Quote from: laijsica on October 30, 2024, 05:33:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 30, 2024, 01:29:24 AM

Quote from: Antonil on October 29, 2024, 05:55:47 PM

Everyone wants to be profitable. But currently a pump in Bitcoin has shaken the thinking of about 60% of DAC holders. Those who started holding DCA at $38k now have a clear portfolio of around 50%. And they decided not to continue the DCA, but to dissolve it. If you can afford to run DCA, I'd say it's smarter to run DCA rather than lighten your portfolio. Because experts say to continue DCA hold till next cycle.

So let us wait for a maximum ATH of reality without thinking

Yep. You describe a somewhat common error in which newbies make such mistake to discontinue or to lighten their DCA amounts, and there surely are risks in going down that path, including that they end up failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately stack enough sats.. and they may also end up fomo buying at way higher prices, especially if the BTC price goes up and fails/refuses to come back down as they may well were anticipating it to do, and they ONLY have themselves to blame for such a gambling mindset that tries to outsmart the BTC price.. .. and then they end up with way fewer BTC than they should have or could have had.

I think a DCA folk should focus on accumulating bitcoin regularly rather than focusing too much on the price so that he doesn't get hit by the investment-destroying tendency called FOMO. An investor can reach his desired point by holding bitcoins and running for a few cycles regularly. I've noticed in bull markets that people aren't showing much inclination to sell. Through investment advice with experienced Bitcoin investors around me, I understand that most target holdings above $100k.

Why do you give any shits about what others are doing, and how about thinking about yourself?

Why do you give too many shits about $100k?

What are you doing?

You registered on the forum in February 2024.. , so you don't even have a whole year on the forum.

Have you been accumulating BTC the whole time?

Perhaps you need to think about yourself. what are you doing? Have you been DCAing?

Were you able to front load your BTC investment?

How is your cashflow management doing? How about your emergency fund? Do you have one?

You can probably recognize that I am a bit confused why you give too many shits about $100k, especially if you might not have started accumulating BTC prior to your forum registration date ..and so maybe if you might have had been accumulating longer than your forum registration date or maybe if you might have been able to front load your BTC investment, then sure maybe you have some considerations about $100k, other than just continuing to accumulate BTC..

Maybe you should explain.. since I hardly understand why anyone would post about what they consider others to be doing since following what others are doing is likely not going to be very helpful in regards to making sure you got your own plan and practices in place that are comfortable to your own personal circumstances and/or perspective about bitcoin.

Quote from: laijsica on October 30, 2024, 05:33:46 AM

With the help of DCA method an investor can expect to reduce investment risk as well as a huge stack and portfolio growth with alternative income over time.

Is that what you are doing? Are you building your income to be able to buy bitcoin or are you thinking about bitcoin as being an alternative income to yourself?

I can hardly think of too many scenarios that a person with less than 4 years buying bitcoin would start to consider feasibility of having their bitcoin start to serve as an alternative income to themselves, unless perhaps some situations of relatively extreme frontloading of the investment.

Quote from: laijsica on October 30, 2024, 05:33:46 AM

Some small investors may suffer from FOMO during price surges which may hold them back from holding more Bitcoins Every investor should make a habit of depositing Bitcoins at regular intervals regardless of the price.

Sure. This part makes sense. If we are buying regularly, then we should be more informed about what to do, yet small investors still could make mistakes in regards to slowing down their regular bitcoin buying.. yet I suppose if they at least had been buying regularly, then their mistake should be less bad than the one who might hold back buying for long periods of time, and then end up getting too worked up about trying to figure out when to buy when really all times are likely good times to buy for the beginner, especially in the first one or two cycles until the BTC stash size starts to become much larger relative to his other investments or even relative to his annual salary/expenses.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 30, 2024, 06:05:56 AM

Quote from: Antonil on October 29, 2024, 05:55:47 PM

Everyone wants to be profitable. But currently a pump in Bitcoin has shaken the thinking of about 60% of DAC holders. Those who started holding DCA at $38k now have a clear portfolio of around 50%. And they decided not to continue the DCA, but to dissolve it. If you can afford to run DCA, I'd say it's smarter to run DCA rather than lighten your portfolio. Because experts say to continue DCA hold till next cycle.

I believe for those people, they could still continue to buy every small DIP/discount now that it's becoming VERY obvious that Bitcoin is back to surging to ATH after another ATH.

