Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 12/11/2024, 00:17:29 UTC
⭐ Merited by AlcoHoDL (1) ,vapourminer (1)
I am glad to be part of the forum, and the day Bitcoin reached 80K, I made my first post on the wall observer thread.
I assume most Wall observer members who have been around for years are cheering at this moment.
The wall observer thread seems a bit different than the whole forum. It's not like I haven't seen this thread before.
I have been here before but did not write any posts. This feels like a different world.

Bitcoin finally reached 80K which was a dream for every Hodler.
Congratulations to all of you guys who have been waiting for this for a long time.

I get the sense that there are quite a few of us who largely just expect these ongoing new all times highs to happen, without their being guaranteed, they are still NOT a very big expectation in which any of us are likely getting overly excited about, except maybe there are a few points along the way that we might shave off a few coins here and there on the way up.

Yeah, sure there are some guys that are more erratic in the ways that they manage their bitcoin holdings, but still I am going to project a bit of mostly calmness from the longer term BTC holders, even though sure many times there are good feelings to experience confirmations like these.

Each time, though, there is also a bit of amazingness in regards to how momentum seems to beget more momentum and in some sense at earlier stages we might have had forgotten about the amazingness of momentum and how it can be difficult to know when it will stop, and suredly it will end up stopping once or twice and then for good while we get stuck in another consolidation period, so it is better if we have plans in advance for how much we are going to shave off at which points and still be sufficiently contented if are most upper shaving off points do not end up getting fulfilled.

I have to go through my own tweaks from time to time, including today, I had to make  some tweaks on both the upside and the downside, and surely after the 2022 falling of custodians and exchanges, I had largely been attempting to make sure that I don't keep a whole hell of a lot of bitcoin on exchanges that goes beyond my sell orders, and right now my sell orders go to $150k, yet for some reason I still have enough bitcoin there to pus sell orders up to about $250k-ish.. I am not exactly sure how that happened.. even though I have some clues in which I would rather not get too specific.

The uncomfortableness does not seem to completely go away, since it sees that every price rise there are some guys who end up having trouble getting money off exchanges, and even if we have tested out these matters, and we have several different exchanges, we can still become nervous about our interactions with exchanges, which truly justifies some appreciation when there are more possibilities to spend bitcoin in other kind of ways, which we may or may not be able to always escape KYC requirements when we are living in a world in which BIG DADDY govt wants to try to know about every single little transaction that we make, which bitcoin does allow for us to not have to report all of our transactions, yet we still have to have channels and peers in which we can actually engage in such direct transactions.

From 10 to 0.
Absolute insanity.
Still around, mindrust?

From 5 to 0 if I’m correct with WO history

I am not sure where you are getting the 5-0 historical reference.

I believe that if we are to believe the truth of the statements, with the all at once sell off, it was 10-0 (at around $4,500) - not the exact bottom, but pretty damned close.  I think that there was also a buying back of 1 coin around $6k-ish.... and yeah, after that a pretty much abandonment of this thread, and no longer wanting to account for whatever he ended up doing or saying that he was doing.

I surely don't have any problem with not accounting or being a bit loosey goosey with facts, especially for OPSec purposes, but there still was (and has been) a stubborn refusal to participate in this thread, and I am not even sure what is the solution.

I think that a lot of us get involved in these kinds of threads to share with our experiences, our ideas and even to bat around various possibilities, and hopefully we are able to learn from those things and still I don't even believe it is necessary to disclose that many personal facts - except for, with mindrust, there was a shooting for a certain amount of bitcoin with an aggressive and even an overly aggressive approach, yet the overaggressiveness went beyond limits, so each of us should try to learn our own limits, since there is also nothing wrong with being aggressive, pushing limits and even reasonably going a wee bit beyond limits from time to time.. yet since we all should want to stay in the game, then we should not want to get completely reckt.. and arguably mindrust could still proclaimed that he had not been completely reckt... since he acquired back one bitcoin, and he would be in an even better place if he had DCA'd back into bitcoin from then on out, which I believe that he said that he was going to do something like that (he also said he was going to get into some "project" which presumably was some shitcoin, perhaps Monero).

But even a DCA strategy of $100 per week from April 2020 until present would have had resulted in an additional $24k invested, which would be close to 1 more bitcoin, so if mindrust might have had been able to get a total of 2 bitcoins out of his learnings over the past couple of years with perhaps around $30k or so invested, then that would not be completely reckt, even though many of us likely realize that right now it would be way better to have 10 bitcoin or close to 10 bitcoin rather than just 2, but none of us can help anyone anymore than they have to be able to put themselves into a position to be able to help themselves with a reasonable, prudent and maybe even aggressive approach to bitcoin, but don't get so aggressive that you have to sell any of your bitcoin at a time that is anything other than your own choosing... and actually I personally believe that it likely takes many years to really accumulate a decently good position in bitcoin anyhow, and mistakes are likely to be made.  We just should not want to experience mistakes that are so large as to completely take us out of the game, and surely mindrust has a lot of unfavorable facts, even though he could have had made some kind of a partial and/or reasonable recovery.... perhaps?  Perhaps?  

One of the advantages that any of us has is to recognize, appreciate and understand that we are never completely too later to bitcoin, and even if we fucked up a whole hell of a lot already, I am pretty sure that we are still early to bitcoin and there are still a lot of normies who are just learning about bitcoin, so we are already ahead if we already know about bitcoin, and part of the trick for any of us is merely to just make sure that we don't get too greedy, and we stay in the game...and if we are not already in the game, we have to get started, and if we have been in the game for a while, we just have to keep accumulating bitcoin, don't get too smart for our own good, since selling bitcoin to accumulate more is not a good approach to accumulating bitcoin, so each of us needs to keep accumulating bitcoin until we have enough or more than enough.. and if we are not sure how much BTC is enough or more than we enough, then there are a lot of guys that are participating in this thread who would be more than willing to bat ideas around in regards to how much cornz is enough or more than enough, including that we are not necessarily going to completely agree on how to make such assessment(s).

