Quote from: fillippone on December 11, 2024, 10:40:59 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 11, 2024, 09:48:54 PM

Quote from: fillippone on December 11, 2024, 08:19:57 PM

The only way you can interpret the MSTR price is through the following graph:

Sorry, this graph hasn't been added to the spreadsheet yet.

This graph shows the number of satoshi held in a single Microstrategy share. It's clear that this number has been constantly growing over the last few years and accelerated after the announcement of Plan 42.

Saylor has steadily increased the number of Satoshi per share over the last few years, returning the investor to a positive BTC yield.
An ETF would instead deliver a negative BTC yield, as the ETF would gradually reduce your shares per share because of the fees to be paid.
If you get a 40% yearly yield, like this year, you can justify a premium of 2.25 with roughly 3.2 years of such a positive BTC yield!

I am not sure if I understand the graph and even the difference between the blue and red lines. I understand your point about a fee from an ETF causing the yield to go down. more than holding MSTR shares.

Also, how come the graph starts January 2023 rather than starting when MSTR started buying bitcoin, which would be August 2021. Is the information being selective? I understand performance might not be consistent since more aggressiveness has come out of the strategy in recent times, and also more creativeness in the kinds of financial tools that were being used, including that with Saylor's reputation growing, MSTR has become a bit of a magnet for certain kinds of investors.

Answering all your questions:

The graph is mine, based on my elaboration on some quasi-private data, and thus, I am not sure I can (yet) share it unless I can protect my source. For the moment, I was hoping you could take it as an image and trust me a little bit.
The Blue Line (left-hand axis)is the "ratio". The ratio is the total Value Enterprise of MicroStrategy (Equity+ Debt (fully diluted)- cash) divided by the Bitcoin Stash valuation. A ratio of two means that MicroStrategy is valued 2 times the Bitcoins they own.
The Red Line (right-hand axis) represents the number of Satoshi per equity shares (fully diluted).
I decided to start the graph from 2023 to zoom in on the recent developments. And also, the graph in the initial phases was too errand. I can eventually post the "long version" of the graph.

I think that it is a bit less unclear, at least what the lines are meant to signify, and I was just a bit confused by some of it.. Thanks.

I don't have any problem with the idea that you might be taking from some various sources that you aren't able to disclose, so I would not consider that you would be purposefully attempting to mislead, yet any of us could make mistakes in terms of interpreting data, or how we might put the data together or even drawing wrong conclusions from any data that we might put together.

I would not presume that you would do any of that on purpose.. except remember the trade that you were considering as a good one? something like shorting MSTR... and going long on GBTC... sure there might have been some aspects of that that might have had worked out, if I am remembering correctly... .. but yeah, I don't trade or buy any of these stocks/ETFs anyhow .. even though surely there may be needs to try to keep track of some of these matters since they are popular in the space, and even some normies that I meet in the real world have gotten involved in various bitcoin related stocks and ETFs, and frequently they are just trying to get BTC price exposure, and trying to play various price waves.

A lot of times, I attempt to recommend not to buy secondary products and to buy bitcoin directly, even though surely we know that some folks have some difficulties getting their heads around how to buy bitcoin directly versus some kind of already existing account(s) that they might have that offer such BTC -related product options.