JayJuanGee, is this the actual moment where we could truly say that Bitcoin will NEVER crash below $50,000 again?
But I'm not going to say it out of avoiding any "superstitious events". Cool

I hate to assign high probabilities to any set of BTC price moves, yet I will say that ever since about February or March I had been proclaiming that I would be willing to bet that the BTC price is not going to go more than 20% higher than the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, and so in that regard, I am merely considering BTC prices staying at least 20% higher than the 200-WMA to be slightly greater than 50/50 odds or at least for funzies, I would be willing to bet on that.

Right now the 200-WMA is $40,437 and it is moving up around $32 per day, and so in that regard 20% above the 200WMA is currently $48,524, so I am not sure how strong of a bet we might proclaim never going below $50k ever again might be.

Sure, it might be greater than 50/50 right at this moment, including that it might even be getting close to 60% or 65% odds or maybe even slightly higher, but I would be nervous to assign such odds and to bet with such odds assignments, but your wanting to proclaim never ever going below $50k to be close to 100% or even in the 90%, I probably would be willing to bet the other side of something like that, especially if you were to give me odds that were to be reflective of that kind of a level of certainty...

I am thing that you probably don't even believe it yourself higher than 80% odds, if we were going to actually put money on such a proposition in which you would have to lose more than you would win based on your level of confidence in order to achieve the odds that you are really saying that you believe...

I personally might be willing to bet higher than 50% odds and even close to 60% or 65% odds in regards to the price never going below $50k ever again, yet I personally probably would not be willing to go higher than 65% in my own level of confidence, and that level of confidence would even feel uncomfortable for me if there were a need to place a bet that were aligned with that level of confidence... but I would take the other side of the bet if you were to go anywhere in the 90% or higher territory, and I am imagining that you would not even actually have the balls to express your bet with such confidence, even though you are trying to act like you are inclined to proclaim 100% kinds of such a BTC price floor.

Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on October 30, 2024, 02:39:18 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 29, 2024, 04:09:39 AM

Quote from: Ryu_Ar1 on October 28, 2024, 04:22:37 PM

The percentage means making about 35 percent of the total income we make to be invested?
Even though it is a very good thing but we have to keep in mind other situations and conditions because for the initial 35 percent for DCA I think it is quite difficult to do because after all even though maybe for the first week or month it can still be done but of course this will be a little troublesome in terms of consistency because we cannot handle this large amount if our income remains at $120.
I think it's still good enough if we only allocate at least 20 percent-25 percent because it's possible we can still minimize in terms of needs but for 35 percent it could be torturing yourself even though being in bitcoin is a very good thing to do but forcing yourself because you need to remember that this takes a long time at least 4 years or even more so that with a nominal 35 percent of your income it is still very large in my opinion.

Some of these numbers are a bit screwed up and even confusing. If a person is able to consistently invest 35% of his income into bitcoin, then after only 3 years he would have had invested a whole year's worth of income into bitcoin, which truly would be a good thing if he is able to sustain himself off of that amount and it could well be the case that bitcoin might go up in value during the investment period too.

One of the issues when dealing with such seemingly small amounts would be that if a person is living off such small amounts, then might he not want to increase his standard of living down the road?
Standard of living is truly a personal determination, so it is difficult to intervene and to say how much is enough and/or how much is more than enough, though personally I get the sense that if a person is able to invest (or otherwise arrive at having at least 10 year's income into bitcoin), then it starts to become possible to start to live off the BTC as a source of income in a sustainable way as long as the valuation is using the 200-WMA and withdrawals are taking place within limits of no more than 10% per year while the BTC spot price is at least 25% higher than the 200WMA..

Indeed, in the end it will be a good thing if in the end someone can maintain consistency to make such a large investment and reduce their living needs but in the end the question that will arise is whether it can be done for a long time? Even though being in bitcoin is ultimately a very good thing but in some conditions we also have to think about ourselves and the living needs we have to do because even though I still agree with what you said that a person's standard of living is a personal determination but in other conditions we also cannot make the initial situation as aggressive as it is (by doing at 35 percent for investment in the condition of our monthly income which is only $120 according to the context of the initial example) because indeed for the worst possibility we will not be able to survive for a long time with the situation that will occur in the future where the economic level and needs are increasing.
It is important in the end that instead of forcing 35 percent from the start, it will be more worth it to do it in conditions that we can minimize like 20 percent or 25 percent, which is still quite worth it with an income of $120 per month.

It sounds way more ridiculous to me for someone with such low income to be even capable of reasonably put 35% of his income into bitcoin, unless he is living with his parents or has little to no expenses.

