Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 10:38:29 AM

Quote from: Biodom on November 16, 2024, 09:14:00 PM

Quote from: PremiumcryptoHub on November 16, 2024, 08:24:03 PM

The four year bitcoin cycle is dead, IMO.
This time is different:
1. Purchase of $MSTR completely new supplies
2. $MSTR copy-cats/other corporate buyers
3. State buying/establishing $BTC reserves
4. A massively pro-Bitcoin administration in the US for the next 4 years
$BTC is only going to go up from here, with some volatility.

X

Nah, it probably isn't.
Once the price overextends into the "stratosphere", it would still go down more than 50%..maybe 60 or even 70%.
If the peak would be at 135K, then it might not decline more than 50%-->67K
Alternatively, if the peak would be at around 230-320K, then maybe down 65% to 80-112K if I would be optimistic.
Still, it would be an advance to an "expected" (from prior cycles) 70% decline.
Personally, I still think that we would decline 70%, but from where would make a big difference...but something like 60-75K at the next bottom might be a realistic number, with 40.5K (coming from a "low" high of 135K) being the harshest and most tearful scenario. The latter would almost completely "kill" MSTR (if not the stock, then certainly their 42B bitcoin yield strategy).

I largely agree with your statement about no end to the 4-year cycle, but it seems my reasoning is similar even though your various scenarios come off as a bit awkward and your proclamation of the death of Saylor/MSTR strategies seems a bit doomie and gloomie.

I doubt we even need to get into specific scenarios or get all doomie and gloomie about specific scenarios, yet I think that we still could acknowledge that no matter the size or the players if the market is allowed to be somewhat free and open (which it seems bitcoin mostly is, even if there are efforts to "tame" it), and like you suggested, we are going to have times of overexuberance that takes us way beyond any kind of reasonableness and likely no one is really able to stop it and perhaps there are also instigators who work towards exacerbating such overexuberance for their own purposes of rug pulling or whatever might be the case when they might be able to get some insider knowledge regarding the level of overexuberance or their ability to play the market more when it gets into such an overextended state.

There likely are even limits to how much any player can really play the market and sometimes might even get caught on the wrong side of their own efforts in thinking that they can play or control the market, so the casualties might not always be clear or even they might end up being some of the players who were manipulating end up becoming casualties. It can be quite difficult to know how the details play out, even though it seems difficult to currently proclaim the death of the 4-year cycle prior to any real evidence of such, beyond theories of such (which we saw those theories of the death of the cycle at every previous cycle too).

Not really...all I know is that levered plays almost never work in a long run.
i will be watching it closely as you can make inordinate amounts when the lever plays collapse.
they don't even need to fully collapse, but, say, MSTR should have market cap of about a $1 bil vs $72b right now IF btc drops to 42K, wich it could if coming off of 135K peak.
MSTR could go much, much higher in the mean time, I'll grant you that.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 02:41:49 AM

We are easing off the "pedal" rn.

How do you know?
[/quote]

The proof is IN the pudding-check out the last 24-48hr: flat city...very much like a car when you stop pushing on a gas pedal, ain't it?