Quote from: JimboToronto on Today at 04:49:12 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on November 14, 2024, 11:16:07 PM

What do you expect when the blood bath is huge?

Huge bloodbath? Back down to where it was a half a week ago?

You must be new around here.

I thought that Wiwo was referring to the bloodbath on the way up from $69k to $93k, and he was kind of suggesting that the bloodbath might be over or needing a break, which I have my doubts about whether that is really a reasonable presumption.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 05:26:51 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on November 14, 2024, 11:16:07 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on November 14, 2024, 07:06:53 PM

When Bitcoin is on a parabolic rally this place is hopping, multiple pages per hour, old-timers coming out of the woodwork.

It slows down a bit and this place is almost dead.
Grin

What do you expect when the blood bath is huge? Many will be noising their losses and also feeling dizzy about the unrealized expectations from the market, but regardless, we move no going back; this slowdown is expected, and I think we may likely have to bear with that throughout the weekend.

Well take this guy I know he is in at around 25k
Simple math. Take the case of " this guy "

He buys 1 btc at the average of 25k from Nov 2022 to fall of 2023 it became became 93k.
So Sell off .3 coins get 27k

all cap gains is negated by dumping mined coins in Oct 2022 and having a 51k loss carryover. so the entire
27k sale "this guy" keeps.

This means "this guy" has 27k cash. This guy invested 25k cash back in 2022 and " this guy" still has .7 coins
If it all zeros out 'this guy" is 2 grand ahead. So bloodbath in terms of BTC crash can't happen to "this guy"

and at the moment "this guy" has .7 coins worth about 60k along with 27k. And he had 25k in nov 2022
There won't be a blood bath for him in BTC.___________________________________________________________________________ _______
Also many on this thread have 10 or more coins (not me) at under 20k invested. Ie 20k became 930k

Some simply shaved a coin off. they now have 93k (owe tax on it) after tax they may have 60k and 9 coins

left they do not worry about a blood bath.

Even though you seem to believe that you are giving somewhat conservative selling scenarios, you do seem to continuously consider the cash that you can get out of your BTC at various points, and so surely you end up employing even more cash focused harvesting in your own ongoing BTC management strategies, and you end up missing out on loads and loads of compounding value of the BTC over the years.

In other words, way small profits can come out of the BTC in order that over several years, the value that is held in BTC compound way more as compared with if you are continuously overly harvesting various profits and claiming that you are hanging onto sufficient BTC when you aren't.

It seems to me that if guys consider ways of being way more conservative in their harvesting of dollar profits out of their BTC (perhaps even including you right now), they likely have way better odds of having way more BTC (and compounded profits) to work with later down the road after a cycle or two rather than just thinking year by year and some of the dumbass tax-focused ideas in short terms.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 06:11:02 PM

[edited out]

you have zero concept of risk magement.

the 10 to 9 coin move means zero risk of a loss and retain profit.
while 9 coins can still grow.

It also mean you can have some enjoyment of your earning.

Sometimes (or perhaps frequently in bitcoin) guys need to consider value in terms of compounding rather than simple valuations, and so sometimes with our overall BTC holdings, we have to let some time run and perhaps a halving or two or something like that rather than fucking around with one or two calendar years or trying to play short-term BTC waves.. so maybe even a guy who spends a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin might want to allow one more cycle to just sit on his investment and largely let it compound, before he starts to fuck around very much with employing various selling formulas.

I am actually not really opposed too much to selling formulas, even if they are employed fairly early on in a guy's bitcoin journey, yet the earlier days of fucking around with selling should largely be token amounts and mostly emphasizing holding overwhelmingly large portions of the BTC.. and.. then perhaps later on after another cycle or so, then maybe a guy can start to become more adventurous with selling larger portions of his BTC stash. to the extent that he even needs to.. since maybe he is able to live well within his budget (or even a much higher standard budget) by spending only 2% to 5% of his stash per year).

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

A lot depends on age and bloodbath avoidance.

If we have not over invested in bitcoin^**, then we should either be able to tolerate down draws in bitcoin or we just buy more BTC during such down draws.... quite a bit of volatility is already known and inevitable in bitcoin and there are ways to already set ourselves up in advance so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for various down draws, even extreme ones.

**By the way, over invested and over accumulating are different concepts... it is possible to overaccumulate but still not be over invested.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

which is the original post I quoted.
You are simply advocating 100% all in at risk of it all while I am advocating taking out 10% and ending the risk of no profit.

My way no matter what a profit was turned your way you simply are asking to be a victim of the blood bath
when you do not have to be.

I am happy you feel that way.

We already know that bitcoin makes BIG moves, and it just seems a bit overly anxious to be wanting to take big chunks of profits out of bitcoin merely because it made a 4x-ish move.