It makes more sense to me that perhaps someone who has $2k per month income and $500 to $1k per month of expenses, might be able to invest 35% of his income into bitcoin... .. but hey I just get bothered by using examples of incomes that are so low (especially if we are referring to aggressive BTC investment of levels higher than 25% of the income, even though I know that some of the guys participating in this thread do happen to have incomes that are only a few hundred per month... and so yeah, they still may be able to figure out ways to invest higher percentages of their income into bitcoin, but at the same time, I am thinking that something is strange that they are able to keep their expenses so low (and yeah, probably they are sharing expenses with family or something like that).

Quote from: MusaPk on October 30, 2024, 05:20:03 PM

Quote from: Samlucky O on October 29, 2024, 03:44:20 PM

... bitcoin is currently $71k and 10x of bitcoin will amount to $710k which is not possible anytime soon.

We have seen many predictions about Bitcoin going wrong in the past. For you 710k is not possible anytime soon but there are people who think that Bitcoin will hit 1M $ very soon. I remain positive about Bitcoin future price as it's evident from historical data. Yet I refrain myself from making any prediction about Bitcoin future price.
In 2017, we saw Bitcoin jumping from 1000$ in Jan to 19k in Dec, all this happen in less then a year. May be in Jan 2017 people were saying that 10x increase in Bitcoin price not possible anytime soon. And then we saw Bitcoin at 3500$ in Dec 2018.

Quote from: Samlucky O on October 29, 2024, 03:44:20 PM

So If you invest $100 and expect it to hit $1k think of when btc price will increase to $710k and above, then your $100 will hit $1k. But with that being said the most important thing in bitcoin investment is to focus on continuous accumulation provides you have your discretion readily available.

100$ to 1000$ was given as an example in context of Bitcoin security. Even if 100$ grow to 300$ or 400$, one need to revise his security measures.

Quote from: Samlucky O on October 29, 2024, 03:44:20 PM

Let's assume you invested $100 every week 5years ago, you will be able to have accumulated approximately $45k worth of bitcoin in your portfolio by now .

I follow https://dcacryptocalculator.com/ for DCA calculations and according to that site 100$ per week for last five years will give you 89.67k $ worth of Bitcoins. Don't know which one of us is correct.

That confused me too, and it appears, that Samlucky O has a mistake in his link and it is ONLY going back 4 years rather than 5.. the starting date for Samlucky O shows as 9/28/2020 instead of what it should show a starting date as of 10/30/2019... so yeah, the real amount is closer to more than 1.2 BTC accumulated rather than ONLY 0.6663 BTC accumulated.

Quote from: ginsan on October 30, 2024, 08:54:41 PM

Quote from: MusaPk on October 30, 2024, 05:20:03 PM

~~~~
I follow https://dcacryptocalculator.com/ for DCA calculations and according to that site 100$ per week for last five years will give you 89.67k $ worth of Bitcoins. Don't know which one of us is correct.

Actually, if you routinely buy $100 per week for 5 years, the total value invested is $24k. I don't know why the site adds up to $26k in total invested value for 5 years.

Previously, Mr. JJG has provided a table about the DCA strategy in 5 years, but yes, every year where the investor increases the value of his investment to levels, for example, $100 is purchased routinely every week until it reaches 1 year. And in the following year the investor increases the execution per week and so on.

Sometimes it takes accurate planning to reach a more aggressive level than the previous year. I think it's very easy to do if we get increased income in the following year.

Every year the price of btc will be different, it could be that early next year it will be $100k but our investment does not increase, of course that is a factor that must be considered early, if you are able to allocate more, of course that is better.

The 5-year period is the ideal target to apply in investing in bitcoin. We can consider many new programs in the next investment, for example, large profits will make us set a more aggressive strategy in the next 5 years with an increase in purchases that can reach $150 per week. That is the ladder to reach a wise level in dividing 10 years into two choices with more varied purchase levels.

The site is correct if it is saying that $100 per week is $26.2k over 5 years.. because you can do a ballpark estimate yourself and see that $100 per week would be $5,200 per year since there are 52 weeks in a year.

Another thing, even if we might start out at $100 per week and then increase our investment amount every years, sometimes we will have to do more calculations if we are going to either attempt to back test it or to forward test it, so we can attempt to be as particular as we like if we are using our own calculations to project out what we might plan to invest each year, including attempting to customize increases and to account for other expected variations in our income and/or expenses.

Even if we forward project out, we still could end up making mistakes and have to change our trajectory and our assumptions in order to account for changes in the facts that might allow for changes that go in either direction and perhaps sometimes in both directions.