From 5 to 0 if I’m correct with WO history
thats about what i remember too

i think he more or less broke even, give or take. but man what gainz that ~5 corns could of been.

5 BTC would have had been good too (better than 0), but right around the day before his panic sale of all of his BTC, mindrust said that he had just accumulated enough BTC to cross over passed the 10 BTC threshold.

From 5 to 0 if I’m correct with WO history
From 5 to 0 if I’m correct with WO history
thats about what i remember too

i think he more or less broke even, give or take. but man what gainz that ~5 corns could of been.
10 coins is what I remember. But if both of you say 5, it probably was 5. Anyway, 10 or 5, that's a pretty decent amount of coins to have these days. And both numbers are one syllable, so it's still a haiku too!

Don't give in to peer pressure, even if you might be wrong.  


"We" could always go back and check the post, in which he specifically said that he had just bought enough to get 10 BTC, and if he deleted that post, I am pretty sure someone would have cited that post.  Perhaps even yours truly?

the new poll should be

panic sold mindrust 5 or 10 btc

Actually i'm pretty sure it was 5 but i was thinking in dollars and now i'm thinking it was around 40-50k worth and selling around lower as 10-8K or something

tbh in dollar wise i'm not 100% anymore but still i think it was 5 btc

the person finding the post is merit worthy catch imo

Yeah but the crash in those days went to around $3,800 and he bought as it was crashing to get above 2 digits, and then he sold right around $4,500.. it was not the complete bottom, but it was close to the bottom.  So yeah he got right around $45k for his coins, and based on Masterluc theories (predictions/prognostications) he thought that the BTC price was going to be going into something like sub $1,500 or some ridiculous price, and even when the BTC price was bouncing back up and dropping back down so he could have had bought all of his coins back for at or near the price that he sold, he said that he was not buying any of them back and he might not even buy back if the BTC price dropped below $2,500.. so he was dead set on being a loser with his stubborn (and perhaps greedy) ideas... there was likely some fear mixed in there too... like fear of loss aversion, since he had been overly investing and even admitting that he was something like 45% in bitcoin, and there were several of us who said that around 10% to 15% would be good enough, but maybe if he did more, he needed to be careful, and he said that he knew that he was going overboard, but he had a lot of confidence in BTC.. and really, he may well was his worst enemy and unable to control his tendency to want to gamble or being overly confident in his taking a strong position and sticking with it...which is kind of a compulsive gambler's mentality.

It is also worth mentioning it was his SECOND time doing that as in a previous cycle he had sold it all to buy an ipad and some other shit.


Exactly.  The time leading up to March 2020, he was claiming that he was not going to make the same mistake that he had made the first time (presumptively in the 2017 price run), and so he said that he was being more responsible, and also that he was ONLY focusing on bitcoin and not getting distracted into shitcoins.

Something interesting is happening. Are we going supra-exponential here?
If the current trend would continue (at up to 20% weekly clip), it is entirely possible that the bull market would conclude this year or early 2025 vs late 2025 that most of us expect.

Oh gawd..

You have been batting that early peak in 2025 theory around for at least a whole year already, and so now all of a sudden you are trying to create the impression as if your theory is "facts driven"  .. hahahahaha

Whatever.  You are frequently good for a belly aching laugh or two.

"God Sees the Truth, But Waits".
Leo Tolstoy

Protip: for you dumb little twat eXPHorizon - I can be nice like that sometimes - When it comes to bitcoin accumulation, waiting does not tend to be a good strategy.  If you have already accumulated a decently sized stash, then waiting could end up being a good strategy in regards to managing and/or maintaining your BTC stash.



Classics remain classics
... Yet it still amaze me how every single time it happens AGAIN even if we expect it.
Isn't this exchanging cause and effect? People aren't buying because Bitcoin costs $80k, Bitcoin costs $80k because people are buying.

You are too nerdy Loyce with your "well technically."

When making these kinds of posts about "amazing" human fact stories, "we" don't really want to know reality.

Here's Mindrust crowing about reaching double digits:
Sent $5k to the exchange. Waiting it to arrive. FIAT reserves started to go low.

edit: bought from $6500
Still got $60k+ left in bank account Cheesy Cmon send it to 4k now bitchez

edit: I am in the double digits club now. Yay.
Here's his first post after selling.
I am out of my position from 4550USD.

Few moments later it went from 4000 to 4800 after I sold.

I am a nocoiner now.

Only lost $2k from my initial investment but who knows how much I lost from my future profits.

I just deleted every signature gain, every fork gain I got.
Apparently he didn't break even. At least he realized he was losing future profits.

His biggest mistake was not buying back in after it started going up again.

A lesson for all about panicking and then being stubborn.

I kind of recall that too, since when he bought more around $6,500, he was then rooting for the BTC price to go down to $4k, and I recall when I had asked him about that, he said that he was just playing reverse psychology, and sure his actions ended up showing that he really did not want the price to go down further, and yeah, I am not sure about that $60k in the bank, because that surely could have had been enough to continue to buy on the way down, even without selling any, and so then it further bolsters a speculation that he was selling to buy back lower because he thought that he had some kind of insight regarding where the BTC price was going to go..and so yeah, he is a bit full of contradictions, and I think that is part of the reason why some of us will sometimes assert that we are not completely sure if he was even telling the truth in his posts, because some aspects just don't add up very well, yet we know that extreme BTC price moves, in either direction, can contribute to a lot of emotional decision making and even some stubborn irrationalities.