The Bitbo volatility index, which shows the Bitcoin price's volatilty over 30 or 60 days, has grown a bit since 2023, but still it hasn't reached a value similar to earlier bull markets.
The current value is at 1,7 for the 30-day volatility and 1,78 for the 60-day volatility. And the record low still is from 2023, when the 30-day value fell to 0,77, similar to the value of gold.
Bull markets and early bear markets were very volatile in the past due to FOMO and panic phases. The only bull market when similar values were achieved was the late crypto winter 2015/2016, when prices started to rise again. But as you can see in the graph, the volatility back then spiked regularly to 4 or even 5%. This is not the case in 2024 anymore, we only saw briefly 3% in the 30-day volatility in August, after the dip down into the 50k area.
I think this is a good sign, we're only one or two steps away to bring volatility down to values when Bitcoin could become more interesting as a currency or unit of account. Gold is currently at 0,5-1%. This is the value we'd like to achieve, even if probably there still will be some spikes to 2% for a long time.
This is probably a great thing for the longevity of Bitcoin as an actual currency rather than a commodity. People need to be comfortable keeping it and using it as a functional item, the best way to do that is knowing that if you have money stored in Bitcoin form, that it will not lose 10 or 20% of it's value while you are sleeping that can be caused by any number of unpredictable events. Sure, it can go up, but you should settle for a steady increase over a long time period than a massive up and down effect. Let's hope this continues because it might actually cause more retail and average investors to start pouring money into it if it is a bit more stable.