Quote from: justdimin on Today at 07:29:20 PM

How do you know it will come to an end? Maybe it will end up being smaller in the future, but that means the bear runs needs to be smaller as well.

This is definitely a possibility. But for me it will depend on the dominant investment paradigm.

The 2021 ATH was a x3 of the previous ATH in 2017, while 2017 was a x15 of the 2013 high. Let's assume the next bull run achieves "only" a x2 compared to the previous ATH (i.e. around $140.000), the second next is a x1.5, and then a x1.2.

If this series continues, investment patterns would have to change for the "speculation model" still work. People would either have to buy in bear markets and crypto winters to get a reasonable return (and if too many do this, then the returns will be smaller). Or alternatively they will have to accept that they won't get rich with a simple Bitcoin investment, but see Bitcoin only as something like an alternative to a bond or a savings account.

In short: The speculation on high returns, which is now the overwhelmingly dominant pattern amoung Bitcoin investors, will have to change to a pattern where Bitcoin is seen as a safe investment but with relatively modest returns. If an ATH is only 1.5x of the previous one, then with good trading and reckless buying in the deepest bear market you may achieve doubling your investment, but not much more.

We can have, of course, a super bull run eventually, for example if Central Banks begin to invest massively, like some are speculating now at this moment with Trump promising a strategic reserve. But that would only push the "problem" one cycle into the future.

The interesting question for me is if this will work. In my opinion, it can, but Central Banks and businesses using BTC as a "strategic reserve" are not enough because they can only probably influence the amplitude of the gains in one or two cycles (i.e. less than 10 years). If we want Bitcoin not to deflate afterwards, it has also to be used for value transfers. The reason is to give investors the safety that there is no bubble that can burst, there is a real adoption taking place.