Quote from: Faisal2202 on November 12, 2024, 06:41:08 PM

You are right if consider another scenario where the cycle won't repeat then not buying now can be a big mistake but to be honest do you think this scenario will take place? I don't think even if this time BTC made ATH before the halving and meme coin hype came before the ETH and ALT coin hype and things are not really following the pattern as they used to follow in the last 4 halvings. But that's a big if in my sight.

In my opinion, when ETFs come into the market and there is a possibility that the government will also enter the market, everything will change completely. That is why I put forward the scenario that the bitcoin cycle will change.

Quote from: Faisal2202 on November 12, 2024, 06:41:08 PM

We can't just rely on these ETFs but there are whales too, some whales are more than 10 year old and now they are moving their BTC just to sell them this surely won't make a big dump like in past it used to but something big will happen that will dump the market.

For me the biggest whales in the market right now are the ETFs, they have enough money to buy any amount of bitcoin the long term whales want to sell. Whales over 10 years old have made millions of percent returns on their bitcoin investments, but compared to the capital that ETFs are managing, that amount is just a drop in the ocean.

In just 5 days, they poured more than 4.2 billion dollars into the market, can any old whale do this?

Quote from: Faisal2202 on November 12, 2024, 06:41:08 PM

For the long term like if you are making an investment for next halving then buying at CMP is not a bad idea as profit will be made at last.

Honestly, we have mined over 19 million bitcoins and there are not many bitcoins left to mine. Not to mention if you look at the outflows from ETFs, they are buying many times more bitcoin than the miners are mining every week. So I'm not bullish on the halving anymore and I think the bigger catalyst in this bull run is ETFs, governments and economic impacts rather than the halving.

As you can see week: 44 ETF bought over 20kBTC while bitcoin only mined 3kBTC.

source: @HODL15Capital