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Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 29, 2024, 03:32:07 AM

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[edited out]

I think we have a Name that Tune situation here, where I want to bet, but on the same side as you. So I will wager 0.0015 btc against your 0.0010 btc that "BTC trade-weighted prices stay in the top 100 for the remainder of 2024".

One thing is assigning bet size and another thing is assigning probabilities in order to arrive at your wanting to communicate that you are more bullish (or more confident) than me.

I would rather see someone taking the other side of some kind of bet, whether it is the staying in the top 100 for the rest of 2024 or maybe if there were some further proclamation regarding how long we might stay in the top 100.

For example, someone who might be willing to proclaim that BTC prices will never drop below $70k again might also be willing to take a bet that the trade-weighted average will not drop out of the top 100 prior to February 2025. I would not be willing to take that bet... or even to bet either side of such a proposed bet, unless there were maybe a bit more spike contained therein.

I was just trying to make things interesting, and now I've chickened out. So we can drop it.

Any one else is free to stake a proposed wager.

Even though I will frequently state something as bettable, I will tend to ONLY take bets that are somewhat interesting propositions, such as my earlier propositions that the BTC price would stay at least 20% above the 200-WMA until the end of 2025, or that the ATH in 2025 will be higher than the ATH in 2024. Sometimes people make pretty extreme assertions, so those would end up being bettable, or it might end up resulting in decently good odds on one side or another.. that might contribute to the bet being difficult to refuse. Coming to an agreement would be another story, especially when it comes to guys who make outrageous claims, if they don't waffle on the bet, then they will state some other unacceptable term, such as bet size.. which I don't tend to want to make large bets, even though in recent times, a 0.01 BTC bet is starting to seem like a lot.

I don't bet I hope I lose less.

in the case of you the 0.0105

In this address

https://btc2.trezor.io/address/3Mw9mvjTjWtpxhmctdLa5Awj5gGUbSChKV

is now 1009 usd up from 291 usd.

but I need to live till 105 ie jan 2062 to give it away.

Its worth hoping for.

It is far enough in the future that it could be more than 1 million bucks.