Quote from: bitmover on Today at 12:16:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:26:44 AM

Building an investment portfolio takes time, and surely we might need to adapt our goals with changes in various aspects of our circumstances and/or even changes in our target asset versus other possible places that we might choose to put our value. There is no real right answer, even for any specific person since a guy may even assess his own particular circumstances badly (or wrongly) and need to make adjustments along the way.

With the 7 BTC example verus the 21 BTC goal versus the 35 BTC example, I was not necessarily wanting to comment on whether 7 BTC might already be enough, yet I was trying to frame it with a hypothetical framework in which each person had considered 21 BTC to be enough bitcoin right now (at this time in the market), yet 1 person was still way under that target (only around 33% to the target) and the other person was right around 66% above the target, and to flush out the example even further, I am not even presuming valuations of the BTC holdings based on BTC spot prices, but instead considering the 200WMA as a way to valuate holdings..

I find myself in pretty much that situation.
I bought about 5% of my overal portfolio in bitcoin in 2017. I was able to duplicate that stash with signature and other campaigns here. I realized about 20% of it in 2021 bull run (avg price about 55k)

In the end, I have about 40% of bitcoin now, and 60% of a diversified portfolio (about 40% in Brazil bonds, but I feel safe).
I won't be able to accumulate much more bitcoin. Maybe I can buy some more in the crypto winter if the price goes below 50k (which may not happen), but even at $50k it would be very hard to buy one whole bitcoin ( I don't know if I need to add that risk)

We might be deviating a bit from the topic of the thread, since earlier I was trying to provide an example to attempt to describe how one person might be willing (and motivated) to diversify into something like MSTR in order to try to build their BTC holdings faster (which may or may not even be prudent anyhow, yet the person is motivated), and another person might consider that he is in a high enough value of a position that he would not feel any necessity to diversify into something like MSTR.

Yet if we think about the matter, the guy who is already established is probably even in a better position to fuck around with something like MSTR as compared with the guy who is still building his investment portfolio, who might need to stay more conservative until he builds his investment portfolio...

AT the same time, nothing is really black and white in terms of how much risk or how much diversification a guy might want to have in his portfolio while he is building it and then once he reaches certain value thresholds there might be a decent amount of utility to balance out his desires for growth into diversification strategies that are meant to preserve rather than grow value.

I have some personal issues with ideas that growth would come from investing into something like MSTR rather than starting with BTC first, especially since the MSTR is already known to be an additional risk on top of bitcoin, and my own ideas have been that any newbie investor should be able to start out by merely investing only in bitcoin, so they would just balance out their investment with bitcoin and cash, and so depending on how aggressive that they might be in their investment, it could take them 10 years to just build up 1 year's investment of their income into their investment portfolio (10% per year adds up to 10 years), and surely some guys are capable of investing more aggressively, so they will be able to progress more rapidly in terms of the size of their investment portfolio.

I am not really sure if there are any needs to diversify prior to getting your investment portfolio up to some thing close to a year of your income/expenses. Sure if the investment portfolio is also changing value based on changes in BTC prices, then your calculation could also be influenced by such BTC price appreciation while you are building your BTC stash.

Ultimately there is quite a bit of discretion regarding when and how much to diversify.. and if so? into what?

Back to some overall ideas of your description of your own situation. I gather that you are suggesting that if the goal were 21 BTC, you are more like the 7 BTC guy rather than the 35 BTC guy... so you are feeling that you are making progress in your BTC accumulation, yet it is taking a while to build your BTC stash, so you are maybe 1/3 of the way towards what you perceive to be your goal... yet at the same time, from your description, you are valuating your BTC based on spot prices rather than the 200-WMA since in your subsequent (below) remark, you said that you might be close to reaching your goal (which you call FIRE (Financially independent, retire early) - and I frequently refer to as fuck you status) if BTC prices were to reach $250k. Of course, I find that problematic for anyone to be relying on BTC spot prices for valuating their BTC, since from my perspective, it seems to motivate guys to sell large portions (if not all) of their BTC rather than mostly holding onto it and figuring out ways to engage in sustainable withdrawal (whether price based sustainable withdrawal or time based sustainable withdrawal).

