That is a weird way of categorizing matters.  You don't take risk out by length of your investment, yet you can mitigate risk with position size.


You seem to be talking about the asymmetric bet nature of bitcoin, since you don't lose risk merely because the time line is longer, but you could invest a small amount of money and then you don't necessarily perceive that the amount that you invested is materially affecting you, so in that case you invest such a small amount that you don't necessarily perceive it to be negatively impacting you, and then if the BTC price ends up going up over time, then you end up getting benefits from what had seemed to have had been relatively small amounts spread over long periods of time.

Time does not remove the risk, even though there is a concept of Lindy effect that applies to certain kinds of assets including technologies, which suggests that a longer that an asset/technology is in existence, the longer it is expected to stay in existence.. yet even that Lindy effect concept is not imunned to suffering some kind of a sudden loss of value based on some non-suspected development(s).


We can agree to disagree. If you are talking about less than 4 years than I would consider that to be trading.  If you are referring to 4-10 years then I would consider that short term investing, so long as you are basing your getting out of bitcoin based on age, health or some other kind of restricting timeline consideration that does not allow you to invest more than 10 years.  For the most part, over 10 years would most likely be considered as long term investing.. though surely it could be problematic for anyone to be considered an investor if the are planning to sell everything and/or to buy back cheaper, so in that sense, trading versus investing is not just based on time, but based on how the investment is going to be handled once it starts to mature.. and so in that regards investments are not sold to buy back cheaper or even not usually all at once either.. even though surely there can be variance and even justifiable reasons to get out of investments that are not even necessarily time based but instead based on perceptions of changes in fundamentals of one investment versus another..


That sounds like trading to me.


That does not sound like investment, even though you are choosing to use the word investment to describe what you (or someone else) are doing.


We can agree to disagree regarding your framing of the matter and your ways of describing these matters.


Still does not make sense, but if that kind of framing works for you, then so be it.

To me, we deal with risk in regards to position size rather than timeline, and also planning to play waves to get in and out of an assets sounds like trading rather than investing, and perhaps it does not matter about the timeline, even though presumptively less than 4 years would be trading just based on the timeline.. yet another aspect of investing is that there is not necessarily any incentive (or plan) to want to completely get out of it absent a change of the investment thesis.. so surely we might not be convicted about our investment into bitcoin in the beginning and it might take one or two cycles for us to develop a conviction to stay in it and to establish sustainable withdrawal strategies around it.. .. yet surely, new facts could end up contributing to our deciding to get out of the investment (even if we might have had investment inclinations until the strength of the investment thesis ended up changing and causing us to no longer believe in the asset as compared with other places that we might determine to put (or move or reallocate or change allocations of) our value.



We might be repeating ourselves too much in these kinds of semantics arguments, and I am not even proclaiming to be able to describe any of these kinds of trading versus matters with great precision, since there is going to be overlap in the practices, including that a person could come to bitcoin with a short term or long term time horizon, and he could plan to get in and out of a position, so then the getting in and out of a position would more likely fit into a trading category, especially if the intention is to buy back cheaper.

Investing could be long or short and with intentions to mostly be staying in bitcoin with a plan to convert from accumulation and then to maintenance and then to sustainable withdrawal on a fairly short timeline, so then I would consider those to be investment kinds of mindsets based on an intention to get into bitcoin and mostly to hang onto it, even though the employment and execution of sustainable withdrawal practices might start to come into play after a certain timeline and having had built up the size of the position (which would presumptively be enough or more than enough by the time any sustainable withdrawal strategy (price-based and/or time based) might start to be employed).



It becomes meaningless when talking about such long timelines.. let's try to stay more realistic, since concededly, it becomes more difficult to label as trading the longer the timeline, even though surely when guys are playing with large portions of their portfolio at one time, then it can start to seem like trading rather than investing.



You seem to be stating the opposite on purpose.. which is not a very genuine way of attempt to engage in serious discussions.  Investors do not tend to focus on profits, that is a trading kind of way of attempting to justify how to manage BTC positions.



That's trading not investing.



You are providing confusing examples, but let me see if I can go with it. You want to suggest that your $30k investment today turned into $530k in 4 years, and so when you cash it all out, you are investing rather than trading?  it sounds like trading to me, since you are getting in and out, and then when you sell, are you planning to keep some of that in to buy back or are you going out and buying other things?  Does any of this matter?  Are you trying to stay into bitcoin longer term or not? Are you becoming a no coiner when you cash out your $530k?  Why do you want to cash out?  Are you suggesting that BTC's investment thesis is weaker at that time?  or are you suggesting that bitcoin is in a period of overexuberance and you are playing the wave to either buy back lower and/or to invest into other things and/or to do engage in some consumption?

What we call it might be based on what you want to do with it, yet it is not automatically justifiable to take the value out of bitcoin merely because you are booking $500k profits (or 17.7x returns).



