Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 30, 2024, 05:08:46 PM

Quote from: MissNonFall9 on November 30, 2024, 07:21:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 29, 2024, 06:16:49 AM

[edited out]

You are absolutely right that my investment will depend on me whether I invest or not or where I invest. But since I have little investment experience or knowledge of Bitcoin and digital currencies, that is why I am asking so much about investment. I really believe that I can explore the right knowledge and principles on this board and there are many wise people on this board including you from whom I can find the right advice because as I have already said that my experience or knowledge is very little.
And I believe in your words with all my heart that my own enthusiasm will be more effective and reliable than the enthusiasm of others to do anything in this world. But for that I have to gain knowledge myself first, and only then can I make the right decision myself. That is why I have approached you so that I can follow your experience and move forward.
I thought that I would get a good profit from Bitcoin investment after one or two years. But in the light of your kind opinions and experience, I now see that I was completely wrong. I have to plan my investment for a longer period.
Now I can reorganize my plan and get out of a serious situation. This is my biggest achievement.

In your earlier post, you had stated that you had already started buying bitcoin, so just continue to buy bitcoin and to learn about it as you go, yet the main thing to learn is your own cashflow management, and to make sure that you are investing from your discretionary income, which is the money that you have available that you can spend that you do not need for your expenses or even that you are going to want for other later reasons.. so it would be money that you are just continuing to put on the side for 4-10 years or longer, and if you are young, then the investment timeline would likely be 15-20 years or more.

Of course, you are free to do whatever you like and you can choose to trade bitcoin rather than invest it, so if the BTC price goes up by 50% or to double or triple, then you cash out some of your investment into bitcoin, yet that would not really be investing, and you would likely be selling one of the best, if not the best of assets, so it would be a problem that you had spent time accumulating so much of such a good asset like bitcoin and end up spending all of it or trying to sell it higher and to buy back cheaper, which may or may not work out for you as compared to a practice of just keeping on buying bitcoin until you are later able to start to draw upon it, which again seems something that you may well want to let your bitcoin investment ride for quite a few years rather than withdrawing it before the bitcoin had chances to compound its value upon itself several times.

There are no guarantees with any investment, so there is a need to figure out how much you are going to invest, yet since bitcoin is an asymmetrical bet to the upside it is also quite possible that you are able to invest over the years and to end up compounding your value since the most you can lose is 100% of your investment, but there are also quite a few decently upside potentials in bitcoin to continue to grow as it has in the past, even if the slope of the upside curve might not be as steep as it had been historically.

So whether you keep adding to your bitcoin stash is your choice ($100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that you consider reasonable/feasible/prudent), and your figuring out your personal factors is probably a good idea, but it is also your choice regarding how much you attempt to plan ahead in regards to your cashflow including your income versus your expenses versus how much you are putting into bitcoin. It can take a while to figure out your personal factors and then to balance them out and they are a moving target too, since it is quite likely that your income and expenses are changing with the passage of time, and maybe you also have expenses of working on building skills and increasing your employment and income opportunities (such as going to school/university), and so anyone thinking that they are going to substitute their short-to-medium term income with bitcoin appreciation income is likely thinking wrongly about bitcoin since in many cases it takes years and years and years before you are likely to get your BTC stash to a high enough level where you can start to live off of it or to supplement your other income with it.

Historically, aggressive bitcoin investors might have had been able to build their BTC stack within a cycle or two, yet these days it may well take longer than a cycle or two to get your BTC stack to a high enough level that it could sustainably support your expenses or to sufficiently supplement your expenses where it would start to make sense to transition from your BTC accumulation stages and into your BTC withdrawal stages. It makes no sense to sell any BTC until you have reached your BTC withdrawal stages, and only you can figure out those stages, and if you fuck it up no one is going to bail you out. You are responsible for your own fuck ups, including if you treat bitcoin as a trade rather than an investment. Those are your choices, completely.

In traditional financial planning, you would usually need to get to about 25 years of your income/expenses to be able to sustain yourself from your investment at a 4% withdrawal rate. I personally believe that bitcoin allows you to sustainably withdraw at a 10% withdrawal rate which would mean that you ONLY need 10 years of your income/expenses, yet I am also using the 200-weekly moving average as the way to measure the value of your BTC stash and various other withdrawal constraints, especially if you might be in your earlier years of just meeting the minimum thresholds in which your valuation of your BTC holdings appears to be enough...since there can always be dangers in attempting to withdraw too much too quickly and there after depleting your BTC stash at a rate faster than it is growing, which would no longer be sustainable and would defeat the purposes of anyone who prematurely thought that he reached fuck you status but he either misvaluated his BTC stash or he was too aggressive in his attempted employment of what he thought would be sustainable withdrawal practices. I discuss price based and time based sustainable withdrawal strategies in one of my threads, yet my presumption for anyone attempting to employ those strategies is to reach a status of over accumulation of BTC prior to employment of either of the strategies. I consider them as not being trading strategies, even though so many folks love to trade/gamble, and so sometimes it is difficult to save folks from themselves, since in the end people can do what they like and they are responsible for the consequences of their own actions, good and bad.

Yes, I have already invested some amount, and your advice is very important to me when I change my investment plan in Bitcoin based on your opinion. And I never thought that you would give me so many words of advice. Anyway, I feel like I am one of the lucky ones (I am not exaggerating). I believe that one day I will be able to do something good and seek the right knowledge. And trading is not my favorite subject. So I have no desire or aspiration to move towards trading because it seems more dangerous to me.