Quote from: Lucius on December 02, 2024, 12:54:07 PM

I think it is very likely that all phases will repeat themselves as they always do, regardless of how many people get involved in BTC in one way or another in the current bull run.

While I agree with what you wrote, I wasn't referring to the current cycle but to a "major" long term cycle.

Despite of the harsh 75%+ bear markets, the general tendency in the last 15 years has been bullish. This can continue 1-2 decades more, or maybe less than a decade, but the interesting question is what will happen when this long term bullish trend comes to an end. We're already seeing that the volatility to the upside was lower in each of the 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021 bulls. If this pattern continues, and this is quite likely, then we will eventually hit a ceiling difficult to overcome for seveal years after.

But would that make Bitcoin a bad investment if you invested near this ceiling? That's the big question, and I was referring to that point. If the short term profit investment pattern continues, then it is likely that indeed those who invested near the top will lose, and the bear market will be deeper than before if there are indicators hinting that the ceiling was reached. For example, one of these indicators could be that the USD exchange volume at the top of the bull market was only as high as in the preceding bull run, or even lower, indicating less buyer interest.

The optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin is not longer used as a short term speculation vehicle in this scenario but for longer term saving and for value transfers. Basically what Boyapati meant when he wrote "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin". In this scenario the price near the "long term top" could be probably relatively stable, so even those who invested late won't see major losses.