on September 01, 2024, 04:05:59 PM

So is it possible that history will repeat itself and of course I need to see a lot of speculation in this thread and also bitcoin price analysis next year whether it will repeat the cycle or not. while the $100k price target is highly anticipated Wink

I am not good at analyzing but if we look at the 4-year cycle then the highest price of Bitcoin in 2025 is very likely to touch $ 180,000 maybe more than that but my prediction will not be more than $ 220,000 and that number is enough to provide profit to those who buy it starting today even though today the price of Bitcoin is starting to rise.
The 4-year cycle has never been failed in previous periods and so will be for 2025, and it would be better to anticipate this by buying wisely.

That is a pretty narrow range of top prices - in essence a top range for this cycle from $180k to $220k, which would be a top of 6.67x to 8.15x if we are measuring from our $27k BTC price base from October 2023 or a top of 2.75x to 3.33x if we were measuring our BTC price from today-ish. Even if you might end up "guessing" correctly with your range, and even if the top might end up being lower than that range, that range is still pretty conservative as far as top ranges are concerned.

I would say that your numbers are not unrealistic as a sort of base case, yet many of us should understand and appreciate by now that in bitcoinlandia, even base cases can end up being undershot or overshot by what actually ends up happening.

You have been registered on the forum for nearly 9 years, so hopefully you have been figuring out bitcoin in the last 9-ish years, even though when I quickly browse through your post history, I see that you have spent quite a bit of time in various shitcoin and/or gambling threads, so you might have some difficulties figuring out and understanding bitocin if you have been failing/refusing to invest into it in the past 9-ish years, so if you see my earlier post from above, you can see that $100 per week into bitcoin would have had put you in a very decently good position, and perhaps in a position where you might feel that you might be in a position to start to shave off some profits based on either price based ideas or even time based ideas, yet still it can take a while to accumulate BTC, even if we might be able to set aside a decently good sized weekly buying budget.. which you may or may not have had been able to accomplish that over the last 9 years.

If you had not been accumulating BTC for the past 9 years, then you might not necessarily yet be in a position to be able to start shaving off profits, even though surely many of us already know that traders and gamblers don't really seem to know how to focus their time, energies and money to accumulate bitcoin rather than figuring out ways to prematurely take profits and then to be in a less beneficial position in regards to various compounding effects that could be enjoyed after a cycle or two of accumulating and holding BTC...

I am not meaning to overly lecture you about your seemingly conservative case for bitcoin, yet it is true that a lot of folks have been spending a lot of time in areas related to bitcoin and adjacent to bitcoin, yet still either not understanding bitcoin or failing/refusing to appreciate the range of upside potentials that bitcoin continues to have, even if some of the bullish cases may or may not end up playing out within this particular cycle. .and even though surely there remain a lot of reasons why relatively bullish cases (more than just $180k to $220k tops) could well have decently good chances of playing out within this cycle, and not that even I am putting high percentages on supra $220k scenarios playing out, especially since even in my lat 2021 prediction, my ideas of a top higher than $220k were in the ballpark of 29%, and so I have not sat down and tried to figure out if I consider odds of greater than $220k BTC prices for this cycle to be higher than 29% or not.... whether I might want to revise downward or upward.. I have not yet figured it out those numbers for my own thinking, even though 29% odds do come off as being pretty hight, and they surely are quite a bit higher than your placing $220k as the top of your prediction range for this cycle.

Quote from: STT on October 14, 2024, 11:59:49 PM

I think you have the answer to this question occurring right now. If we fail to pass the 70k area in this whole current positive move then I set back my aspirations by quite alot.

Oh gawd!!!!! What a negative Nancy you happen to be.

To me it is a BIG So fucking what? if the BTC price goes above $70k or not. who cares? The BTC price is going to do what it is going to do, and we are not even in a bad location right now, even if we don't get an upward break from here.

You seem to be placing unrealistic expectations that bitcoin has to do x, y or z otherwise you are no longer a fan.. like you are going to take your marbles and go home.. or some other bullshit of becoming depressed because you have some lame ass ideas in your head that bitcoin has to conform with some kind of a non-stop upward price trajectory in order to be fulfilling some kind of unrealistic expectations that you have about what it should do and/or when it should do it.

You probably already understand the various ideas that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and surely various periods of irrationality are ways to shake out the weak hands (which you seem to be if you cannot accept that UPpity might take longer than what is in your own view of when and by how much the UPpity should happen).

Quote from: STT on October 14, 2024, 11:59:49 PM

We'll struggle into 2025 on that basis or by that I mean take longer with a slighter gradient to any gains,

The more you write, the more ridiculous that you sound.

Have you even been in bitcoin for very long?

Haven't you previously witnessed unrealistically long period in which the BTC price was kept down and then suddenly the BTC price explodes to the upside? I feel like I should not even have to list those various periods of time, and currently, the BTC price is not even in a bad place if you consider that in October 2023 we were around $27k and then the price pretty much went into our current "no man's land"/"don't wake me up zone" of $55k-ish to $74k-ish for the past 8-ish months. We have been largely consolidating at the top of BTC's price range for 8 months.. and what is wrong with that? You speculate that consolidating within our current range signifies that we are not going to experience any explosive upward BTC price moves? Sure, maybe you are correct, yet you seem way to cock-sured when you are coming out with such Debbie-downer, party-poop proclamations.

But, hey whatever, do what you like. Even though I am commenting about your post, I am not going to let your pessimism to gunk up various other (and probably more likely) positive scenarios.

Quote from: STT on October 14, 2024, 11:59:49 PM

maybe there is relevance from the imminent election but for now I think its a problem of low volume.

I don't see any material and/or significant evidence of low volume. ETFs are continuing to suck up BTC supply and Saylor continues to buy outrageous amounts, and sure someone is selling those coins (perhaps retail, who knows or maybe some of the BTC are fake), but from my perspective there continues to be a lot of ongoing purchasing of BTC, and too bad so sad if you happen to be some dumbass lame retail person (or a newbie, no coiner or low coiner) who does not figure out that they should be buying BTC rather than poo-pooing it.

Good luck to the lame ones who are failing/refusing to accumulate BTC - especially if they are low coiners and/or no coiners, which it happens to be that an overwhelming majority of the world's population happens to be situated as no coiners and/or low coiners, including that perhaps ONLY around 1% of the world's population has gotten some bitcoin, so surely a lot of the normies in the world are going to end up coming to bitcoin.

Quote from: STT on October 14, 2024, 11:59:49 PM

We can talk about price but really in 2025 what matters is more volume in trading, usage and more users is my ideal for higher prices. The same or less people just buying more in my estimation makes us top heavy. I'd rather we do take longer to develop, I'm fine if we are building slowly till next April. Any price around here is no negative and the more we stay here I think the higher we do go eventually just not now or even in a few months.

Gosh. How did you become such a technical analysis expert? I am not proclaiming that you are going to be wrong, even though I think that you are speaking with a bit more certainty that what seems to be justifiable. But, hey whatever. We are each entitled to our own analysis, and hopefully you are not failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP with your ideas of best-case scenarios of gradualness in regards to bitcoin's upward price trajectory.