[edited out]
I think we have a Name that Tune situation here, where I want to bet, but on the same side as you. So I will wager 0.0015 btc against your 0.0010 btc that "BTC trade-weighted prices stay in the top 100 for the remainder of 2024".
One thing is assigning bet size and another thing is assigning probabilities in order to arrive at your wanting to communicate that you are more bullish (or more confident) than me.
I would rather see someone taking the other side of some kind of bet, whether it is the staying in the top 100 for the rest of 2024 or maybe if there were some further proclamation regarding how long we might stay in the top 100.
For example, someone who might be willing to proclaim that BTC prices will never drop below $70k again might also be willing to take a bet that the trade-weighted average will not drop out of the top 100 prior to February 2025. I would not be willing to take that bet... or even to bet either side of such a proposed bet, unless there were maybe a bit more spike contained therein.