In the end, guys can do what they want, yet it seems to me that there is a time element to long term investing which likely involves not fucking around trying to play waves, but hey whatever guys are going to do what they are going to do.. and surely if a guy had been investing into bitcoin for 4-ish years and continuously investing, then he might have various cost basis in his BTC, and he still has 4-10 years timeline from his latest buys, so I see no reason to get all worked up about wanting to sell and/or take profits... even if a guy has just gotten through most of his accumulation stage... because in those cases, he still is going to likely have purchases that were even made in the last year or two.

And, sure whatever, guys can do what they like, yet when they are playing around trying to time waves, they likely are undermining their own situation and also taking away a lot of the historical compounding power of bitcoin that likely is not going to be ending anytime soon, even if the levels of compounding of BTC are likely not going to be as extreme as they had been in the earliest of years, yet none of us can turn back the clocks either, so we have to work with what we got and whatever bitcoin we were able to accumulate at various price levels during our BTC accumulation journey.

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

But I watched a guy hold 500,000 shit coins that cost him 1,000 dollars turn into 350,000 dollars and then fall to 30,000 dollars .

You have not learned, yet, that bitcoin is not a shitcoin? Holy shit Philip. You been here more than 12 years and you don't know nuttin?

Cheesy

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

So my response is if he shaved off 50,000 coins at 35,000 usd he could laugh when the crash happened.
And in fact purchase back the 50,000 he shaved off.

All in advocacy means you just hodl and at some point selling 1 or 5 or 10% makes some sense.
you still hodl the 90 or 95 or 99 percent you did not sell.

You are not being totally unreasonable, but there still is a time element and there is also a size element, so it seems to be me that you are tending to sell way too much too soon in small timelines.. but whatever, hopefully guys do not get overly anxious in regards to how they manage their BTC holdings whether they are still building them or maybe they are maintaining them.. and even when they get into liquidation, they should be at a state that they can just employ relatively modest withdrawal strategies and spend from their other sources of income prior to spending their bitcoin...but yeah surely bitcoin does allow for a stepping up of living standards especially if it is allowed to compound for a while.

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 06:47:15 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:29:43 PM

[edited out]

I get it, I understand risk mgmt, essentially your taking out what you put in.

I know someone who did this against my advice around $1,500 in 2017, and sure the person still had several coins and was taking profits several times and at various price points, and there surely are ways to do it and to overly withdraw and still end up with decent amounts of BTC, and bitcoin can be fairly forgiving in some of those kinds of cases, yet sometimes the overwithdrawal does end up catching up to the person.. which ended up being the case with such person that I know.. there is only so much that any of us can do to help a person from themselves.

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 06:47:15 PM

Everyone's risk profile is different tho, and they probably have different investments and sources of income and are managing those risks across lots of things. The bit that gets me tho with BTC is when you take out the initial investment your losing some of your compounding value.

Exactly. .that is another problem.. since if you followed the rule of investing no more than you can afford to lose, then why the fuck you so worried about getting your principle out?

It seems to me that there should be other ways of managing those kinds of concerns about your principle being locked up.

From my own experiences, after a while your BTC stash becomes so many magnitudes larger than your initial investment that it almost becomes like pocket change to take it out.. at some later point..

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 06:47:15 PM

BTC timeline isn't that long but say we go back to the early days until now, that 30% reduction in your compounding value of buy say in 2009 is astronomical with BTC priced in @ 85k today vs the risk of losing that 100% of your initial investment should everything go to zero.

I honestly anticipated this issue(from past investing experience), and only invested what I would be ok with losing forever. It would suck to lose it but the risk/reward is much better than the hedge play to recoup on initial investment in my circumstances.

Exactly.. when you got in and you have been buying BTC nearly like a degenerate and locking in your BTC costs, you already know that you are investing within your budget, so the mere fact that your holdings are 3x or 4x up seems like pretty dumbass inabilities to defer gratification and attempts to play the wave rather than just sticking with your original plan and letting it ride another cycle or so.

Yeah, of course people can do whatever they like and even dumb shit, and I am glad that you are not letting Philip's short term scaredness detouring you from the value of staying the course...which sure many of us get nervous and it can take a decently long time for our BTC holdings to really blossom... and it is not guaranteed to blossom either, so that is why when we were investing, we were not investing with money that we either needed or that we could not afford to lose in terms of going down to zero if that might end up happening.

Quote from: Greyhats on Today at 06:47:15 PM

I under "this guys" circumstances, risk profile etc might be different and there is justification to doing what you think is best. But seriosly did you lose the 25k?

Even though any asset can go to zero, including bitcoin, comparing what you should do in regards to shitcoins versus what you should do in regards to your bitcoin seem like quite different kinds of fundamentals and there should be some attempts to understand bitcoin fairly well for anyone who has already been in bitcoin for several years to able to figure out that bitcoin is not the same as shitcoins and the reason we invest confidently in bitcoin over long periods might relate to that we are not able to invest confidently in any shitcoins... but some folks seem to continue to mix and convolute bitcoin and shitcoin investment thesis, which truly seems to be a sign of muddled thinking.