Quote from: graphite on Today at 12:03:56 AM

I agree bitcoin seems to have become a ponzi scheme. Majority of people I meet in bitcoin view it as a get rich quick scheme.

Thanks for your interesting contribution. I'm a bit more optimistic than you, and I don't believe Bitcoin has already become a Ponzi scheme. As of now, I think it is as much a Ponzi as Apple or Nvidia: it is probably overvalued due to get-quick-rich speculation, if we compare the current price of $100.000 to the current adoption for non-speculative reasons (currency, long term savings, remittances etc.), but it has still a big potential for adoption so if we take into account possible future usage, it's perhaps indeed not overvalued at this point.

That features like Taproot, which improves privacy (despite that aspect not being liked by most governments), got added to the code relatively recently, and the development of interesting solutions like BitVM is an indication that the ecosystem surrounding Bitcoin is still healthy. But there are clouds on the horizon already.

Quote from: graphite on Today at 12:03:56 AM

Bitcoin makes more sense for countries and people that don't have a stable store of value but the vast majority of all bitcoin holders are from developed countries where they have alternative store of value assets like gold, real-estate, and stocks. The moment bitcoin stops out performing the S&P500 everyone will sell out.

I agree here mostly, although in countries like Argentina and Nigeria Bitcoin is also quite popular -- I think many people hold some BTC or altcoins there but relatively low amounts. About a possible selloff, I agree that it's likely that we'll see crashes like in 2018 and 2022 also after this next bubble pops. My hope is however that the selloff could be a little bit less pronounced, perhaps only 50 or 60 % instead of more than 75%, due to more "dip buyers".

Regarding Saylor: he has a business model that works for him, so his behaviour is in my opinion not cultish but predictable. He simply communicates in a way his company benefits most. But that doesn't make him a credible Bitcoin supporter.

Quote from: graphite on Today at 12:03:56 AM

I don't believe any large countries/central banks will have a strategic reserve. Maybe a small reserve but not a large amount.

This is also my take on the issue. Some big countries could hodl a few hundred thousands, in the order of magnitude of the coins that were already seized from Silk Road etc., perhaps a bit more. It's also better in my opinion of central banks and nation-states don't hold too many Bitcoins, otherwise they would get too much power in the case of another fork upgrade (like in the 2017 Segwit dispute).

Quote from: graphite on Today at 12:03:56 AM

If for example USA did have a reserve but then world war 3 breaks out. China has plenty of resources to building enough miners and get enough energy to cripple bitcoins network. making the USA bitcoin useless.

In this scenario I'd expect US and its allies to build up mining potential too. However, you're correct that an 51% strategy would still be easier than an attack to Fort Knox. WW3 is also imo a very unlikely scenario, but that's OT here