I am not saying that completely, even though you can figure out sustainable withdrawal strategies that are based on price and/or time, and you can figure out how you are to deal with your $530k in bitcoin value rather than selling all of it to do what?  Sure maybe you could sell some of it for various purposes along the way, yet you may well not need to (or even get much value from selling all of it at one time), so your having that value should help to inform you in regards to what you want to do and how you want to deal with the situation of having had achieved a 17.7x price appreciation, and a value attainment that may or may not be sustainable in itself on the short-term...

Yet one of the dynamics that any of us bitcoiners should be considering is that we are in the midst of one of the greatest, if not the greatest transferences of wealth in history from no coiners to coiners, and do we want to be on the side of the coiners (who are receiving the wealth transfer) or do we want to be on the side of the low coiners/no coiners because we ended up selling too many coins too soon.  Sure, you might believe that you are smarter than everyone else when you sell too much too soon.. and maybe you will even be correct for a while, yet it surely can be problematic if you are selling to buy back lower and you end up fucking up the size of your BTC stash because you did not hardly have enough in the first place and you would have had been better off to just keep stacking for another cycle before getting overly anxious about selling or trying to sell to buy back cheaper.. .. and sure in the end you can do whatever you like since you are going to be the one who suffers the consequences of whatever you choose to do.



I don't claim to know all of the answers, and I doubt that your description is more beneficial.. especially when you talk about being in bitcoin less than 3 years and then you are planning to sell at $100k and buy back at $30k and you think that should be considered investing (or short-term investing). You seem to be the one with confusing and seemingly convoluted ways of framing these kinds of trading versus investing ideas.



I already went over this, and guys are free to consider some of my ways of trying to discuss these trading versus investing matters or they can consider if there might be better ways to consider these matters. It is not always going to be clear because some folks might come into bitcoin with certain timelines in mind, but their ideas might change as they build their bitcoin portfolio, and they might convert from trader to investor or from investor to trader.. .and even their timelines might change or their ideas about the strength of bitcoin's investment thesis might change.  It is best if they can figure out some of these parameters for themselves including that we are not always going to agree how to go about either building our BTC investment or circumstances that might motivate us to change our practices, including if we might have varying ideas about when to get out partially or in full, so each person has to also account for his own financial and psychological circumstances that might include considering if during his investment period (of 3 years or whatever) if he had been learning enough about bitcoin in order to decide to sell or if some other strategy might be better.  We won't necessarily agree and surely some bitcoin accumulators are going to do better than others based on how they choose to accumulate bitcoin, and if they choose to tweak their strategies including if they might start to include selling into their way of wanting to accumulate bitcoin, if that is where they consider themselves to be, and surely there can be differences of opinions about whether to sell all BTC or some of the BTC and there will be winners and losers in regards to BTC management (and maintenance) choices that guys choose to employ in their bitcoin journey.



I can say what I think is better, yet sure, you are correct that each person has to figure out for himself in terms of his various individual factors.



We cannot really know exactly what guys are doing, even though some will try to describe what they are doing, and surely some guys will be doing things differently than what they say, and surely there are always going to be instances of guys making mistakes and they may or may not disclose their mistakes.  Sometimes I talk about some of my mistakes, and sometimes I don't say everything that I do because some of what I do might not be exactly relevant to the conversation, yet also sometimes there might be personal reasons to do certain things and maybe even while some things are done on the fly, they might be confusing to describe until after some time has passed by...so sometimes I might not say what I am done or what I did until several months later, when it seems to be relevant to some discussion point...

Sometimes what I did might be a mistake or it might be a brilliant move or it might be something that I learn from or it might be something that ends up showing a strength or weakness that I might have. Sometimes, there might be reasons to not say anything based on OPsec considerations, so sometimes it might take some time to figure out how to describe something that happened or how the BTC portfolio was handled under certain conditions without necessarily giving away too many OPSec kinds of information pieces.


I think that I said enough already, and those guys have their own ideas, and sure sometimes we agree on the way that these ideas are framed and sometimes we don't, and I even doubt that they are just following what I say, since frequently, they will come up with their own ways of saying things, which I might or might not agree with any of them.  It is not like we have some kind of consensus on all of these matters, even if there seems to be agreement about some of the better practices, and any one of us might end up saying something that is not very correct or we say it in a way that is misleading, so surely there can be learning from each other, yet at the same time, it can be problematic for anyone to merely agree based on another member (such as me) saying it, since they have to figure out their own ways of saying it and perhaps figuring out for themselves if the practice is good or not, and if it fits with their circumstances, since if they end up fucking up, they are not going to be saved merely because they thought that they were following best practices, and it ends up being wrong.  Each of us is responsible for ourselves, and if we listen or blindly follow someone on the interwebs, then we only have ourselves to blame. .whether we are considering cashflow management practices, BTC position size and/or when and how or if to diversify into other assets, including how to think about (and describe) shitcoins and/or trading versus investment.


We might be getting too much into semantical arguments and just repeating ourselves without really getting anywhere.