Surely when you are describing your own situation as being 40% in bitcoin, surely, that is not any kind of a whimpy BTC allocation, yet part of the problem is that you may well be allowing BTC's price appreciation affect your assessment, since maybe you had not been allocating into bitcoin at 40%, yet bitcoin's growth has caused your portfolio to be 40% bitcoin, and maybe I am also a bit confused by your other 60%, unless you are saying that your investment portfolio is 40% bitcoin, 40% Brazilian bonds and then 20% some other things. Doesn't it feel like we are deviating a bit from this topic, unless you are saying that you might be considering the extent to which MSTR might fit in there? and surely I would not be totally opposed to such an idea, even though I am maybe a little bothered by some of your assessments that might have been allowing your to be reallocating your BTC or selling your BTC at various points in time prior to reaching overallocation.

As you likely realize that my own position is that no one should be selling any of their BTC until they get to a point of overallocation, and surely even my own position can be quite ambiguous when trying to apply to situations in which guys might be still in fairly early stages of building their overall investment portfolio and trying to figure out their fuck you status. I would imagine that if you are using something like $250k BTC as allowing your to reach fuck you status, then how do those numbers come out when you consider the 200-WMA and BTC valuations that are based on the 200-WMA that is currently at about $42,133?

You can do whatever you like, yet I personally believe that in order to figure out how many BTC that you need to reach whatever happens to be your FIRE number, you should be valuating how many BTC that you believe that you need based on the 200-WMA rather than based on BTC spot prices, so that you don't get too carried away by BTC spot prices, make sure you keep building your BTC stash and you are not overly selling too many BTC prior to your actually reaching a status of having more than enough.

I don't want to get too much into your own personal circumstances, yet if we continue to use the idea of 7 BTC and then we look at our current spot price, we get a valuation of right around $700k, and if we look at a BTC spot price of $250k for that same 7 BTC, we have $1.75 million... yet if we look at the 200-WMA for the same 7 BTC, we have a valuation of about $300k I am not sure what those valuations would mean for you, since you would have to figure out your own numbers, and sure within that I have no problem with the idea of diversifying your portfolio including Brazilian bonds, anything else that you have and/or if you might be considering having MSTR in the mix, and surely your goal for BTC might ONLY be one part of your overall investments, and some parts of your investment portfolio would likely be considered as more valuable and other parts less valuable... but hopefully any part of the investment portfolio that you are maintaining has justification in your own ways of thinking for why it is in there and that you are properly assessing its valuation.

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 12:16:19 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 04:26:44 AM

In regards to diversification, it may well be questionable the extent to which MSTR represents diversification, since generally the idea of diversification would be outside of the same sector, and surely, I don't have any problem of splitting up some exposure, but the level of diversification would not really be very great between BTC and MSTR... even though MSTR seems to leverage someone what BTC's already existing volatility.

Maybe in the end, I hope to achieve my FIRE status with just my little btc stash. If BTC price can maintain itself above 250k I will probably retire (I will need to sell some, to make a diversified and solid portfolio to leave my job. Maybe even a house).

But my plan is to always keep at least 20-25% of bitcoin

It sounds to me that you are planning to overly sell your BTC for less valuable assets, so I am not really sure what to say. Nothing wrong with having a house, either.

Many times I suggest that guys mostly let the BTC portion of their investment ride, so I don't really agree with ideas of reallocating of BTC, except maybe very little along the way, but surely only having had clearly reached overallocation.. yet I get the sense that you might be continuously reallocating, so taking out of your winners (BTC) and allocating to your various other losers in order to stay balanced. It is like having a lawn and watering the weeds so that they can keep up with the grass (or whatever your good plants are).

