~snip~
Yep, that is why instinct will be our guide when we are confused with the choice because I hear something say that I should pick the one. But sometimes the instinct is not real instinct but that is our minds that pick the choice for us which lead us getting lose. When you use your instinct, that will be 50-50 but we have more chance to win as that can be a real sign for us to choose the right one. Ah, I can not explain it better but I feel it with right when I am in that situation. I guess you also feels the same as me.
Haha in the end truth and success can be obtained when there is luck and instinct can not work well at all, so far I have never known or seen someone who can get series of consecutive wins just because they have sharp instincts.
Everything can be success also cannot be separated from luck and knowledge or accuracy in analyzing to predict, instinct becomes kind of suggestion that may indeed influence person mind in certain conditions.