Quote from: delfastTions on Today at 10:29:07 AM

Quote from: Mahdirakib on December 11, 2024, 02:43:13 PM

Quote from: futuur on December 09, 2024, 05:09:40 PM

We've launched a new prediction market: Will BTC reach $150k by 2025? What's your take?
Market Link

Everything will depend on some facts, but the chance is low for Bitcoin to reach above $150k in 2025. Some decisions of Donald Trump's government will have good impact on Bitcoin price within next few months. I will go for 'no' on this betting market. Currently, this is a promising market at Futuur: Bitcoin's market cap at the end of 2024. 95% bets are on '1.6 trillion USD or more'.

Well, of course, 95% of players believe that Bitcoin's capitalization will not fall below $1.6 trillion.
This limit corresponds to the Bitcoin price of about $80K. So in my opinion, taking into account the history of Bitcoin's volatility, a decrease in the Bitcoin price below this price is more likely than the players' opinion. It seems to me that this should be more than 5%, as in this dispute now.
But apparently, public opinion on this issue is still in the zone of ultra-optimism.
Maybe this is good, but it is still not worth getting too excited and being in euphoria from the bull rally and, in general, from the possibilities of Bitcoin.

If you believe the BTC market cap could end 2024 lower than $1.6 trillion, you should bet; the odds are great! For example, if you bet $10, you would win $206.
Market link