Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 09:45:19 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 01, 2024, 01:25:07 AM

The various websites do not tend to get the number of bitcoin wrong, so they tend to be pretty close to one another, as you have shown, yet sometimes they do not calculate the BTC spot price value of your BTC holdings correctly, so sometimes it is good to manually verify.. and also sometimes we have to double check the dates, since Samlucky O's earlier version did end up having a mistake in the date, and he was saying that it was for 5 years, yet the date in the search bar and the results ended up being for 4 years rather than for 5 years.

Sometimes, the difference end up being quite great, so sometimes it is worth it to verify the results so that we might not misstate the points that we might be trying to make, whether we are engaged in historical analysis or if we might be trying to project into the future, and for sure if we are projecting into the future, we can ONLY attempt to do our best, since we don't know the actual prices in the future as we would be able to find out for the past... we also are likely to be dealing with several uncertainties in regards to our own income/expenses/discretionary income and even various factors underlying how we get to those numbers. since the facts are likely to continue to change, and sometimes in very unexpected ways... yet we still should attempt to try our best in terms of attempting to figure out most likely scenario and then various extremes on either end.. and even if we might try to prepare for both the base case scenario and the extremes at the same time, we should attempt to moderate our approach so that it becomes less and less and less likely that we end up getting reckt, even if there might be some scenarios that are more advantageous for our own situation.

These tools come handy but there is no harm in doing manual calculations to correlate the results or make sure we have 100% correct result at our disposal.
There is another tool https://hodl.camp/ that quickly gives you idea of how much profit you will earn if you HODL for a specific duration. By just moving mouse you can get details. Like I caught the following screen shot that tells if you made entry on Jan 02 2020 when Bitcoin price is $6946 and made an exit on Jan 02 2022 when bitcoin price is $47352, you HODL for 2 years and had a profit of 581% in that two years. I don't get idea about the capital with which entry was made and whether it's lump sum investment or DCA, may be you can throw some light on that.

image from : https://hodl.camp/

Sure there is a bit of a presumption of lump sum with that hodl camp chart, since each time you look at an entry date for a supposed BTC purchase, then you are able to see how that specific purchase did with the passage of time.

There likely is nothing wrong with having information about how purchases that we made on specific dates might play out with the passage of time, yet frequently, with the passage of time, we are likely going to end up with a variety of purchases with various costs and various amounts of BTC purchased, so the total quantity of BTC that we have is going to have various ways to assess how the totality might compare to the various individual parts (purchases) that might have taken place at various prices along the way.. and then what quantity of BTC did I choose to buy on the various dates.

There could be reasons that any of us might consider our BTC holdings in terms of a narrow number of purchases as compared with assessing our overall BTC portfolio costs and how many BTC that we have right now and what might be the value of the total of our BTC holdings in light of goals that we might have in regards to when we might consider starting to sell some of it.. or creating a plan in which we might sell certain amounts of our holdings based on current BTC prices (presumably selling on the way up rather than selling on the way down) or if we might choose to sell certain amounts of BTC based on time considerations.. so for example if we were to decide to start to sell 4% of our BTC holdings every year, then maybe we might consider that each quarter we might have a goal to sell 1% of our BTC holdings... yet we might not want to begin such selling of our BTC until we have first determined that we have enough BTC or more than enough BTC, and I doubt that our determination of whether we have enough or more than enough BTC would be based on merely our buying of certain slivers of our BTC stash on certain dates at various historical points.

Quote from: MusaPk on Today at 09:45:19 AM

I am combining all these tools here for future reference.

I think that we can use those tools to assess where we could have been based on certain kinds of standard purchases, and so maybe we might want to compare our actual BTC price performance to various standards, or even to tell someone else, if they had been investing into bitcoin since x, y or z date with some set amount, then they would have been able to accumulate a certain quantity of BTC by today.

Yet, our actual performance is likely more important to assess rather than hypothetical performance, and surely I personally like using an Excel spreadsheet to make my own calculations, yet if some members do not have Excel, then they can still calculate their actual amounts manually... which truly, if we look at actual performance, and then we try to anticipate where our BTC holdings might be in the future, then we can also try to project out our future expected actions and to attempt to anticipate how many BTC that we might have at various points down the road, and again I find something like excel to be more powerful than projecting out these matters on paper, even though it can be done either way.

One of the advantages of Excel is that formulas can be put in and then some of the variables can be changed and then we might be able to make comparisons fairly quickly, even though it might take a bit longer time to make some of the first charts where we might be making sure that our formulas are correct or that I calculations are correct for the various cells.. So then once we make sure our cells are correct then sometimes we can create master cells in which we might change one or two variables.. such as our anticipated BTC price appreciation rate or changes in our income (amount invested), and then we can end up being able to quickly compare different scenarios that might take quite a bit longer to calculate out on paper.

It also seems a lot easier to create a future scenario that is just continuing to add BTC, and so sure, we might have a column that shows our current balance of BTC, and then another column that shows how much dollars (or fiat) that we had put into our investment at various points in time, and so then we can see the BTC price at the various points in time to see whether our BTC holdings were in profits or in the negative at various points along the way, so then our projection of the future would still be working off the amounts that we had already achieved up until that date, which I believe is way easier to just be adding to it, yet surely some folks might consider that they are going to buy and sell BTC along the way, which would make more complicated ways of attempting to project future balances. In terms of my own attempts at projecting future balances, I prefer to start with something like the 200-WMA as my baseline valuation (which I consider to be a bottom price), and so it could be possible to project the 200-WMA to be going up 10% to 20% to 30% per year.. as a kind of lower end scenario, and then spot price could be projected from current price or it could be anticipated either more conservatively or more optimistically, and even right now there is a 70% variance between our current spot price of $69k-ish and the 200WMA (which is $40.5k-ish)