Quote from: Xcode7 on Today at 09:22:18 AM

Quote from: Fara Chan on Today at 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: sotelorene on November 23, 2024, 11:52:22 PM

Off cause $100k is not the main goal, it's just a new ATH and people were just anticipating to see it hit that amount and this great progress has really moved some people and even drag more attention to Bitcoin. Anyone who understands the potential of Bitcoin and has a big target won't make a mistake of selling there Bitcoin rather they will keep on accumulating and holding because it's really going to take anyone who sells his or her Bitcoin time to accumulate that same amount

What you said is very true because now it is very difficult to accumulate Bitcoin in the amount that we have previously owned or in the amount that we have sold in the past. But for those who have a long-term target in Bitcoin, of course the current price is not a barrier for people who have such a mindset to continue buying and holding it. Because they actually already understand that if Bitcoin can reach $100K in the near future, of course there is a possibility for Bitcoin to be at a much higher price level in the next year because it will also increase the attention of many parties to Bitcoin. And for now I still think that the potential for Bitcoin to continue to increase its price is still a lot, especially in the next year.

But it must also be realized that there are also risks, especially if you want to enter at a high price, you may have to wait a long time to get profit, it is true that it is for the long term but not always people will be patient when they see the investment they choose the price continues to decline.

Personally I assume that the increase in the price of Bitcoin in Bullrun this time exceeds 100k, just look at what is happening now and if we refer to what happened in the past, the peak of the bullrun should be early 2025 which means there will be a bigger spike than 100k.

I hate to repeat the contents of a post that I just made, so I will quote it, since it seems to be quite responsive to the kinds of newbie and/or hesitancies of newbies, even if they may well knowt that they are underaccumulated in their BTC stash size.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 07:08:31 PM

Quote from: LUCKMCFLY on Today at 02:25:35 PM

I think this close of 2024 with the beginning of 2025 will be something impressive for BTC, it is what many of us have been waiting for, without a doubt those who have BTC will become much more millionaires and that is something that I like, it is Something good and also for those of us who have little fraction in BTC that we have not yet reached to have one , it will be encouraging to see that despite so much that has happened it has been and will be worth it, for now I think the price can easily reach $ 300k and some may say that it is crazy, but who would have imagined that the price would be almost $ 100k, how much did you imagine in 2009? or in 2014? 2020? very few , so everything is possible.

Similar to past cycles, there seem to be quite a few newbies getting overly excited about $100k, and considering BTC to be exuberantly priced at such levels, so in that sense BTC newbies have similarities to no coiners and even to low coiners, including that an overwhelming majority of newbies are ultimately low coiners, but they don't even realize it and understand such matters, since many are not understanding bitcoin either.. so there is a tendency to either sell some or all of what little bitcoin that they already have or there is a tendency to slow down or stop in their BTC accumulation, which either their various tactics are not really going to help them while rich folks, institutions and governments are becoming aware of bitcoin and getting their own BTC stashes, in some cases in quite extreme kinds of ways, and not even doing so covertly in the case of MSTR.

Hopefully guys realize that if they have not established their own bitcoin stash in such a way that they either have enough or more than enough, that they should be continuing to stack BTC fairly aggressively, so yeah whatever BTC may or may not reach $300k this cycle, but $300k still should be considered as a big SO FUCKING WHAT? if guys are barely stacking bitcoin or if their average cost per BTC are still in the $30k to $50k price range.

We are likely not going to be slowing down in ongoingly witnessing these kinds of errors from folks who have some BTC and become somewhat complacent since probably even if they realize that they have not reached anywhere close to overaccumulation status they are ongoingly failing/refusing to work towards getting to such personal stash-size status. Whimpiness has paid off in the past, and sure it may still pay off in the future, yet potentially not as exponentially as it historically has done.. even though bitcoin still does remain to likely be the best of places to invest, the exponential nature of its growth curve is slowly becoming less and less steep.

So with you, LUCKMCFLY, you have been on the forum for more than 7 years.... hopefully you are continuing to work towards overaccumulation status in your BTC holdings in the event that you have not yet reached such status and/or if you might be too distracted by shitcoins (hahahahaha.. .sorry (not sorry) to go there... some of my good friends are shitcoiners.. and sometimes difficult to help someone to save themself from themself)..

Now you, Xcode7, have been registered on the forum since early 2017, so potentially you have had some abilities to either stack a large enough BTC stack or to reach overaccumulation status, yet based on the contents of your post, I am getting the sense that might not sufficiently understand and/or appreciate bitcoin's actual price dynamics and/or how normies and/or newbies should be dealing with their BTC stash, whether they are in their accumulation stage or not, and surely I am not going to just presume very many guys (even seemingly bitcoin experienced ones here) have actually reached a status of either sufficient BTC accumulation or overaccumulation status.

