Quote from: imjeybi1208 on Today at 03:42:54 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 13, 2024, 04:17:33 AM

Quote from: fillippone on December 12, 2024, 12:45:29 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on December 12, 2024, 03:37:28 AM

I would not presume that you would do any of that on purpose.. except remember the trade that you were considering as a good one? something like shorting MSTR... and going long on GBTC... sure there might have been some aspects of that that might have had worked out, if I am remembering correctly... ..

I was horribly wrong on that trade, and the blue line is a testimony of that.
According to my understanding prior to the ETF launch, the blue line should have collapsed to 1, as the ETF would have been a far superior way to track BTC.
The reality is that Micheal Saylor was very good at selling the "BTC YIELD" thesis, so the blue line increased over time.
I had to stop on that trade and lick my wounds.
Now, after having listened to every possible speech from MS, I am actually pondering reversing it and using MSTR as a leverage bet on BTC, accruing more sats per unit. I am not sure I am degenerate enough to do so, tough.

On a personal level, I am good enough with just the returns on BTC without the extra complications of third party execution risks, and unknown unknowns that are associated with adding an additional layer of risk - even though surely Saylor seems to have had structured his debt instruments quite ingeniously.

I used some variation of this example earlier. Let's say that I have 35-ish BTC and you only have 7-ish BTC, and both of us have a target to reach about 21 BTC in order to feel that we are at entry-level fuck you status (based on current market conditions and wherever we might be in our lives), so maybe I am sitting back and I am content because I have about 66% more than what both of us consider to be entry-level fuck you status, and maybe I am already living off my BTC and not necessarily earning income from other places.

You on the other hand are about ONLY 1/3 towards your goal, even though we know that with the passage of time, maybe even by mid 2029-ish (it may well be the case that 7 BTC will then be worth the equivalent of today's 21 BTC, so less preferred scenario, you consider that you might be wanting to at least get to entry-level fuck you status, and you might even want to get to a similar situation as me, in which you have around 60% or more extra cushion in the size of your stash, so you keep stacking and you are willing to take some chances, since you might not even be urgently wanting to get into fuck you status until you are sure that you have a large enough BTC cushion.. so if 7 BTC is entry-level fuck you status in mid-2029, you would prefer to have double entry level fuck you status, just to feel sufficiently comfortable when you might start to spend from your BTC stash (rather than being in the process of accumulating it).

I am just suggesting that there could be reasons that guys might not want to overly complicate their investment portfolio, even though MSTR does seem like a good place to potentially outperform BTC, perhaps?

You’ve highlighted some great points about Bitcoin’s appeal as a stable, straightforward investment that avoids third-party risks. The simplicity of holding BTC directly is undeniably attractive, especially when paired with its scarcity and potential for massive future value. While holding 7 BTC could still provide significant financial freedom in the right market conditions, a larger cushion like 35 BTC offers greater flexibility and security, particularly in volatile times. It’s all about finding the level of holdings that aligns with your financial comfort and goals.

Diversification, however, is worth considering. Investments like MicroStrategy (MSTR) can provide indirect exposure to BTC with potential additional upside, but they also come with added corporate risks. Balancing simplicity with calculated risks could be the key to optimizing your strategy. Whether you stick to BTC alone or explore other vehicles, the focus should be on aligning with your risk tolerance while staying adaptable to market dynamics. Ultimately, it’s about achieving both financial freedom and peace of mind.

Building an investment portfolio takes time, and surely we might need to adapt our goals with changes in various aspects of our circumstances and/or even changes in our target asset versus other possible places that we might choose to put our value. There is no real right answer, even for any specific person since a guy may even assess his own particular circumstances badly (or wrongly) and need to make adjustments along the way.

With the 7 BTC example verus the 21 BTC goal versus the 35 BTC example, I was not necessarily wanting to comment on whether 7 BTC might already be enough, yet I was trying to frame it with a hypothetical framework in which each person had considered 21 BTC to be enough bitcoin right now (at this time in the market), yet 1 person was still way under that target (only around 33% to the target) and the other person was right around 66% above the target, and to flush out the example even further, I am not even presuming valuations of the BTC holdings based on BTC spot prices, but instead considering the 200WMA as a way to valuate holdings..

Since our 200-WMA is current at right about $42.2k, 7 BTC would reflect about a $300k valuation, 21 BTC would reflect about a $900k valuation and 35 BTC would represent about a $1.5 million valuation. Yes, I know that spot price is about 142% higher than the 200 WMA, yet any plan that I consider would not be cashing out BTC for cash but instead engaging in some kind of attempt at sustained withdrawal.