We already know that bitcoin is a killer asset, even though it is quite volatile, yet it is largely volatile to the upside, especially if we are zooming out more than 4 years. Sure it is not guaranteed to go up on a 4-year timeline, but the investment thesis for bitcoin remains quite strong, including that even though BTC prices seem outrageously high right now, there is no evidence that bitcoin's investment thesis is getting any weaker in recent times, even though rich people, institutions and governments seem to be wanting to crowd out retail with their recent attention to bitcoin, but many of the rich people, institutions and governments remain slow to act, and so in that sense normies like us can continue to front-run them by focusing on stacking sats and don't be fucking around with selling any until you clearly have gotten to a state of overallocation... which you have to figure out how many BTC is your "overallocation" level. Again, if we are getting a wee bit too off topic, since I am not even sure if you are considering whether to have MSTR in your investment portfolio, then I don't mind taking this to another thread since it truly seem to have a lot of juicy considerations that a lot of guys likely end up having to weigh out in terms of both their bitcoin accumulation journey, yet also how to maintain such BTC allocation in light of some other investments that they have, too.

Quote from: Poker Player on Today at 06:24:34 PM

Quote from: bitmover on Today at 12:16:19 PM

But my plan is to always keep at least 20-25% of bitcoin

That's one thing that both JJG and I (me later, as I came later to the forum) have repeated countless times: never sell all your bitcoin. Especially now that it is truly proving to be the best asset you can have. If it continues, as it seems to, to appreciate over time as fiat currencies devalue, you will be able to make partial sales while maintaining a nice equity with the remaining bitcoin.

I think that you are saying the same thing as me, Poker Player (or at least something very similar), but you are saying it differently.

I would say, that you should not be authorizing yourself to be selling any of your bitcoin until you have clearly reached a state of overaccumulation, and since there are so many ways to measure overaccumulation, guys seem like they wrongly assess that they have reached such status of overaccumulation before they have, since they are tied to some of the traditional ideas of reallocating their bitcoin, which seems to be somewhat how bitmover is thinking about his BTC stash. Sure, in the end, bitmover, and any other forum member can do whatever they like, yet to me it seems quite short sighted to be reallocating out of BTC based on BTC price appreciation rather than ongoingly, persistently and consistently buying BTC until they are really sure that they have more than enough.

So, getting back to the 7 BTC versus 21 BTC versus 35 BTC example, if a guy has concluded that 21 BTC is currently enough or more than enough, then anywhere higher than 21 BTC would allow him to start to shave off some of his BTC from time to time, and if he is really conservative in his shaving off of his BTC then his BTC value is likely to continue to grow in value faster than he is shaving it off, and then perhaps later he might feel like he can shave off more aggressively.

Yet a guy with only 7 BTC has not yet gotten there, but he knows his target, so he knows that he has to keep accumulating, and even in the less preferable scenarios that he spends several years attempting to accumulate more BTC and he only moves from 7 BTC to 7.25 BTC after another 5 years of accumulating, he likely realizes that another 5-ish or 6-ish years down the road, 7.25 BTC may well be of a similar valuation (including calculating the likely ongoing debasement of the dollar) as the 21 BTC is valued today.. especially if we are using the 200-WMA rather than getting distracted by BTC spot prices. Yes, it is not guaranteed to increase in value as much as we expect, but still, bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best investments currently available, so as you mentioned @Poker Player, it would likely be in our best interests to attempt to remain focused on the accumulation of bitcoin rather than fucking around with other assets, at least until we reach a status of having more than enough bitcoin. Sure the accumulation of some other assets, may well be fine and dandy just to offset some potential and likely ongoing volatility issues of bitcoin, yet keeping our eye on the prize (which is bitcoin) seems to be central to making sure that we are making progress to our own financial freedom (and having more options) kinds of goals.