Your points about peaking over $100k and peaking in early 2025 are both lame, even though surely both of them are likely to have some potential of truth.. yet come off as a bit misleading and presumptuous.. presuming you are not intentionally stating overly bearish expectations... or sure, it could be possible that you really believe what you are saying, so I don't want to be too harsh on you, since some folks are just overly conservative in their perspectives, and nothing really wrong about that except maybe the issue of proposing such scenarios as if they were reasonable base cases for BTC, as if you might be new here, when apparently from your forum registration date you are not new here.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 12:49:53 PM

Quote from: Xcode7 on Today at 09:22:18 AM

[edited out]

The best risk management in Bitcoin investment is involving one's self in long term hodling, we all know that Bitcoin is highly volatile in nature and predicting what will happen in a short period is very difficult and investing your money on Bitcoin in a short term basis is highly risky and should be avoided.

Holy shit.. I think that I am now starting to see why so many guys in this thread (and perhaps other similar threads) are associating long term BTC investment with reduction of risk.

Traditional market analysis equates volatility and risk, so guys seem to be doing the same thing, and that framework is not correct. So maybe we should try to speak more clearly in regards to what we are talking about, since surely long term will take out the volatility risk, but volatility is not the ONLY kind of risk. There are risks of BTC holdings going to zero and/or failing to go up and other kind of risks that would contribute to downside risks.

So yeah, now I am beginning to recognize why so many guys are seeming to ongoingly and erroneously make such connection that the longer the investment timeline, the the less risk, which is mostly just true if you are ONLY focusing on volatility as a risk.

This is muddy since there are so many other ideas, in regards to cashflow management and position size that help to alleviate risk concerns, so that guys should be attempting to assess their level of aggressiveness in their BTC investment based on their understanding their discretionary income levels.

Your other point about long term HODLing.. also seems problematic.. since there are not that many newbie normies who are really able to lump sum invest into bitcoin or even if they focus a short time 6-12 months DCAing into bitcoin to establish their BTC position, there shouldn't really be any reasonable justification that they should just stop accumulating, and sure you might be attempt to stop guys from selling, so HODLing is a step better than selling, yet it still likely is not as good as continuing to buy...especially for newbies going through their first whole BTC cycle.

So yeah another error seems to be that newbies convert into overly whimpy and don't actually continue to attempt to somewhat aggressively accumulate BTC through a whole cycle.. .. they get distracted by the UPpity to stop accumulating and they wrongly conclude that they are engaging in a good practice because at least they are HODLing and they are not selling.. yet in the end they still end up being overly whimpily allocated to BTC... and so they end up not coming even close to the levels of benefiting from BTC as they could have had come if they had figured out ways to stop being so whimpy...but hey whatever, these are individual choices, and each of us has to decide and live with whatever consequences that end up coming from whatever approach we choose to take in regards to our BTC accumulation tactics.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 12:49:53 PM

Now engaging in long term hodling reduce risk of lost because no matter how volatile Bitcoin is it is still growing bigger in price but it only takes time that means if you are patient to wait while hodling you won't suffer much lose because by choosing long term hodling you have reduced risk of lost.

Why not keep buying BTC SuperBitMan? Have you stopped buying? you have ONLY been in BTC for about 4-ish months, so it is difficult to imagine why you should have had already stopped buying, if that might be the case.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 12:49:53 PM

If I hear short term hodling all that comes to my mind is trading if you still involve in trading because of lack of patience then get ready to keep losing your money, if we make analysis of people who has made it very big today in Bitcoin investment you will mind out majority are long term hodler just imagine those who has been accumulating consistently and holding since 2012 or 2013 till date, like they always say patience is virtue.

Depends on which year anyone might have started accumulating, since it seems that anyone continuing to accumulate BTC would have had been able to stop at a certain point if it goes back that far, yet sure frequently mistakes are made along the way too.. so we cannot presume that mistakes were not made.

Part of the reason that I frequently likely to use 4 years as a discussion point is that it seems to be more realistic. instead of fantasizing about getting into bitcoin more than 10 years ago, which truly seems more and more ridiculous when thinking about it so much.. but anyhow, 4 years is more realistic as a kind of thinking framework, and even someone fairly aggressively accumulating bitcoin for 4-6 years might still have had not quite reached a sufficiently sized BTC stash in order to feel that he has reached overaccumulation status... but still we can still imagine varying scenarios, including scenarios in which some of the guys had been able to front load their BTC investment.. even though most people are likely going to need to rely on DCA since many folks do not necessarily have a lot of money to draw from, even though maybe once in a while they might be able to earn or to receive higher levels of income that they might be alble to lump sum invest into bitcoin.

Quote from: SuperBitMan on Today at 12:49:53 PM

Every one can be patience in Bitcoin investment just invest using discretionary income, have a good source of income and have a backup funds all this will help you hold for long without dipping hands into your Bitcoin investment.

That is true. Everyone is capable of either doing these kinds of things or aiming to do these kinds of things in order to be able to more aggressively continue to be able to accumulate BTC.. so hopefully no one gets discouraged from doing those kinds of things merely because the BTC price is going up quite a bit, especially in recent times.